Stormpc

1 minute ago, Conway7305 said:

Yeah I see that as well  but also has it mixing with sleet/rain.  I honestly just want to see some snowflakes.  I think even a 1/2 inch would be generous. HRRR short range keeps getting worse for this area.  Sad that a day ago we had 4-6…..lol  

Agree. It's slipping away to the north. Life on the southern fringe of this one was always worrisome.  Never know. Can get a quick inch or two this evening before things push up north and out. Of course I'd favor areas Ashland and north. South of Richmond and toward the airport  not so good. That initial band we hoped for on the GFS for all those days ended up again 75 to 100 miles north. Areas west of DC got their inch from that. At least something's going on. And Thursday Friday looks sort of interesting. Then it gets really cold. So not all is bad

Slipping away to the north. Per usual last minute 50-75 mile adjustment. Never fails regardless of the scenario. Hopefully NAM is wrong.  

GFS loves RIC...SW to NE straight thru the metro. Sharp southern cutoff

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

I will wait and see what the  18z gfs shows  if anything. One thing  is  certain, there  is going to be a warm up after the  snowless  cold  in se va. Im glad  it  looks  like RIC will get at  least  several inches. I was really  hoping for  1 last  cold snowy winter in Newport  News as  i have  no idea the time  i have  left, lol

 

A the end  of the  gfs the  cold  comes  back but  will it  matter  if  it  does?

 

 

That warmth is transient; t's still going to be cold. It'll feel like winter at least. Some Fringe chances as well but you know it doesn't really snow down this way so whatever we get is a bonus. Even 24 or 36 hours of tracking the potential is good enough. At least for me obviously can't speak for you but keep an eye out for surprises. End of the week situation has some wraparound potential for us on the coast. Way out there but you never know.

Love overrunning snow. If that band can start around or south of the naval station in Norfolk and west toward Danville, it can dump on Richmond for many hours (GFS) before lifting North and out of the area. That would be a surprise three or four inches. Maybe not so surprising but at this rate it would be a shocker.

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Flacco storybook coming to an end

Oh it's over. He thought he had his Jets Jersey on. This is more like it.

EURO actually improved in that it's liking the idea of the coastal developing. Closer this time to the GFS but not there yet. Not terrible. Places that get into that first overrunning band may be fortunate enough to have snow flying for almost 24 hours if the coastal gets going quick enough like shown on the gfs. Not that it will amount to much but certainly better than blue skies and wind. I'm still 62 degrees at the house right now!!

12Z GFS holds/ups the ante for HR/NENC. Not going backwards that's for sure. 

The 6z GFS is what CAN happen with that third wave just off the coast. Cold air in place with moisture thrown over top of the Arctic boundary. That's our only winning scenario in Hampton roads. That's also an outlier. Keep watching...we'll see.

45 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Yeah, certainly wasn't ideal, but at least it didn't completely take away the snow. While I recognize it may not be a 6"+ event, I'm still rooting for an inch. 

Worse run for north of Richmond but it actually puts us coasties in the game for some late development with cold air becoming entrenched overnight Tuesday into wednesday. Wirh this kind of scraper, we can luck into an inch or two down this way. Obviously not ideal for the masses, but this is the one scenario where a very few of us can score. 

And things will look completely different by 0z Saturday. Lots of model spread. Let's get rid of this cutter and see what happens tomorrow afternoon. I still feel pretty good about the Richmond area for seeing some snow at least. Hunting the big dog is going to disappoint a lot of people. That's not in the cards right now. However maybe the 20th? Always the next one. Anyway for a hobbyist it should be an interesting and fun three days. Plus we have NFL playoffs except for that Saturday night crap on peacock which I'm not going to get.

Later development, LP further SE after the cold gets entrenched. Great news for RIC and further SE. Not so great up north. Verbatim it's a nice modest hit. Even I see flakes. 25 mins to Chesapeake to see ground coverage.   At least we have something.  I'd be interested if I lived Williamsburg and north. Good fun until 1am. Till tomorrow...

That line just cleared my neighborhood and it was a little shocking. Directly behind the monsoon wind driven rain was  90 seconds of exceptionally high winds probably gusting around 70 mph. Hadn't seen anything close to that since Dorian tore up the neighborhood a few years ago. Lots of banging against the house. We'll find out tomorrow what that was but that was pretty intense.

