NAM has a nice fronto finger into NYC with several inches of snow before it weakens and moves north. Not sure if that feature is the NAM being the NAM, but maybe something to watch.
I think the better forcing is north for awhile until it wraps up. But you want to see a nice slug of echoes vs banded stuff. HRRR tries to wrap it up good this aftn so we shall see. 35.6 here now.
@ORH_wxman I haven’t looked at MJO stuff but I wonder if a s/w placement change sort of caused those abrupt changes? I’m on my phone and can’t really analyze.
Yep and big height changes out west.
One of the reasons I was saying to Seymour snow why I felt better was the propensity of the SE ridge not to flex on the mean. I’m sure at times it may try, but we aren’t seeing those oranges and reds near the SE coast. Probably related to the EPO ridging being so poleward and also not that huge -PNA trough we saw in December. It’s sort of centered more north.
Wow big change. I’d like to see 00z show that too. Not sure if it’s just that a s/w is in a different spot downstream and keeps the PNA higher or what. It does at least help confirm the trough not digging into it the Baja.
I do want to see the PV further south though. Not that we need arctic air but for confluence purposes would want to see that further south and not retreat north.
I mean these next two events looked like shit for New England and now 50 miles away will have a solid pack by Thursday. So things are changing. We’ll get our turn hopefully.
I don’t feel that negative looking ahead. This week sucks, but the models are giving us chances which is more than we have seen all winter.
We will probably have to deal with cutters too, but that’s just how it goes.