I’m not exactly sure we see much if any effects from the Strat split. In fact if the PNA tries to get slightly negative like some guidance shows by mid Novie, the east could get quite mild.
Any lag would be perhaps later November to start, but all the guidance into December continues to show a classic strong Nino look overwhelming any Strat coupling. We shall see, but I’m not hopeful on anything more than a cool spell here or there.