CoastalWx

Ain’t happening

We P Day. Great event.

Stout looking bears.

If I lived in the outer banks this week I’d be doing that lol. Get some sleep ant.

Ground too warm, ratios, temps.

Go back to bed.

This winter had some things going for it to start among the colder and snowy analog years following a cold November and snowy December. But alas they don’t always work out. Some of the sub seasonal trends were favorable too until the big AK vortex set up. AK was due for some cold too.

No not necessarily. I look at it and go...”eh.” Last year we got a storm in a meh pattern early March, so it happens. But March 2018 ain’t walking through that door. No -NAO.

For me personally, it looks strange. The EPO is sort of cut off at AK with some lower heights hanging around there, on the EPS. However, you have NW flow into the US dumping colder air. I don’t have a good feel for this, but there isn’t really anything that sticks out as exciting for me anyways. It doesn’t mean something can’t happen....but nothing stands out.

Congrats Cape Hatteras later this week.

Gotta give the Pope snow of the white stuff.

Anyways, Hopefully we can get some more events coming up.

Not sure you looked at radar, but it was shredded by 5-6am. Temps near and below 32. And yet those borderline areas still had 3". It had nothing to do with ratios etc. Nobody expected fluff. But a prolonged event of 0.3"to 0.5" QPF was expected before a flip. The main action stayed closer to the LLJ near the south coast which does happen. Temps were not the issue. Hell I wetbulbed to near 32F from being 38F on the coast south of Boston with snow and sleet. If temps and lift were the issue, we wouldn't have had more snow to the south of the areas progged to get several inches.

We had 2-3" just south of the border. That was modeled. It quickly dwindled to very little past like exit 5 of 93 in NH. That was not modeled. We even had numerous posters saying how bad radar looked. It got to the mid 30s after it ended. Nobody expected a foot, but 4-6" turned into 1-3".

I think So Cal is actually doing ok precip wise? The flow has been such where Nrn CA is screwed, but srn CA has done ok.

Is that the same guy who tweeted no snow to the Canada border yesterday?

It all fell to the south. 2-3" at the border. Less near MHT and points ENE because the good echoes never got there. It was not mild ground.

Yeah I don't buy that rationale either.

But the problem was the lack of QPF. It was cold enough.

At least in 11-12 you knew it was hopeless throughout. This year is teasing enough to keep us interested with some snow down to the nrn high terrain of SNE. In 11-12...you had no hope. The teasing definitely irates me.

I don’t see how this storm is any different than normal subseasonal stuff that results in pattern changes. Sounds like an easy way to point a finger, but it’s probably more complicated then one storm. I also caution how far out we are....pattern changes aren’t a complete lock....or should I say a favorable pattern change for us, is not a complete lock.

That Storm was modeled well and guidance isn’t really forcing a big ridge there at the moment. I’m not sure something will miraculously change on guidance, but the massive +AO vortex will weaken a bit later this month.

?

There is still that window of opportunity late month into early March. I haven’t seen that change. After this week we warm again until late month.