CoastalWx
-
Posts
177,366 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by CoastalWx
-
That area east of Albany is getting annihilated
-
Looks like Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast mass are up next for some good heavy downpours
-
I know, but today it looks exceptionally bad.
-
Still drunk?
-
I will say the rain over Southwest CT is not Uber heavy at least.
-
Look at the rain returns from BOX versus OKX. It’s quite the difference there.
-
Man why is BOX running so much “hotter” than OKX or any other radar.
-
Check out Albany radar. You can see that the flow just off the deck is coming in from the west north west right towards the Hudson Valley while it’s SE near and SE of Albany. Just a classic convergence corridor wringing out all this rain. Gonna be big-time issues there.
-
That said, they’ll be some enhancement when that moisture does make it into the upslope SE flow zones.
-
And Nam too far SE
-
The biggest totals will be west of them I think. I saw a lot of talk from many around here on TV about upslope and all that probably because hi res love to treat every 500’ hill as the Sierra. But it’s all about convergence as we spoke about. That area getting crushed is downsloped on SE flows. Atmosphere don’t care when there is a good convergence zone and moisture conduit off the deck.
-
Yeah for the entire system Hudson valley ftw. Low looks a little east of earlier guidance.
-
Here it comes for SWCT. Just as we suspected.
-
I still think he’ll get a decent drink. Although he can’t hate me for a 5 mile STD error. STD being Stein Deviation
-
Not sure there is an elevation component to this. These events usually are strictly convergence/frontal or meso low type deals.
-
Stein as you are, as you were?
-
Actually, the 18 nam was kind of what I pictured yesterday, but I know it’s the nam lol. But it kind of shows you what I was sort of envisioning. I find these events very difficult to predict, you gotta look at synoptics and sort of climatology and try to figure out where the best rain would be and not knee jerk model to model or run to run.
-
It’s gonna depend on what develops over the water tonight and how that moves up to the north.
-
Yeah, I could see that too, I mentioned that earlier. Plus they already had an inch or whatever today in some spots. I was thinking more tonight until Thursday. Earlier, I was kind of envisioning a little sort of low retrograding back and throwing some moisture in, becoming more stratiform tomorrow night to Thursday, but some of the models disagree now on that, so it might be closer to Worcester.
-
Maybe it’s closer to Western CT, but you gotta remember Low will develop later on tonight and at night as that happens the LLJ increases just saying to watch that area that’s all. Maybe it’ll be more progressive.
-
I just spent as far as SNE goes. We’ll see.
-
I still like my two jacks. The only one I’m a little shaky on is in the east because it could be Worcester or could be somewhere east of that.
-
Like that scene in war of the worlds when the bodies are floating down the river.
-
Gonna be nasty Berks to the Bodies next 6 hrs.
-
Man lets see that. Lets wash out Oxford.
