CoastalWx

What a bunch of creeps.

That might be the closest to fruition lol. We’ve been rocked by decent storms in October. tober

Yep. Canes in the summer, blizzards in winter. All at day 15+.

Yeah I mean I look ahead, but 10 years ago I was all into what the indices mean, mtn torque, GLAAM.....all that voodoo.

Or I could be totally wrong lol. I don’t really get into the long range voodoo much anymore. Just care more about the here and now.

Looked like fun. Hopefully will make the next one.

Here is an example. This is current day 10 prog vs day 15 valid for December 1. It’s not totally far off, but look how potent the trough is near AK and into GOAK. It’s a bit further east too. Yeah day 10 looks chilly, but that’s about to be booted out of here right after day 10. To me the current prog looks more realistic for that timeframe. I do think it changes after first week.

It’s keeping the low around the AK area more persistent. Probably due to Pacific reshuffle and in tandem with Nina base state. So in other words, there probably wasn’t much going for some of those model solutions of western NAMR ridging being persistent? That’s my guess. There is a lot of volatility in the pattern. For instance guidance looks much better in the Pacific compared to yesterday, but now more of a positive NAO. I just think we are seeing things shuffle around and people are just going to have to be patient. It’s going to be awhile for snow chances outside of maybe NNE.

One thing I noticed this morning is that the tropical convection forecast on the EPS does finally try to nudge east. I think some of those PNA forecasts going boom was due to convection more closer to Nina climo. The nudge east supports more of a dateline ridge probably after first week of December. EPS tries to show that. In that graphic below, look how far west the convection is. That’s probably not supportive of a -EPO to +PNA ridge for more than a few transient days despite what the models showed last week and the week before. But, it finally shows signs of moving east which supports more dateline ridging. Now to make sure we are on the good side of the gradient.

How many deep?

It’s not terrible, but a change for a few days as mentioned earlier in here. Looks more nina like with dateline Ridging at the end.

Man EPS lost that EPO ridge. What a change in two days. Hit the snooze button for awhile.

You’re not even married yet. Don’t be a puss.

I’ll be on a plane. Wish I could land at ORH!

Enjoy people. Hopefully we can do one in the winter. Will wolfie have long hair and fangs?

It’s basically mid Atlantic Fall now when people are high-fiving for 28 degrees.

I’d say after T-day it looks much better up that way. This would work.

The trough in AK is sort of before the 11-15 day and spills into it a bit, but the end of the run looks like the dateline ridging starts taking hold. That would likely lead to a more gradient look down the road.

The 11-15 day:

EPS looks pretty good overnight IMO.

Yeah agree. Still may be ok in the far interior I suppose. The mean sort of hinted at something interior around day 10. Luckily it’s not a total chinook.

Same.

Rains to Maines and snow for Tblizz?

I have one. Just not a backpack blower.