CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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Yeah see my post above. Still needs work, but better.
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Is this supposed to be breaking news?
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I’ll take 16-17 despite the pack never surviving. Two great storms and another one that was epic for deep interior.
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The Giant Marketing dept may be bagging groceries at Giant after that one.
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Basically all 3 sets of guidance have a similar look with ridging out west and troughing in the east later in the 11-15 day. The problem is that it’s early in the season and Canada is not cold initially. I think we’ll need to see 2-3 successive cold pushes into the US before anything interesting happens.....as long as guidance doesn’t change.
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Enjoy the Vid, it’s the only Vid you’ve got.
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Leaves are pretty much down except for the typical stragglers. Brother in laws helped do cleanup since I can’t. Earliest cleanup since I’ve been here.
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We pray.
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Pants tent today in low 60s.
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Yeah seems like the eps maybe trying to look closer to that, but we’ll see what 12z does.
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That’s the 12z GEFS.
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Can’t say this is what a typical Niña December looks like.
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Yep. Thought the same.
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Wouldn’t be far from climo in my area lol.
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It will take awhile. Looked like the trough was lifting out......perhaps eventually being replaced by dateline ridging if we do get forcing into the maritime continent. That would get Canada cold, but also force a SE ridge perhaps at some point in December. Tough to say and always dangerous to extrapolate.
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We outside. We deal. No inside. Maybe Friday.
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Looks like a white knuckle drive for Brian early Monday?
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I think 50/50. Models all Over but I’m optimistic.
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That’s how I feel as well.
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Yeah we know MJO diagnostics themselves can vary from guidance, but if you look at the chart with the VP potential....you can see the IO has been active. You’d think that if we shift the easterlies near the dateline like it shows, maybe it migrates towards the maritime contingent or even better.....further east?
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Other than a small interruption at the end of October, you can see we’ve had a pretty strong underlying signal in the IO.
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Just poking around, maybe the easterlies near the dateline and MJO trying to move east will shuffle things around a bit.
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It’s definitely been a trend. Frankly, I haven’t looked deeply as to what is driving it, but this wasn’t just one run.
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GEFS and EPS trying to a little more Aleutian trough look and pumping up the PNA. We need to build a little more cold in Canada, but that’s been a subtle trend I’ve noticed.
