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Animal

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    Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

    Wantage NJ 3.12"   Max G 43 MPH 348P/4 in the westerly wrap around.  I wouldn't call it a true sting. Nor did we have a true PRE (no High to the north for good sfc convergence) and Isaias too fast behind the overnight-early morning qpf.  

     I think the fact that trees were leaved,  and a bit of ground softening contributed to what will be a long duration cleanup.  (see officials for duration but cant see how this will be less than a few days for some rural areas).  

     

    Frankford Township7MI away had 3.35"     

     

    Wantage-this section was without power from 430P/4-630P/5 - this evening. I here a part of Sparta may not get power til Saturday? 

    I may add a little more early Thursday and get reacquainted with the upcoming pattern then.

    756P/5

    Still around 800 meters no power in highland lakes .

    Apparently crews from Pennsylvania are on site. Recording indicated hit hard with numerous telephone poles and trees down. Rt 515 still closed. Lots of tree damage.

     

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    Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 hour ago, wdrag said:

    Good Saturday morning everyone, Little change from what was posted yesterday and possibly my last post until Sunday morning.At that time, I may start a separate SVR topic for Sunday alone. Need more time to evaluate but SVR is likely for at least a few locations in our forum Sunday.

    On SVR: big CAPE of 3000J, HI near 100 PHL feeding the storms, decent wind aloft with only worry a little drop of the KI during the afternoon. Nevertheless, this could be a 2 or 3 SVR episode day. The first, northeastward moving storms during the morning with WAA, the second in the afternoon (still northeast moving), and the third a final trough passage  line from west to east between 5 and 10PM. Eastern LI may be completely shut out of this. Primary threat region is far w CT-NYC all NJ se NYS and ne PA. Please follow local   office and SPC guidance discussions.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

    Thereafter a PRE is possible ~ a DCA-POU axis Monday night followed by squally excessive rain producing Isaias Tuesday afternoon-night. 

    More details on possible impacts below. This does not include power outages but will add concerns on that tomorrow if still possible (SVR Sunday and Isaias squalls Tuesday)

    1) Potential killer Rip Currents Monday-Wednesday for anyone who ventures into the waters s of LI.  I'd be wary of swimming, especially non expert surfers/non expert swimmers. The significant undercurrent 1 feet 15 second swell may start arriving this weekend. These long period subtle swells surprise swimmers with their energy and are sneaky dangerous. The higher surf just preceding and following the storm (within 18 hours) usually scares off most swimmers.  

    2) Rainfall as per multiple ensembles and WPC guidance. My impression is that between 1AM Sunday and 1AM Wednesday, a few locations will see ~5-7" rainfall, with isolated (1 location) 10" amount not impossible. My guess is heaviest is NJ, se NYS, w CT... presuming track continues as modeled through 06z/1. To the right of Isaias, squally and less rain, possibly less than 1" total extreme eastern LI if Isaias tracks west of Montauk. 

    3) Per  NHC 5AM Saturday 8/1 track: surge and wind field risks on the western side of ISAIAS are minimal but if the track shifts to where a portion of our area is on the eastern side of the TC, then those risks would significantly increase.  I think eastern LI to the southeast New England coast are vulnerable for at least some of these stormier impacts. Preparation should continue for that...ie gusts 50 knot.   

    4) PRE:  Composites posted yesterday.  Where this PRE occurs, IF it occurs, is unknown but my best guess now is on an axis from vicinity DCA-POU Monday night based on 00z/1 modeling. Still could end up further north, again if it occurs.  Not a CLASSIC PRE (need a little more se low level inflo than currently modeled) but hints are in the qpf modeling.  Need to look a lot closer at guidance details and surface wind shift axis on Monday.  Just too early to be sure of occurrence and if so, where. I'm thinking it will but I don't know where. These 6-12 hour events can be easy 4-8" producers in 6-12 hours. I'm looking for narrow slices of darker or even brightly colored heavier QPF in the modeling 12-24 hours in advance of Isaias in the GFS/EC/GGEM.  If we get to 36 hours and it's still possible, then we shift to the NAM and HRRR SPC HREF.  

    636A/1

    Sorta of alarming with your post regarding tomorrow.

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