CoastalWx

GFS SOS!

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Flooding issues on the gfs 

Euro was rather slow too. 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I think we know which one is wrong. 

Probably the euro op. 20th or bust. It does not mean every day will suck..but INMO..that's when pattern shows signs of changing.

Week 3 wasn't that warm verbatim. Gotta watch those height anomalies north of us. Sometimes that can mean sneaky HP. My guess is we are in this mess until the 20tj or so. Doesn't mean every day sucks...hell could be a few downslope dandies in there. But the overall pattern of troughing in the east looks to hold through mid month at least.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Little deuce coupe?

Tip, rhea as in diarrhea.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well... I was thinking about Hershey but I wasn't sure how I was supposed to make the leap from Rhea to that - 

I suppose just looking at the weather charts should have lent a clue, huh -   lol

It's the kind of number 2 movement you do not want.

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

dude I'm tryin' -

don't say anything ...I wanna figure this out

When you're sitting in a chevy and you're feeling kind of heavy...........

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have to admit ... no idea what is meant by a "wheel of rhea"  

Rhea is a type bird?  but ...other than that... interesting. 

anywho, I saw improvements over night in the longevity and depth of the trough/cut-off and attending cold...  May be too early to establish as real trends, but ...let's keep in mind that the whole bag is really stressing climo in order to be "that bad" so... some backing off that scale and degree of horror could work. 

You can't guess?  Anyways euro continues the mess through day 10. Maybe a couple of days where it's ok.

55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

"Wheel of 'rhea" is a great name for that ULL, lol. That thing is just putrid...we'd probably love it if it were 2 months ago though.

 this is the setup where Ginxy would be pantless for half the month tracking ULL snows and WINDEX events.

And models have a substantial cold shot after mid month too. Wheel of 'Rhea hopefully can produce some interesting wx in the form of flakes for some.

That was a humid end to summer. There was nothing cool about it.

That is a Wheel of 'Rhea for sure.

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

So much for the Euro backing off the ULL. At 192 hrs the ULL is centered over Albany, after spending almost all weekend and early next week rotating around Southern and Central New England. 

Lots of self destruct days and below freezing 850mb temps for the entire period. In fact next Tuesday -4 to -8C 850mb temps make it as far South as the Delmarva. 

That's an ugly look for sure. The real Uzi in the throat is whether or not that ULL sinks far enough south to either develop low pressure SE of ACK, or swing some sort of a TROWAL of **** over is like the op does.

14 minutes ago, tamarack said:

More than just that weekend.  I recorded 25 days with rain that month, 23 with measurable, and 9 days which failed to get above 50, all with rain.  The 8.20" precip was just over twice my May avg.

The 18z GFS keeps the ULL around through day 10, ending up in the Gulf of Maine as yet another closed 500mb low enters the TN Valley. The current system almost moves into a 50/50 position, reinforcing the block. Meanwhile another major rain maker cuts across the Deep South with aim on the East coast around mid-month, trying to cut off again. It's almost a nightmare scenario verbatim for warm weather enthusiasts in the Northeast.

Floods on the Ramapo, and Pompton/Passaic?

Yeah I just meant that most people remember that month because it was highlighted by the unofficial start to summer having a nor'easter. That actually caused decent coastal flooding. My ex-girlfriend lived on the beach in the Green Harbor section of Marshfield. The waves were hitting the sea wall so hard, my drink on the coffee table was getting ripples in it. Like something from Jurrasic Park.

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He's acting like it's May 05 again. A few days of sunny mornings and pm cu buildup and scattered showers and 50's isn't end of world stuff

That's debatable. It could be an overall long period of crappy weather. 3 hrs of sun when max temps are at 11am and then fall all afternoon under ocnl shwrs don't really do it for me. May 2005 was not bad every day, but it was known to be a lousy month which probably was remembered due to ****ty memorial weekend.

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol...try to twist those maps into something warm and pleasant.

I did laugh at his comment. Good one. 

13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Agreed.

And the run to run nuances regarding the different spokes of energy and shortwaves pinwheeling around the upper low certainly lead to a low confidence forecast. 

Long range guidance is hinting at the possibility of another closed low in nearly the same position around day 10, so I certainly wouldn't be forecasting a ridge to return to the East anytime soon.

Basically it's a question of several days of 45 and rain vs 52-62 (sorry tolland hills about 52) and self destructive sun. Is the alternate that much better? Personally I'm fine with it. Let summer come in summer. Get the yard and plants well watered and established.

25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

On the 12z EPS mean the ULL finally is absorbed around day 10 with no real signs of a rebound until after May 15th.

This run trended cooler in the east. 

People also need to understand the behavior of this. It's not about the pretty blues 20,000' up..it's also how it drops south. You can have a "weak" ULL south of us, but if it stalls and generates low pressure...forget it. It's not as easy as saying "ooh look...it's one shade less dark!!!"

That's a Ginxy jacky there.

Lol. A few days of low 60s.

I remember may 96 as well. I think we had catpaws, but iirc...there were reports of snow even near south coast with heavier echoes there.

I saw some great pics of snow on the patio furniture at my grandparents house in Hyde park. That was definitely several inches. 

6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

So you are saying a strong west NAO correlates to temps in May as was originally posted then refuted, let's remember the original post and subsequent rebuttals.

 

Not sure what you mean. A near record block can and will effect weather even if typical correlations aren't as robust. Fwiw, there was more of a correlation to wet weather which I than mentioned perhaps affecting high temps more so than cold temps. But that was more anecdotal. 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

 Using a total month as a correlation without breaking block intensity down in that correlation is the issue. Also correlation can be higher earlier in the month of May. As shown many times using correlation over an entire month leads to inaccurate  amoothed out numbers. If the response earlier included only NAO numbers over say 200 in the first two weeks of May then we would have useful numbers to look at

 

LOL, thanks for the tip. It still doesn't change the data. Anomalous blocks cause anomalous weather. I don't think time of month has a big difference. You aren't going to see the early part and late parts of the month deviate cause a net cancellation in the correlation means. We also said many times that if you have a well placed strong block, it will make a difference. 

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Say no to heating but can't wait to run the AC 24/7 in late April and early May.  You are an interesting cat.

That doesn't mean I want it to be 42F like you will reply, but let's just do some 75/45 for a while.  That'd be nice.

Seasons in seasons. Let them be.