Scraff

Fringed? The CRAS? Start up the bus?

We should stop the count.

Damn that escaping low! Nothing up top to pull it up and back? Looks good for a storm blowing up though (next Monday/Tuesday).

Not @Ji ever.

If it comes to fruition (and it won’t), let’s call it the P27 storm. Back to my triple IPA now...

How can we draw that bad boy L back towards us on Monday/Tuesday? Somebody needs to slap happy hour GFS upside the head. It’s slackin!

Powdered donut dusting maybe? Plenty of time to juice it up a bit more. Maybe we can squeeze out our first inch.

Just to be clear....are we now saying the GFS is the new king? Asking for a friend.....he’s from Europe so be easy on him.

Looks like happy hour was early today at 12z. 18z is more like last call...

Yeah, but only when the Euro and GFS are on board.

GFS about to go boom!? Yes!! Dec 14 is the one to watch.

The first MoCo-Hoco deathband of meteorological winter?

I mean it definitely seems to be heading in the right direction for sure. Plenty of time for it to continue to morph into our first legit shot.

Absolute pummeling near the Columbia Mall.

If we can get on the board in December (feeling enthused on that) with a possible SSW a few weeks from now? Sign me up ASAP!

It’s right where we want it at this time frame.

If only that wasn’t a figment of our imagination.

Let’s do this! That would actually would be a blast.

Anyone want to watch the snow pummeling right now in Deep Creek? Hit up the webcams. Just watching. Its jaw dropping. Absolutely getting crushed...

Our only chance of winter

Wow. Complete swing and a miss here. Gusty sprinkles for 30 seconds. Hope everyone else is cashing in on their severe. Lol.

Better stock up on 120 Min IPA! It will help quell the pain and agony of watching Boston getting slammed while we get our warm and dry.

BWI: 17 DCA: 12 IAD: 19 RIC: 11 SBY: 9

I’d be ok with Cosgroves thoughts.... MONTHLY FORECASTS NOVEMBER Most of the analog years present a fairly standard +PNA signature with a warm West vs. cool Central, East alignment. But a recurrent issue is that all model guidance is solidly warmer than normal over most of North America. Given that the comparison test looks almost exactly like the same September 1 - October 16 of this year, I kept the temperature forecast very close to the twelve-year mean. If shortwave injections into the Mid-Continent mean trough are as strong as what is shown now over the northern Pacific Ocean, potential for high wind events will be high from the Rocky Mountains into the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes in November. DECEMBER A more difficult forecast, since there is a prominent warm-up across the Old South and Mid-Atlantic regions which may not be viable. Note the positive height anomaly in the -NAO position (Baffin Island and Greenland) which in many cases could be construed as a block that triggers southward deviation of the jet stream. That said, the numerical model guidance is very aggressive in presenting a Southeast ridge. That feature is normally linked to very warm conditions east of the Rocky Mountains. The gradient set-up between recurrent storms over MT and WY vs. the ridging implies repeated high surface wind potential from the Great Plains and Texas into the Corn Belt. Caveat: Should the high-latitude anticyclone be the stronger of the two ridges, temperatures will be much colder across the Midwest and Northeast than what is shown here. JANUARY A much colder outlook than the previous attempt. The presence of ridging in the -EPO, -AO, and -NAO positions normally favors relocation of the cA vortex at 500MB into Ontario and James Bay. Indeed, with the core negative height anomaly aloft centered roughly over MN and W ON cold pooling will probably relocate to between the Rocky Mountains and Appalachia. The surface storm track may stay inland over the Piedmont and Atlantic Coastal Plain, so the major cities may have cases of rain and not snow. All things considered, there will likely be some very wintry moments in the Midwest and Great Lakes. The western states seem warmer and drier than normal outside of a few frontal passages along the Pacific Coast. Caveat: It would not take much, with the widespread ridging at higher latitudes, to turn the Eastern Seaboard into a winter wonderland as we start 2021. FEBRUARY Similar in many ways to the January upper air pattern, but with more extensive cyclonic curvature and cold air through the eastern two-thirds of the nation. If there is going to be a major snowstorm along the East Coast, it probably will be in February. Note the stability of the blocking ridge complex above the Arctic Circle. Caveats: If ridging builds into British Columbia, we could see cases of severe cold and more frequent frozen precipitation from the Great Plains to the East Coast. Conversely, if the blocking signature is weaker, there may be some merit in the very warm outlooks posted by the CFS and ECMWF series. MARCH Yet another example of a back-ended winter forecast. Note that there is very little change in high-latitude ridge position and strength. In theory, if this forecast verifies, abundant snow in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and New England could help to maintain substantial cold to the right of the Continental Divide. Caveats: The very warm numerical models continue to concern me, and are a reason that I moderated temperatures somewhat from the Mid-Atlantic to the Eastern Seaboard. Curiously, all analog and modeled guidance suggests a turn to much warmer weather nationally as we enter April. But March should be cold. SUMMARY Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere does not look like anything special now. But given time, and ridging spaced about the North Pole and Arctic Circle, the strong polar westerlies acting in concert with a La Nina signal should produce vigorous storms in the middle latitudes. The dryness in the middle of the continent could limit snow in the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains. But if the analog predictions verify for the winter months, there will be a great deal of snow in the Great Lakes and Appalachia. The best odds on snow impacts along the Interstate 95 corridor appear to be for February and March. The two most active storm track threats: Alberta Clippers and "Miller B" Hatteras Lows (one of which could be a memorable winter storm). A colder winter, overall, than the five most recent DJFM periods.

Guess WISP will be my spot this winter for golfing.