CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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It's also why I am more concerned with interior SC and NC. This is going to be a good hit there wind wise. CLT may gust higher than ATL to be honest.
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The doppler velocity image is telling. Those areas well east of center will get whacked real good.
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That water will get high in Tampa with this a little further east. As soon as the wind goes from SE-SW-WSW..it will pile in.
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It's going to get pretty bad there. Hate to say it.
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Meanwhile mtns of SC will slide into the Atlantic.
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The wind issue to me is east of TLH into the areas near and E of Valdosta to east of Macon and on NNE to western SC. Peak winds anyways. Macon May get it good.
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I was never really sold on the west of TLH to ATL tracks though. I did get a little nervous when those tropical models were stubborn, but it looks like they’ll tick east enough to avoid worst-case.
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Yeah I think ATl and perhaps TLH dodged one. West side of this will certainly be weaker I think.
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Yeah I’m sure they’re probably being careful here. I get it.
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Definitely looks better on IR. So she’s starting the process.
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I think for the surge itself that wording is definitely needed for a 3.
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Looks like an east shift a bit and weaker by NHC.
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It’s got the zit looking towers going up. You want to see more widespread deeper convection. Helene suffering from an acne problem.
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It’s definitely fighting some dry air. Can see it on IR.
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I would guess the dry air issue is factoring into models currently.
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00z early cycle track still west of TLH to ATL, but intensity dropped significantly. More like a high end category 2 borderline 3.
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I’ll look a little more when I put kids to bed, but first glimpse looks good there. Probably cane gusts.
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Yea northern eyewall will be intense just as it makes landfall.
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I think it will apply here to an extent.
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Yeah NHC track would move those winds more to the west.
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Luckily I’m not forecasting lol.
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I’m guessing the winds as it moves north may be skewed more east by the time it gets to ATL latitude. At least I hope.
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One thing to think about is that you need to be east of the eye and not just center for strong winds. So if the eye is large, and it passes over say TLH….theyll get raked, but it will be eastern suburbs that get it. It’s one reason why I think TLH and ATL won’t be on the worst side. Well at least I hope.
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I saw that lol.
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Gfs still stubborn
