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CoastalWx

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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. CoastalWx
    Both models seem to have a cluster SE of ACK and then way SW of ACK. Or course the mean will be in the middle...but it's likely one or the other.
  2. CoastalWx
    12z AI ensembles a little east but good hit. Curious to see deep mind later.
  3. CoastalWx
    2 months worth of rain too lol. Still too early to lock anything.
  4. CoastalWx
    Serious coastal flooding on that run.
  5. CoastalWx
    Euro backing in a little later. Definitely a precarious setup.
  6. CoastalWx
    Care more about track vs strength though. AI a nice hit.
  7. CoastalWx
    12z guidance all showing the piece of nrn stream vort coming due south into New England does not phase in to the west, but moves on top and helps squash this.
  8. CoastalWx
    Canadian east too. He's got this.
  9. CoastalWx
    It would be fitting to start fall right where we exited summer....boredom.
  10. CoastalWx
    GFS is pushing in the H5 ridging into New England to keep the storm further offshore.
  11. CoastalWx
    Hopefully it shits itself, but that is in the envelope of solutions. Also subtle shift east overall I thought on all 6z despite the retro west.
  12. CoastalWx
    The Perfect Stein on the GFS suite. Op and AI.
  13. CoastalWx
    I meant ICON.
  14. CoastalWx
    Ukie slings this towards the Cape. Just dumbells in.
  15. CoastalWx
    Lets see if 12z can make this "The Perfect Stein."
  16. CoastalWx
    Deep mind has a group of tracks bending west south of the islands too.
  17. CoastalWx
    FWIW both euro and euro ai ensembles came NW.
  18. CoastalWx
    I noticed that too, it’s a subtle shortwave then all the sudden it deepens with multiple contours at H5. But I think that’s also in response to cyclogenesis too. We see that in winter a lot, only strong s/w and more closed contours at H5. I don’t necessarily have an issue how it’s modeled, it’s more the track and how each vort lobe location dictates where the low migrates to.
  19. CoastalWx
    Obviously we are weenie projecting, but decent NNE ageo flow there with strong HP N and NW.
  20. CoastalWx
    You’d be buried alive in winter.
  21. CoastalWx
    6z euro stalls and then moves west towards ACK. It’s like 40-50kts+ on the coast for over 24 hours.
  22. CoastalWx
    6z euro is probably worst case here for coast. Jesus.
  23. CoastalWx
    No that would weaken pressure gradient
  24. CoastalWx
    Obviously some disagreement which is expected with such an anomalous setup. Would love for this to strengthen over Gulf Stream and swing west, south of SNE
  25. CoastalWx
    6z euro AI went a little east and then swung west from ACK to BID.
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