We got spared the flooding rains. Just some on and off showers until the Squall line moved through. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get one inch total. Anyway that was fun. Looking forward to tracking the next few weeks. 

A lot harder to get snow down my way so I don't even bother looking that far until I see a cold pattern established in the east. Richmond and West can LUCK into certain events but not for us down in the Tidewater or outer banks. We need a hefty Continental snow pack and established cold with Southern stream riding underneath us to hope to grasp anything. Let's see how the deck is shuffled after these two cutter bombs clear.

Anyway it might be an active day. Be safe out there. Check in later if anything interesting is happening.

16 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Peacock Tops 30 Million Subs, Streaming Loss to Peak at $2.8 Billion (variety.com)

Hey we only lost 2.8B, not 3! This is obviously a last ditch effort to save the service. 

Disgusting greed. I hope peacock and NFL suffer immensely because of this. It's about time the NFL takes a hit. Screw them both.

In the immediate we need to look out for possible spin-ups along that Squall line tomorrow evening. Not so sure about the winds even at the vulnerable Coastal locations but some widespread severe may be possible. Interested to see what happens down south later today. The once modeled widespread Heavy Rain event looks more like some showers during the day then a concentrated Squall line to finish it off. I don't think our locales will have any issues with Urban Street flooding. Severe is something to watch for sure. Great job @Ric Airport chasing down possible winter scenarios for the region. Always a nice read. Thank you for that.

55 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

The long range thread is just a bunch of bi polar guys talking past each other. Who wants to be nurse Ratched and perform the lobotomy?

Nurse  ratchett actually lived in Leesburg for a while. Late 90s. The actress.

I bet he gets some looks this week. Need to work him in before the bye week. That being said I have no idea if he has any value whatsoever given the dumpster organization (yes Darkstar) he played with this year. I pray they lose every game for the next 20 years. Such disrespectful crap to feed their fans year and year out. I laugh at the idiot fans that still dress up like buffoons in all their jet gear at Met Life. Laughing stock. I can't do it anymore.  

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

The Ravens signing of Dalvin Cook is interesting. Cant hurt, given the lack of depth at RB with the injuries. I could see them designing a few plays for him to get him out in space- maybe similar to Keaton Mitchell. Not saying he has that kind of speed, but he should have fresh legs after rotting on the bench all season with the Jets.

Hopefully they get something out of him. He was absolutely brutal for the jets. I know they didn't give him any help but when he was in there he was terrible. Unfortunately I'm a fan so I watch every game. So many drops. Missed pass protections. Garbage route running. He mailed it in. Didn't want to be there. But hopefully it works out. Nothing against him. Rooting for the ravens.

Received .32 of rain overnight.  Had some sleet mixed in during heaviest.  Got loud around the windows around 2am. Looks like a parade of rain events for the next 10 days for our area. Then maybe some winter cold after. All good. Can use a break from the rain though.

Just had a quick burst of light snow and grapple mixed in with the last shower that came through. First of the year (season too) on the coast. 

4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I think needbiggerboat 

Yes. That's him. Funny guy.  Roy Scheider avatar.

Finished with 3.14. Nothing this area can't handle. Was a little surprised how flooded the lower lying fields off 168 were. No wind damage whatsoever.  45 mph ain't gonna do it here.

Don't mind the normal or slightly below normal temperatures ahead. I don't need the icebox if it's not going to snow. Getting too old. Doesn't feel as good anymore.

Nice job RIC airport keeping our meager followers engaged in these events. You'll get yours...soon. 

7 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

some place in SC got 13" of rain - absolutely insane for a non-tropical system.

They are saying 15" plus now. With a dew point in the mid-60s down here there's some tropical characteristics for sure

1.47 with first round. Now we see what kind of convective elements come through. Wind just started last 20 minutes where I am at. A few good gusts close to 40. So far pretty much everything according to forecast and plan. "Dangerous" part of the storm is beginning.

Winds gusting mid 50s over Hatteras this past hour. Just now getting breezy up here further up coast, still only 20's but it's going downhill. Already near .5 in so far.