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Ginx snewx

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    “Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

    in New England

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, vortex95 said:
    Have to get this off my chest!

    There is a lot of talk going around comparing this to the Blizzard of '78 or "will be like" the Blizzard of '78.  To deflate the senseless click-bait hype and assuage fears, it will not be anything like the Blizzard of '78 when looking at the entire picture, and the details count here as well!

    Both from a meteorological and non-meteorological standpoint, this imminent storm will not reach the legendary status of 1978.  I can  say that w/ high confidence.  Why?, b/c when you know history and 
    circumstances, not only for storms, but also how society has changed, the picture becomes clear.

    In this post, I will talk about the more obvious and straightforward, the non-meteorological parts/factors

    Preparations leading up to a storm are *everything*, or at least a lot more  that many think, as to lessening overall impact.  As I have said before, a disaster is typically only as bad as the preparations, or lack of, before it. This does not mean very high impact still does not occur, but so much "bad" is averted or mitigated.

    The forecasts for the Blizzard of '78 were not that good overall, so many from  the individual to local/state agencies were not prepared.  This almost never happens anymore for storms, certainly not for the really big and high-end ones, and the science of forecasting and modelling have improved immensely over time.  

    And the way we get information has also dramatically changed, so it is very hard *not* to know what is going on w/ the weather now.  Yes, it has gone the other way w/ *too* much hype for every single event, no matter how small or typical, and that has its own share of issues, 
    but we are hardly ever "caught by surprise," at least for big winter storms.

    So something like the Blizzard of '78 Rt 128 disaster w/ 1000s of ppl stuck and cars stranded resulting in the highway closed for a week, simply cannot happen now.  Ppl know to stay off the roads and businesses closed down for the storm, so the road crews can do their job.

    So from what I said above, physically that made the Blizzard of '78 much worse, and also psychologically was huge b/c witnessing the region paralyzed like that is an unsettling thought, to say the least!

    Another aspect, snow removal has evolved over the decades, and we are much better at it.  From better chemicals to put down on the road to the actual snow removal equipment itself to how it is all coordinated. We learned a lot from the Blizzard of '78 and many other blockbuster snowstorms since then, and that's a good thing!

    There are a lot more private contractors plowing now than 50 years ago, and things like those little Bobcat front-end loaders are ubiquitous now.  Didn't see those much in the region through the 1980s for snow removal.  Snow removal has become big business!

    And the general population knows ahead of time what is coming, so the shock and awe factor is much less.  Ppl change their plans, stock up on supplies, and think of various contingencies, like if power goes out.  This  smooths out the impact of the storm psychologically, and again, that is a good thing!
     

    You missed the most costly aspect of 78. Lunar cycle and High astro tides.

    • Like 2

    “Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

    in New England

    Posted

    57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    It stands for Moist or maybe it's mixed .. Absolute Unstable Layer.  It's basically where the WCB splits near the occlusion triple point - the eastern split rides up the warm frontal glide and discipates into the entrance jet regions.  The western split is the goodies!  It peels back west on the N side of the cyclone cylinder..., rising over the cold wedge that is on the N and NW side of the occluded formation, where it is made to be exceptionally unstable in an elevated layer.  This is where it services us with lightning and thunder snow rates, particularly if there is a 300 mb entrance jet fan on the N side of occluded boundary.   That gives it a difluence assist and the lift can be insane where MAUL is delivering warm moist air ( into the snow growth region in cold cyclone models).    I'll try and draw a picture of this... 

    https://youtu.be/v2AC41dglnM?si=9lPNUZLEjJbQBsUE

    • Weenie 1

    “Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

    in New England

    Posted

    1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

    I think those winds are overdone for Western areas.  Obviously overdone for the Valley, but I think we build that always that caveat in. Also wondering how much dry air is gonna get pushed down through the valley if we get sustained winds over 20mph? 
    Interested to see how high Kevin and some of the higher Connecticut spots gust.  You should be howling pretty good at your location.

    Forest shields me on ene winds some 

    • Like 1
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