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CoastalWx

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. So to me this makes sense. Compare 00z GEFS and 06z GEFS. - At 00z Monday you can see the srn stream on the 6z run is a bit east of the 00z position. - Nrn stream at 06z appears a little more strung out and weaker. All the energy at 00z is in the back of the s/w which will tighten it up. - Confluence north of New England looks better, especially as you advance 12 hrs.
  2. It certainly matters. A track near CHH would greatly limit the influx of warm air from the ocean to like 925-850.
  3. I still have no idea how to read those sensitivity charts, but makes sense knocking down the ridge a bit would shove things east down. Although I think a strong nrn vort is a risk of picking up the srn vort.
  4. Because in general it’s better than the GEFS. Too many weenies using anecdotal evidence. I will say the GEFS have done better long term.
  5. Gfs op still sucked south of pike even inland. I wouldn’t lose my wad to that.
  6. The gfs op had had short term busts too. Whatever models show the most snow, weenie will hump.
  7. GEFs overall have been better with the long term, but in short term I don’t know if you can say the same.
  8. I won’t say it’s 0% chance, but when everything else is west, it’s tough for me to buy.
  9. 6z EPS is out too. Every single model including gfs op is west of the GEFS. They are the outlier.
  10. EPS is so amped. I’ll sell GEFS. Maybe in between, but I don’t see an offshore look with this setup and retreating high.
  11. I’ve seen many instances that screw your and I from more than like 2-3”. That flow is terrible. Get that high slower to retreat and a little more confluence with a low more near the Cape, and it would be much different.
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