Ginx snewx

18z Euro 2 to 4 in my hood.

6 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

where is this thermometer placed, in the Upside Down?

Don't get it

8 hours ago, dendrite said:

I don’t think anyone had DD from that airmass in SNE. Wasn’t it really windy? I remember ORH doing -10° or something in that. DD is basically the frozen form of fog…a cirrus cloud at the sfc. 

We had DD falling about 10pm that night winds calmed down.  I distinctly remember explaining the process to my Grandson 

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Heh. That reminds me of 1/14-15 2004 where we had a synoptic snowfall a few degrees below 0F. Yakutsk dropped in behind it. 

Feb 13th 2016 diamond dust then synoptic 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We can relive January 1985?

I still think our favorite weekJan 25th - 30th is going to produce finally a big dog. PNA rises slight drop in NAO and EPO stays negative SST comes into olay.  So cold precip block ..

1 minute ago, metagraphica said:

No thanks. What f*ck good is that shit if it's not gonna snow.

Its coming 

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Op/details/6z gfs aside…

That was kind of a fun run to loop through seeing those massive, sprawling 1040+ highs sandwiched around shortwaves trying to barge through the cold. @WxWatcher007 would get his -35° at SLK under one of those highs. 

Cold of yore overunning of yore.  Buckle up broncos

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I couldn’t  care less. It’s just not likely to get into the 50’s today in hills . It’s not like anyone is outside doing anything on a work day . It’s just the logistics 

Work what's that.  My walker and I are becoming fast friends. New knee yesterday  

24 minutes ago, alex said:

I’d go back to December in a heartbeat lol. This pattern sucks 

Not a pattern though just a thaw week.  It's over enjoy the snow tonight tomorrow 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

In the 2010s this would be a lock to hit

Hopefully the tide is turning.  No lack of cold for sure.

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If Sunday hits it would snow here . Those type of events never snow for ORH and not here . I’m not counting on anyone getting it 

Turn that frown upside down. 4 weeks of cold at least. Definitely opening up the Gulf which was closed in December. Perhaps even tracking 3 storms a week 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

95/100 times that would not happen. RIP James. He started an epic period. 

That epic pattern was locked in for weeks. No one saw the intensity but many of us knew it was about as good as it gets modeling wise. The Jan 15 thread shows that

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The final week of January doesn’t look dry.  

Our favorite day Jan 27th.

15 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

That is low, re doing this now. just to your east was 18 and 20" in east lyme and 21.5 in Colchester.

Thank you

Woodstock 10.5?  No

Man what a beauty Jan 12 2011

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pivotal

Thnx

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Couple nice beefy SWFEs in the extended on 18z GFS. EPS hinted at this too which is why it has been showing some snow in the 11-15 day. 
 

Would be nice to track some higher QPF systems. These less than half inch QPF events are getting brutal. 

Hate to say it because Scooter will just mock me with his passive aggressive one word posts but that's a snow blitz. We just want that Jan 20th week to snow every year. But hey Scooter Epicosity is saved for ya know big stormy periods. But maybe soon enough there summer boy.

FYI New Englands 4 seasons are the absolute best. Ski Sun Surf we have it all.

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is mostly rain for many. Torch at 925

?where do you get 925 temps on 18z Euro 

52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Most of the areas in NNE have unimpressive or low depths. Mostly single digit depths outside of elevation. 

Post week of thaw with rain. Congrats by the way on a 2 week snow blitz to end Jan

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

That ain't my definition of buried lol

Not bad after a week of thaw. Those totals will skyrocket further the next 2 weeks

32 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

So finished a stretch of overnights ydy morning, and slept in long, so just looked at everything in the last hr, including previous runs.

It's odd.  You look at the solid full latitude 500 trough and it axis, and you wonder why a weak wave scoots out quickly ahead of the upper support, taking the baroclinic zone w/ it!!!     Looking at 500 alone, it should much better at the sfc for a decent coastal.   Also, now the models don't develop any real strong sfc low?  Huh?  Again, the 500 alone does not suggest this should happen!

Big difference than 24 hr ago as well.  The 500 cuts off *well* W of  New England and is stronger than ydy, and moves over right over the region.  That should promote a sfc low *not* scooting out to sea.  However, it's not titled below.  The 700 low is co-located and goes right over the region, so we get dry slotted!  But we never got any sig precip to begin w/!  CoastalWx's worst nightmare!  LOL.

Moisture is quite limited w/ the upper low, so that will just mean half-decent snows across the mtns of NNE probably.

Ydy was better actually, since the 500 low cut S of the region.

And the two decent troughs that occur down the road, can't do much either, at least on the 06z GFS!  The 06z ECMWF looks better for something this weekend.

It's been piecemeal in regards to snowfall across the region so far this winter, no one storm can deliver widespread mdt-hvy SN.  Just sub-regions, like LI to Cape Cod and NNE get localized decent snows.  Now, we get a fragmented storm coming that that can't consolidate right!?  I can see now why CoastalWx is really getting ticked!  
 

Great synopsis. Thanks.Yes I was pumped to see the 5H CLOSED S  of us. Whatever made modeling move 300 miles ???

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't agree. Keep the ridge tilted positively like that and the surface will underperform.  This is why the dynamics and BZ are escaping east on those solutions. 

A closed ULL that deep will develop a LP in its NE quadrant.  Inflow off the ocean wlll provide seeder feeder. Closed in this situation absolutely matters 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Ginx snewxGive me a ridge like the first and 3rd image, then H5 matters....second image is when it's more futile.

What matters is when it just quickly opens up and dissipates

6 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Today is the 15 year anniversary of one of CTs biggest snowstorms on record. BDL #1 all time with 24". And overall probably the 2nd biggest (for CT in general) in the past 30 years. 

Just finished redoing all these maps for accuracy and to include Lower Northeast view with climo sites. 

One of the most perfect radar evolutions for SNE and especially CT.

This storm is actually the only storm i've done that has a 40"+ contour other than 1888. Savoy, MA 40.5", Florida 33", North Haven 30.5"

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/post/15-years-ago-january-2011-blizzard

Contours only

6 inch per hour with over 50 mph winds in that heavy yellow band that rotated off the big pnd

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS is able to swing that shortwave negative to our south which is what really helps juice that QPF up….prob a lot of members with a full blown CCB into eastern SNE …and not just swing negative, but allow it to gain some latitude while it does

 

I was told 5H didn't matter