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CoastalWx

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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. CoastalWx
    Both NAMs figuring it out now. Not trying to bury it immediately towards WAL.
  2. CoastalWx
    Hrrr trying to wrap this towards Wallops Island lol. That’s cute.
  3. CoastalWx
  4. CoastalWx
    OKX should have a high wind warning for LI and maybe even srn CT. JMHO.
  5. CoastalWx
    I don’t think it will get convection near the center type deal. It will have some tropical characteristics, but this is more of a hybrid transitioning to a more classic nor’easter. These happen right into October. It’s unusual though to have something like this so early.
  6. CoastalWx
    Well you are right, cyclogenesis is complicated by nature. But when the stakes are high, it makes it seem more complicated then it is. If that makes sense.
  7. CoastalWx
    Well in this case there’s a ton going on. System with tropical characteristics within and upper level low.
  8. CoastalWx
    This is tough to resolve on guidance.
  9. CoastalWx
    2-3” there
  10. CoastalWx
    Sorry, was busy. Yeah comes north a bit more than euro before peeling west which is better gradient from CT to here.
  11. CoastalWx
    Gfs is good
  12. CoastalWx
    Nam may be doing Nam things along with the other hi res. It’s also putting a low where there is no low currently. It’s northeast of where models have. Not sure if that means much yet.
  13. CoastalWx
    I’ll slap some sense into him.
  14. CoastalWx
    I will say the euros was a long duration coastal battering. Tides get higher until Monday too.
  15. CoastalWx
    Stalls east of Jersey and then goes NE over SE MA.
  16. CoastalWx
    12z euro AI a little more east and then violent sling west.
  17. CoastalWx
    HWW here now. Would think that’s coming. Long Island could get the best winds out of all of us.
  18. CoastalWx
    Jesus hope you heal up Jeff.
  19. CoastalWx
    Nam is kind of a no show.
  20. CoastalWx
    Let’s bury this in Maryland
  21. CoastalWx
    Convective models will go wild in these setups.
  22. CoastalWx
    6z euro op is real nasty here. 6z AI about the same as 00z. Euro op continues to flop around.
  23. CoastalWx
    It’s possible the storm might try to move west twice. Once late tonight and tomorrow, and then it moves kind of northeast and then starts moving north then Northwest south of Block Island. But that angle of approach will matter. The other question I have is the rain squalls. There definitely might be some squally rains with this models aren’t really all in agreement in terms of how much but it should be a good drink across most of southern New England.
  24. CoastalWx
    I think I did mention that a couple days ago in a post. But honestly to me that doesn’t matter in terms of sensible Weather. I’m just trying to figure out where the storm is going and what the winds and rain will be. It may briefly attain tropical characteristics, but once it gets towards 40 north, it’ll definitely become more subtropical.
  25. CoastalWx
    I think so. Consensus seems like a loop south of BID, maybe west to south of ern LI and then lifting NE from there. Seems like biggest question is angle or approach before loop. That will dictate best winds and potential coastal flooding.
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