I'm still leery of these things when convection gets going and then you get that last minute move sometimes. I dunno....you could come up with reasonable arguments on both sides.
It’s too bad it did that. But I find within 72 hours it does incremental shifts. I’d rather that vs models jumping all over. Plus we knew EPS was NW all along so take euro op with caution.
Some signs of maybe a convection element too. IOW I wonder those closer to mixing line just rip insane rates even though it’s borderline. The soundings do show steep lapse rates.