CoastalWx

Hopefully that was a compliment lol.

Back in the Nina 07-09 days, the GFS was classic in that it would have a low modeled southeast of the benchmark and come back 200 miles NW in 4-5 days. The euro typically did much better with these and ended up closer to correct.

Will explained it well earlier. Couple of things. One being the nrn stream s/w as we know can be underestimated. So that may trend a bit stronger although not always. The other is the southeast ridge. Guidance seems to underestimate that several days out, and then slowly gets modeled a little stronger on guidance. So if you are really unlucky, you have the combo of that to bring this north a bit with each run. Sometimes it's usually like 70/30 a combo. But it's not a myth, and still seems to occur. Now the flow is progressive, so it is possible this remains sort of sheared out.

I just found it did so well in mesoscale events like that.

I think I was one of two fans of that model, but it nailed the pre Christmas ice here (2017?) The Christmas snow in 2017, and then the nasty icing event in January 2019. Will and Ray, this was the storm that started at the GTG in ORH as flurries. It was driving the cold into SE MA when nobody...I mean nobody had it near even 128.

Me taking down OCM forecasts with the Swiss back in the glory days.

Bring back the Swiss model. That thing was going Commando on the other models in CAD. Arnold Schwarzenegger on model temps with rocket propelled grenades and AR-15s to the GFS back in 2017-2019.

LOL, I'd have to see what the upgrade tweaked. But if that is messed up, boy is that bad.

It never used to do that though. At least IMO. I hope this isn't an issue.

Look at hr 132-144. The surface warms awfully quick as winds back inland. Maybe ZR latent heat? I find that a little suspicious.

Maybe it's real, but I have noticed the euro seems awfully quick to torch interior areas. Keep an eye on that. Those assholes better not have tweaked it so that it shits the bed in CAD now.

We want those highs curled over our fannies, not tickling Bermuda.

Even with it sheared out, look how warm it gets aloft. Cold air above the surface disappearing quicker than Kevin's 4-8" call on Monday.

More like Canadian. Sheared out. Ukie got its act together quickly. S/W energy sheared in progressive flow.

Euro is definitely more sheared out. Good.

It does look good for NNE. It wasn't terrible for you, but better up there. I also said I think nrn tier of MA is good for several inches regardless of what any model shows.

Steve too busy gyrating and didn't see the GFS outcome?

Colder or not it still stunk lol. What was wrong with my post?

I think nrn tier of MA is a decent shot for several inches.

Yeah and on a solution like the Ukie, I saw 500 sharpening and said "here we go" before I saw the surface. I was surprised when I saw it, but the low was sort of already festering before the nrn stream got to it. So yeah, I agree..unless the energy is sheared..it will likely not be a Canadian or even Ukie deal. But, never say never I guess this far out.

Yeah I was thinking the same. Some of those solutions naturally have HP in a better placement too.

Tries to amp and pull an Ukie last minute, but sheared out. I will say the flow overall is progressive, so I think a cutter idea is likely not happening.

That's a nice look on the GEFS too. Would be nice along pike and north away from water and probably into nrn CT too.