CoastalWx

Euro trying for nj again. Lol

Dude trust me. Scotty knows

I’d say it’s more designed for mesoscale stuff like convection. It’s better for that, just meant not good for this stuff. Like showing 3K NAM for tropicals.

This will be nothing like October 2021. That was moving west and then west-southwest with the best gradient overhead. It had like 70kts+ at 950 overhead. Pretty good inversion above 925mb here with 61F SSTs.

Not IBM anymore and that model isn’t that good.

Clown maps

2-3”+

Euro op a good thrashing. And it jumped NE again. That model has had issues.

I think I saw someone post it on stormvista? It was just 6hr QPF that i saw.

AI is taking over. It can’t resolve mesoscale stuff yet, but the euro AI stuff is becoming what most Mets incorporate now and the google deep mind model weathernext3 is showing that it may be the deterministic model of choice.

Dude it’s bad. I’ve seen the scores. There’s no investment. AI version blows too. Anyways it makes life easier since I don’t need to incorporate it. We only foreign models now.

Gfs was catching up to euro and now it’s on the bottom of a barrel. #winning

Man with all that investment into the GFS you’d think it would be a great model…oh wait……

Looks like the AI GFS has been trained by Tblizz.

Ukie looks close to 12z. We retro.

That was more for Kevin posting that.

October 2021 doesn't grow on trees.

Deep mind has a bunch south of ern li to BID. Kind of like that area.

I feel like 2-3"+ is a lock for you and I.

AI mean makes more sense to me fwiw.

Although GFS might be too far east, I don't know if those western solutions are realistic either. GFS and Euro seem to develop a vort related to convection and the solutions result in the differences we see. GFS has the convection further east. Also, could the Euro guidance be treating this as more warm core, and therefore be more prone to sling west with the environmental flow? Whereas something that is becoming more extratropical may want to move more to the N and NE where the better combo of warm air advection and positive vorticity is maximized. I'm just thinking out loud.

Euro and Euro AI basically have the same idea...but it's nothing super impressive. However, makes me think the eastern solutions are probably going to correct west even if Euro and Ai correct east a bit.

Well I have a hard time seeing Euro AI and ensembles off by 300 miles this close in, but we shall see. I have a lot of people asking me about the weekend, and it's definitely a higher stakes deal. If the euro ai/ensembles and the euro op and ensembles have some sort of consistency at 12z...I would feel more confident in a higher impact especially near the coast. I do expect a little shuffling as usually the case this far out....but I mean no wild swings.

I’ll tell you what though, we’re easily gusting to 30 here. There’s gonna be many days of gust 30 or more helping to build the seas up so you get anything about 50 or especially 60 you’re gonna have problems if that’s timed with high tide.

Yeah, we would take icon, but that’s still kind of a JV model to me