CoastalWx

John sometimes gets sensitive with this stuff.   

Boy that's a tough question. If an increase of 1C holds 7% more water vapor and we have been increasing 0.15C-ish per decade across the CONUS (give or take here).....I don't know how you can assert that into snowfall. To me it's more at the mercy of hemispheric nuances that are dictating storm track and temps.  Obviously things don't work linearly in nature. In other words, you can't just say an increase in temps by X-amount means an increase in snowfall by Y-amount. To some degree there likely is an element of AGW...but I remain in the camp that our fortunate run is a result of nuances far beyond AGW. 

Non existent for SNE this year. Like most years. Doesn’t look like a pattern conducive for a SNE hit or even glance.

As a side note to my earlier comment, pretty sure  I read westerlies in ENSO areas  have been rather persistent and anomalous more than expected last several years. Lack of easterlies. Pretty sure that was it. Might also help explain the Pacific temps too. I’ll have to find it. 

The one thing that has been an ongoing signal and looks to be again in 19-20, is this NPAC ridging. Not sure why, but that has been semi-permanent. Maybe it’s related to tropical forcing, maybe other factors like AGW, or perhaps something where we just throw our hands up and say “ I dunno.”  I find that most interesting. 

My point was only to the fact that in prior times, La Niña and El Niño were pronounced features.  Now, the whole pacific is warm. Is going to have an effect on MJO propagation which is big in certain ENSO events.  I’m just speculating. However, I think it is an interesting question. Maybe it doesn’t matter.

It’s hard to grasp how ENSO effects the pattern anymore since the whole Pacific is AN. Seems to most common element lately has been ridging near AK, but that hasn’t always helped us (sorry Steve).

Thanks Bob. Maybe it's old wood. If it dies back, not sure what I can do. Sounds like no way of preventing that?

Question about hydrangea. For some reason ours has not had any real blooms since we planted them a few years ago. Does anyone no why? I did read they should get morning sun and aftn shade and mine sort of get the opposite. Is it possible they are not in the correct "zone" for temperatures? I have no idea what kind these are. 

This has been as green as my lawn has looked so late in the season. While not the extreme lush green like early June, looks great overall. It seems like I lost some of the red thread which is good. Lots of mushrooms though. Will throw on another application before the rain Friday.

Red thread is alive and well. Hopefully we get some dry days. 

Nice stuff Mike.

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The state of Vermont put out some photos of the Stowe landslide in the Cottonbrook area and man, it's pretty impressive.

I still don't get how this happens, it's like the earth just ripped out 25 feet deep and the entire side of the hill avalanched. 

Just tossed the trees like toothpicks.

Fascinating report from the State Geological Survey...

https://dec.vermont.gov/geological-survey/hazards/landslides/cotton-brook

"The main, active landslide area encompasses approximately 14 acres but cracks and scarps in the woods indicate that there are many other detached blocks. There is a high potential for additional failure and trails have been impacted."

Those poor saunas. 

17 hours ago, amarshall said:

Black mulch or nothing... Heavy heavy black

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Looks good. Thank Christ you don't do the orange-red nonsense. 

 Anybody else notice that flowering plants, like dogwoods roses etc. look absolutely amazing this year? Wow. 

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They're north of CON too. (big patch near exit 17), but I haven't seen them flower yet this year. The state usually lets them flower and then mows them back after they drop seed. Eek gave me some lupines a few years ago, but aphids did a big number on them. No problems with the echinacea he gave me.

Yep, there too. Looks great. Makes the traffic that much easier. 

Nice Legro. Looks like a good spot there. That's a nice looking yard for something new. Sometimes it takes years to get established.

Also, my wife is obsessed with the median on 93 in NH. There are tons and tons of daisies and lupines from the MA line to MHT or so. It looks beautiful. She wants to pull over and rip up a bunch every time we drive by...lol. 

Lawn is lush with green nudity. I have a few areas with weeds trying to poke through, but I'll treat those later. Really happy overall. Hope the faucet doesn't shut off. 

Dropped lesco couple of weeks ago for round 2. Yard is about as lush as I can remember. Even though May was just over 4" rain, it was timely. 

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Rich Massholes coming up to the Lake to their lake homes.

Previous owners of the house we are in now, put in a similar tree. Has to be worth thousands. 

Hopefully I don’t jinx it, but I don’t see any gypsy moths and it appears the winter moth caterpillars or whatever those little green worms are....pretty much not apparent. I think I saw one of them. Those things up into a couple of years ago, would tear the oaks apart. Seems like whatever that fungus is, had got them.

12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mishandling the MJO ?  ... like the distribution of upper level divergence ??  

Heh, seems the GFS does this every May though... I wonder if it mishandles the MJO every May...    Actually, it seems to me the GFS ( and GGEM for that matter ) both start curving the isobars cyclonic over the western Caribbean too often beyond 200 hours, regardless of month anywhere between April and early December - you may be right about the MJO but I also wonder if it's just an artifact of those particular physical models way out in time, also.

In any case, the prediction is near normal for this year....   They're predicting "two to four" (whatever that means...) majors canes, which presumably mean 6 or so total...  and 12 sub cane TCs... blah blah but, these numbers didn't mean shit in 1992

Yeah basically the gfs would immediately stop the eastward progression of the wave. It conveniently did this over the carb a few days ago. 

Gfs mishandling of MJo caused bogus cane. Looks to be mostly gone now.

Maybe Tamarack knows this, but any reason why seemingly healthy oaks have had trouble leafing out completely? When I look at a couple of my oaks..it looks like they have little buds, but no leaves. Indeed I have two trees that look like a third of the tree just did not leaf out. There are no caterpillar issues so curious what is going on. 

First mow yesterday.