CoastalWx

I’m near the bottom. Need to work up some CJ magic.

Uncle leo!

DayQuil followed by NyQuil.

Eh I wouldn’t sweat it luke. Guidance has been wild lately.

Temps may be borderline, but regardless it’s an interesting solution.

Yeah that is a flip to snow at the end of that one.

Yeah that’s a hell of a month up there

Yeah deepen the low that Far East and it will limit the taint trying to move in due to WAA from parent low.

Canadian really deepens the low and slows down to drop some white to end too. Maybe we can get a little block East of Hudson Bay with this, but it needs work.

Yes it did. Some guidance had it over SE MA a day prior. Looked like it went near outer cape? That’s certainly going to limit some of the modeled warming from 850 or so.

It’s not meant to be CC. It’s stemmed from an earlier discussion.

It looks wedgy where you are into Nrn Ma on gfs. Granted it may not be below freezing but just saying.

Gfs looking CAD-ish next storm.

Oh cool. I’ll have to play around with that. Thanks.

Where do they hold data for levels like 850mb? I haven’t seen that.

Kevin thanks again for filling in the numbers for those of us who do not. I’ll look back at the log in info and try to do that myself. I like the addition of details like what Dave did.

It worked. That’s sweet.

What were your totals in other storms? I know you had 25” on the first. That’s dam good.

The natural human behavior to use any reasoning above as a way to deny or prove CC just shows you are dumb we are as a society and that we live in the dumbest time possible in our lives. We’ve become polarized with this topic and it’s become a with us or against us mentality. It’s really sad. I just want to know what is happening without being polluted by agendas. Unfortunately it’s tough Get non-biased information these days. But I digress.

How much there, Will? edit saw your text.

A lot of the mesoscale models really drove the warmth well into Maine which I found peculiar. I’m not sure why that’s the case or perhaps they didn’t give the ageostrophic component enough respect, but even a loft they looked just a little bit too warm once you get into Maine. I will say I remember thinking in my head that a small area may do well. You could see it was a long duration storm.

Yep there is no question it’s been warm and things like that are likely related to CC. I’m just approaching from a social science standpoint. It’s easy to have recent confirmation bias and blame CC. Small scale things however (like a time scale of a few months) really drive the bus.

I think there is a point, but you’ll need like 50 years of data to really see. It may be effect things like ENSO analogs etc, but you can’t pinpoint things to specific winters. The climate is very complicated and small scale things will always Trump background AGW for the near future. For example, the winters of 13-14 and 14-15 were brutal in the US. People blamed a warm pool in the GOA, but those warm pools do little to effect the pattern. Naturally cold water that is a few degrees above normal has little power to disrupt hemispheric patterns. However, if you dig deep..you would see that we had a low frequency standing wave pattern with the MJO that was conducive to 500mb ridging over west coast US. That in turn led to warm GOA sea temps. We all rushed to blame CC, but the real answer seemed to be in the tropics. Now can CC effect MJO? Perhaps and you’d need to spend some time on that. So, CC tells us to expect more things like warm temps and storms, however small scale details like ENSO, solar, PV placement etc really drive the bus.

You really have no evidence to point the finger at climate change for the reason of this winter or that winter. It is way more complicated than that, but it’s human confirmation bias that naturally allows us to do that.

It’s tough to say. On paper it’s dam ugly. But we’ve seen setups that were ugly, shift subtlety with day to day changes to something more favorable. Who knows. Prepare for boredom and hope for the best. All you can do. Hopefully the 7-8 works out.