It's the typical "day 5" loss, followed by a region-crippling blizzard on the NAM at day 3, and then it settles out to be what was forecast at day 6. That's my bet.
30 years ago, I had to make a career decision: meteorology, or psychiatry. I chose the latter. But it wasn't all lost for the former. A good number of my winter-season patients are meteorologists.
My closest neighbor is about 1/4 mile away. But I ended up with someone's 12-foot rubber reindeer halfway up my Norway spruce. What the hell am I gonna do with it??
The pull cord on my brother's generator is busted, so he ordered the plug-in electric cable to start it. Some good that will do when the power's out. He still hasn't realized it.
The storm winds never seem to verify around here. Maybe 1 out of 10 times. What is forecast much better around me are the NW winds on the backside of a departing low.
Same exact thing here on one of my piles! I thought "There goes another cord of dry wood." Woke up this morning and it didn't budge. Had a gust of 22mph here.