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Animal

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Posts posted by Animal

    December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

    I always like to start looking at the NAM for the profiles at this juncture....growing pretty confident the 850's get to over 0c over much of the area for a time on Wednesday night before crashing SE again....with that in mind thinking a early thump of snow to IP for a while and back to snow before ending with a solid 6" to 9" of snow/concrete snow in my area of NW Chesco.....the all snow zone will be from around MDT to just N of RDG to just N of ABE and NE from there.....but allow me the option to change my forecast by game time!

    Huge 0 z nam run tonight!

    all big storms that hug the coast mix to near Pottstown on occasion 

    • Like 1

    December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

    Welcome back! I hope so too. I know not everyone loves snow, but most folks are working remote these days, its the holidays, it could bring some extra joy to folks who haven't seen snow in a long time. I hear ya on the statistics. One thing to factor in there is that kphl is almost always on the bare low end of the forecast estimates. You have the heat island effect from the city + moderating effect a touch of being next to the Delaware+ farther south + basically sea level. So for every storm in the top rankings list for the city that says, say, 8-9 at the airport, you could realistically have gotten 10-11+ further up but still in the metro area. I also think that from an impact standpoint--you're 100% on the money. Even with sleet or freezing rain, that still causes power outages and makes travel dangerous, perhaps more so. It's just, objectively, cool to have a big full snowstorm with no messy ptypes, in ones own area. I live personally close to the city/burbs line, so I'm especially cognizant of these setups and their gradients. I'm sure my childhood hometown will see 3"+ than me even though the distance is not too far. Either way, fingers crossed.

    Going to challenge your phl airport comments. It’s south of the city by a few miles. It is the location...most airports are in locations that sustain activity. Actual events are measured across the river. Can’t move it!

    I am 12-13 miles from phl sw!

    December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

    Posting on here stresses me out sometimes. Trying to "read the room" when you can't see people is nervewracking. Constantly editing and second guessing what I write to avoid saying something dumb & no one mentioning and just ignoring me. :arrowhead:

    It’s all fine.. this is my 1st storm in the philly area in years! Just moved back!

    Hoping the southern snow belt scores a victory!  Reality is this storm is a big deal for the metro area. If you look at how many storms the airport has over ten inches. Sorta concerned that as snow is now measured across the river...it may skew the actual.

    • Like 2

    December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    1 minute ago, MPotter_WX said:

    On Twitter I saw a sensitivity analysis showing the implications of latent heat release within the downstream ridge. Has a lot to do with how the NAM is so amped (overdoing convection) with the GFS is so flat (under-doing  convection). Guess we’ll see who can handle the convection better.

    MJVentrice Twitter post is a few nails in the coffin for I 95 crowd!

    December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    On one hand the 6z NAM comes in and wants to bullseye Western PA.....then the RGEM comes out moments later and I damn near pass out seeing 2-3' across SE PA. Epic model war. One of these mesos is about to fail miserably. Truth probably lies in between?

    6 nam was ugly 

    rgem is awesome 

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