Ginx snewx

3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

The weeks of onshore flow disaster idea doesn't look very likely, seasonable pattern through end of month seems more likely.

Ave temp for a day climbs on the 20th from 52 until the end of the month its 56. All models and ENS are averaging around 45 or so. Chilly 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

White out tropical storm out there. 

Landphoon?

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

White out tropical storm out there. 

Yea that was cool. Vis under 100 yds 1.75 here

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

61/58. Dewing it well.

Scoots how high are these winds 

Crushed 1.31 windy as hell 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro looks nice.

Glue

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Warmth and dews enroute soon enough.

Yea look forward to water play days when real summer arrives late June. 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah honestly I wasn't looking at the 'trend' per se - as in comparing to a span of recent cycles.  I was just looking at the 00z cross model comparison, and it immediately reminded my of what the GFS does in springs sometimes. 

I still would venture the GFS is too deep in general though.

Yea op runs certainly are a crap shoot

Let's not forget their is still serious cold that can easily be dislodged south.  Hate it as we all want warm dry COC days right up to July

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Typically the operational runs will be more amplified than their greater numbered ens means diluting the outlook - particularly further out in time. However, the operational GFS's 00z and 06z runs were excessive to me. 

It regresses the local hemisphere back an entire month or more, relative to climatology. 

I tend not to believe that.   Something about the physics of present state of the ambient field on our side of the N. Hemisphere is constructively interfering with the GFS native tendency to have cold heights/bias, out in time. It's like the nursing staff forgot it's daily Thorazine dose and it went manic with it's native tendency.  

It may not be just the operational version, either.  I compared the GEFs vs the EPS and GEPs and it's entire N. Hemisphere is eye-ball averaging some 10 dm colder overall compared to the former ens means once we get out to D9 ( 00z suite).

Short version, the GEFs forecast system is systemically cold - perhaps too much so ... - and I am suspicious of that.  I've seen the GFS do this pretty much every year since they started ensemble line pumping out new GFS model versions every year - a practice that began circa 2015.   It tends to modulate the field toward a cold bias out in time, which of course consequentially might make it bad at modulating for spring warming.  It just does this in the spring and puts out a series of charts like it gives up and runs back to Feb 20th

EPS is trending towards GEFS though. Need to get the final Strat warning over before we can lock in warmth. Maybe 2nd week of May? This weekend is no heater for sure.  GEFS had this LR. First 2 images are 60 hrs out. Then 5 day averages day 10 to 15

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Rest of month doesn’t look so good. The past three days tricked us…

21st on is ugly but next week should have some great COC days but endless DIT summer, yea not so much. Almost a repete of second half of Morch. 

4 hours ago, Dano62 said:

It does look like salt.  We're exactly 20 miles inland from the ocean and 750' above sea level, which I suppose in the big scheme of things isn't that far, or too high in elevation.  The funny thing is, these are my first two winters living inland.  The rest of my life was spent living less than 2 miles from the ocean, and I never saw this before.  Maybe I'll put some on my finger and touch it with my tongue.  Will let you know the results of my unscientific test.

Yea with all these long fetch easterly and South easterly winds salt is uplifted easily 20 miles. Boston area is famous for salt nuclei adding to snow amounts.

7 hours ago, Dano62 said:

New to the forum.  I'm 62 years old, have lived in Maine my entire life, and have never seen what I describe following.  We live off a paved private road.  The road gets plowed during/after snow storms and no salt (or equivalent) is used on the road.  We've never used any type of salt/snow melt on our paved driveway, or anywhere on our property.  Last winter, and this winter, after I have cleaned off our vehicles with a shop type floor broom, and have snowblowed our walkway/upper driveway, I put them away in our garage.  After the remaining snow melts off of them, and the water evaporates, there is a flaky white residue left where the snow melted.  It has to be something that binds to the snow flakes as they fall, but I can't for the life of me figure out what it is.  Any ideas?  Maybe I don't want to know!

It is salt,  ocean salt can create condensation nuclei which snowflakes form around. 

5 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Ginx and I are the same age.  If we are still around in 2045 I am going to send him south for the next good eclipse in the US.  The trip will be on me!!  Once he experiences totality he won't  be saying meh anymore!

Thanks Gene. Wish you liked the Raiders this much though.lol

33 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

So we are 2% per decade same as Florida did, some kindergarten kid make that map?

3 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Horrible trends in 12z guidance hopefully that changes. GFS is just atrocious through day 15. 

18Z has it snowing SVT Berks lol Sat 

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Summer is here to stay !

Last week of the month ugh. Not what you want to see in summer

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

80+ 

Riding the horse?

53 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, you’ve seemed to be finding reasons to meh this for a while, odd given how stoked you get for certain things.

I am sure you can find people who had a rough time in traffic but read the thread, everyone is saying the same thing.

I’m definitely traveling for another one.

Honestly very very happy for all. I just said my opinion about traffic and haven't seen any posts about people with young kids experience.  I would have definitely stayed overnight somewhere. If anything brings happiness to the masses I am all for it. I was kind of sad for the thick cloudy people.  Understanding and learning about science is extremely important 

7 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

You guys all made me so nervously excited a few pages ago sharing all your trucks.

I finally got mine after some hard months of searching.

 

2020 Dodge Ram Limited

Nice man enjoy. 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man lets hope we can hold some of that modeled warmth for a couple of days next week. 

Glue factory? 12z GFS says beware your backdoor,  rainy as well.

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah stay the next day is the best move but it’s funny to see the largest traffic jam in NNE history and the lack of people complaining about it.  The only ones really struck by it were the people not in it .

All true as it was incredible but I would want to hear from those people with young kids. Easy for some to say who basically walked outside though.

15 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Nice bonus day in Eastern Massachusetts. It's been beautiful all morning.

Full clouds now but nice and warm.Breeze says it's about over

38 minutes ago, mreaves said:

This was the post eclipse traffic on 89 south between exits 7 and 6 at 7:30 on the 8th.  It was crazy.  I couldn't imagine sitting in that, I would go nuts.

I have trouble with 3 cars at a stop sign here in hickville