CoastalWx

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Anyone want to tell me about correlations and May again. Record NAP predicted.  Sh itty days but bearable this time of year. Same peeps who called for Morch called for Mayorch. It's happens right Brian?

If you have a highly anomalous block like this, of course it will have an effect. That doesn't mean the correlation is wrong as a whole. Also, we also mentioned where the block sets up matters. This goes west for a time and has a larger effect.

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I don't take a lot of solace if there's a lot of 49/47s in there that mute the total anomaly a bit because the low temps were +6.

 

I guess we'll see. If the ULL ends up a bit north, then we could escape the worst of it...maybe even get a few days over 60 with self-destructing sun in the afternoon. But right now, everytime it looks like the turd is finally going to be flushed, it regenerated another swirl in the toilet bowl south of LI. So we'll def need a trend away from that.

 

GFS actually looks like some higher terrain flakes next week?

I could buy the GFS. For a time it may be more W-NW flow with self destructive sun, but eventually that thing sags south and low pressure develops offshore along with Sarah Mclachlan playing in the background.

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ah...the admiral of arctic. The next couple of weeks look meh, but I'm not too worried about 2m temp anomalies of -0.3C over the next 46 days. Give me some consistent westerly flow/high pressure and sun by mid month and those temps would be nice.

Unless it's the highs driving the anomalies.

That was a hell of a run. That would have flakes in higher elevations.

Oh euro. -10C at 850 over NY LOL.

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For a lotta while?

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don't think I've had a BN May since 2007 and I think that was barely BN. We've had some nice ones recently.

Yeah we have been lucky. Oh do we shiver at the thought of the many Spring of the early to mid 00s. 

46 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We're due for a crappy May

Imagine if you installed.

A big LOL to  this pattern. We cutoff. 

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It's days that are sunny until 11:00 am then clouds build..maybe a shower then clears at night. Rinse repeat. Probably averages out N to Bn , but none of this  cold and snow that folks are calling for

What?  Anyways, looks pretty meh for warm weather. Seasons in seasons.

In fact the EPS parks it overhead for days. Looks like higher ele FTL.

Looks rather BN to me. The axis parks overhead for a little while.

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

While CT sectors tomorrow 

Make take awhile for you.

Nice elevated storms moving in along 850 return flow.

57 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Something I've noticed is if you want to avoid the undesirable impacts of a BD up here in spring, push it well south/southwest, that way the low level easterly flow is more nuanced and you have Surface HP overhead. Even with a CP  air mass the sun can then do its work, and the lack of wind further improves the sensible weather conditions. In sum if ACY is socked in clouds with strong E/NE winds, like it is today, chances are we salvage a nice day.

Yeah sometimes when you push it well SW, you get drier air advecting in.  I've seen it clear at the coast first while areas in CT are socked in. What screws us is when the front hang up just south of us like tomorrow will have.

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

PVD 87 FTW

Tough times for the Captain of Cold.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Freaks days of 40's and rain looking less and less likely . I think that's all most folks care about 

?

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

12z Gfs and Euro both have cut off in SE vs over northeast. Big changes today. Hope they hold.. despite what Freak wants 

The ensembles are below normal through the period with rain at times. Tuesday and Wednesday look good next week. Of course you can have some DSD at times, but I did not see a wholesale change except for the op runs showing 1 day less of rain.

Looks rather unsettled at times. I don't see all dry NW flow

33 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Thoughts on thunder chances for Sat morning?

It may be more south coast, but it's there.

Sure glad we did not install. Enjoy the drafts.

More wetness next week. Interesting 180 flip from last Spring.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

right - that too... The lowering grandient means the "pattern" modulation its self is faster... I thinking that as quick as the NAO domain can vary inside of a month, it may even have gradient rate-of-change in May, which makes the correlation tuff..

I just i dunno i think I still don't feel comfortable thinking -NAO in May is completely useless - not that anyone said it is of course. Oh wait -

There does seem to be a wet correlation to a May -NAO. So, if we are going by...say high temps...there might be some sort of relationship to cooler high temps if there is a wet correlation to the -NAO. Perhaps temps as a whole don't tell the story because marine flow levels the low temp/high temp playing field. That would involve more research.

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

-NAO has very little correlation to temps in Mayorch. It promotes NW flow which will be warm dry pattern and cool nights first week 

It can also promote cooler and wet weather. It depends how the trough sets up. Regardless, that certainly is not a torch look. Seasons being seasons.

If the ensembles are correct, gonna be tough to get a Mayorch.