18z HWRF is a landfall at N Myrtle at hour 60. It pushes WSW into South Carolina from there.
18z HMON is a Wilmington landfall at 63, moving on to Charlotte.
GFS stalls the center over Lumberton and provides a nice cooling drizzle for the Piedmont and Coastal Plain.
Very interested to see the rainfall totals from Wilmington to RDU with this one.
Am I seeing this right? The GFS stalls it 100 miles offshore where it bombs out before looping around and making landfall south of Hatteras at 162 as a 918 mb incendiary device. OK then.
6z GFS says that, yes, you should evacuate your parents immediately. This poster agrees, thinking "better safe than sorry."
I wish we knew where to take them, though. Maybe DC.
It really is remarkable - the German model's Wake County snow hole looks just like a territorial map of Western Europe at the height of the Battle of the Bulge.
What's not to love about 15:1? That means that the .01 QPF that Raleigh will get should blossom into .15 inches of snow! Of course you have to adjust that downwards because of mixing issues at the outset. And you might also have to adjust it downwards because of the inevitable dry slotting. And I read some graffiti at a bus stop warning that warm ground temps and sun angle could also cut down on accumulations. But those ratios are IN PLAY!