Syrmax

That jibes with my memory of living down in the I-95 corridor from the 70s to 90s. Generally awful for snow. In fact, the 90s were probably saved by the extraordinary winter of 95/96.

Yes.

Since when does GFS outperform the Euro? Since 2020! Unscientific here but model max pain points to a shift NW with track and snowfall. There's a lot more of them (coasties) then us (hicks).

How much for Philly?

Does look good at H700...especially at 6-7 days out, the qpf panels tend to be among the least reliable, though we all like to fixate on them.

I like #35!

00Z EC is good news for most of us. I'd much rather have that model in our camp then the GFS a week out...we'll see if the usual model tendencies play out this time. The 00Z GFS Frog Marches us into XMas with almost nothing but rain and misses.

I'll tell you what that is...its the 00Z GFS cancelling December. What a disaster if that plays out.

Its locked in now. The pain won't stop until morale improves

What are these LES events that you speak of? Were they before the Orcs took control of the weather?

I had a 9:1 ratio this a.m. its def a wetter snowfall.

Well, 1.5" as of 8 am here in Yellow Zone NY. I had 0 expectations so a bit of a surprise.

It's early. We (KSYR) are far behind Climo at this point but the averaged values are still low. November averages 6-9" of snowfall in November (I forget if it's 6 or 9"). As its only 12/7, and sitting here with 3.5" total, it's ~25% of average to date, but of course we should only have received 1/10th of our seasonal snowfall thusfar. So 25% of 10% is still a small number. If we are still at these values by end of December, I think we'll have to ratchet up the Panic Meter level.

Not so sure...being an "old timer"...i distinctly remember the GFS always overdoing the cold going back to the 1990s and early 00's. It's tendency to be too far S&E with east coast systems (esp in the medium range) and to lose storms, only to have them magically reappear as the event draws closer, seems to be relatively unchanged. At least that's my unwashed perception...

Agreed. The weather the past couple of months reminds me of what is typical in most of Germany and the Low Countries. A lot of 40’s for high temps, generally dreary with rain and occasional bits of snowfall with cold snaps. Same with England.

Character building... At least we appear to be on track for another mild-ish Holiday season...

I missed this since I have been detuning from the noise. Congrats on the decision, it's certainly understandable. You will be missed here for sure. Best of luck to you and the Frau.

You know, I was going to expand and clarify but why bother. you are quite unlikable. Seek help.

Fair enough. I havent seen a lot on antibody testing on the Covid Tracking Project but I could've missed something. There's way too much information flow out there the last 3 months, overall.

Problem is we don't kknow if they're actually shitty tests or just Dems seizing on concerns about the rapidity by which FDA approved them. It will be figured out if they are shitty tests in due course but sitting around navel gazing and jerking off in peer reviews doesn't seem like the best approach while Rome burns.

This is part of why we are in trouble as a nation. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/495772-alarm-bells-ring-over-controversial-covid-testing So this is now evolving as the latest anti-Trump political ploy to oppose the release of covid-19 antibody testing. First, in Jan the MSM and Dems line was, "this is all overblown". Then, when Trump shifted gears to denial and trivialize space, they swapped 180 to oppose that. This fit hand in glove with "not enough testing," ... bad Trump. And correct. Now we're getting more testing and its but but but, it's not good testing. GMAFB. When the Democrats (correctly) pointed out that the Admin was fumbling the testing rollout during Jan-Mar timeframe, and fingered the FDA as being an obstacle in the process, it made the Trump admin look bad. Ok, fair enough. Now, when they begin rolling out a lot of antibody tests, and have improved covid-19 test availability (somewhat), its: oh no no no, those tests didnt get rigorous enough scrutiny by FDA. And lest one feebly state "oh so you're ok with bad tests," read this: "But in the rush to get tests to the public quickly, there are worries that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has allowed companies to market tests with little to no oversight, raising the potential for a surge in inaccurate results." There are worries. Really? By whom? C'mon, this is horsesh!t and clearly an attempt to keep the nation paralyzed for as long as possible to drive dissatisfaction and maximize economic destruction...which plays against Trump ostensibly in the election. These people better be very careful as people's patience with both sides is drawing thin. Unhinge enough people and frankly it'll be great entertainment watching these people all get what they've probably got coming.

Agree on that. In the end, I suspect that "excess mortality" might be a reasonable way to figure out a real number of covid-19 deaths. Not exact as seasonal flu lethality varies but we know statistically how many people die over the course of a year so any deltas ought to stand out.

We still have limited testing, whether it's due to a continuing lack of test kits or other procedural reasons, not sure. I'm not sure if there's an under or over count going on. There's been no shortage of claims both ways. Until proven otherwise, likely after the fact, I look at this issue as similar to bad refereeing...it washes out in the end...usually.

I dont know how granular they will, or can, get. Many counties have very low infection totals and it seems way overboard to be walking around in masks and all the other limitations on businesses. Problem is, if it gets relaxed in low infection upstate counties, its impossible to limit travel out of higher infection counties. So you rancid, infected mongrels in Rochester and Buffalo would have to stay home for it to fully work!

I've stumbled across interesting articles on health, weight control, etc with a focus on having the "right" gastrointestinal microbes and such. Not sure how real any of it is and a lot of nutritional stuff seems to border on junk science but some of it makes sense. If nothing else, if the Placebo effect works, roll with it.