Syrmax

Kind of a hidden salt remark. The salting is out of hand i agree. I prefer sand for driving conditions sometimes. Many times driving thru heavy LES going up to work in Oswego, the roads remained pretty passable as wind and cars kept two tire lanes mostly clear. When they salt here it can turn the snow on the road into a more dangerous glop, esp when temps are <20F.

It's still out at D4/5, so path of least regret, climo, makes sense.

I think most are probably expecting an adjustment east to the track? Frankly, so are a lot of us based on #modelology

Yeah when I drive into Phoenix/Pennelville they throw a lot of sand mixed with salt. I can tell when ppl have driven there by the sand-snow concrete blocks that fall off the underside of the car into my driveway.

WPC clearly skeptical of the WNY/WPA jackpot scenario.

Imagine still throwing sand on the roads.

Funny u mention that. My ex gifted me her 1 year old Ariens snowblower this fall. (We're still friendly). Brought home, started fine. Went to use it the other day...no go...carb flooding out it appears. Had to break out my old smaller snowblower...which started first pull...first time using it this season.

I would hate for that to happen and have to upgrade my 1st Q Grade for this Winter from D- to something like a C or B.

Well, a lot of AMWX gets plowable snow out of this solution. Other than most of i-95. It would be a throwback storm to the 1990s.

2, 3 days ago this was threatening a run on Bermuda. I'm holding my powder till Friday 12Z runs to get too excited.

Last weekend at Daisy Dukes...

Long way to go. We haven't even entered our wailing and gnashing of teeth phase when modeling threatens to pull the football away.

That lake enhancement SE of L.O. ...it's the secret sauce for Sizzlecuse.

I'm with you on 'Danny Dimes' but to be fair the NYG offense (and esp OL and coaches decision making) have been brutally bad in his era. Barkley is injured a lot (another 1st rounder largely wasted) and receivers spotty at best. Hard to fully assess but I do think we've seen enough to know he isn't the long term QB solution.

12Z runs will be interesting. It's vaguely disturbing that it's only Wednesday and the storm is sunday/Monday. I'm thinking tonight's 00Z runs start to introduce some 'turbulence' for upstate. Seems like the only time models hold serve for days is when they show GL Cutters... #modelology

That's a lot of ens hits for CNY/WNY, something like 15/20. My gut tells me this ends up further east but maybe i've been groomed by the last decade + of anomalous results with SNE jacking. Two more days of modelology to go through. Sigh.

Just looked at that...Surface and h850 look pretty reasonable, looks like the H500 feature didn't close off until the last panel (00Z 02/17/58) and sort of a merge/phase (?) with the H500 low over Hudson Bay. Right now...GooFuS and others are closing H500 contours earlier along the path. Something to keep an eye on...

i haven't looked, are the NYC/NE/MidAtl Forums imploding?

Yeah, its Wed 00Z. I won't take this thing too seriously until Friday 00Z/12Z. I'm expecting the usual model waffling to show its face again. Though - there is reasonable consistency the last couple/few cycles among the major model suites.

This is why i'm leery of reading too much into apparent discrepancies between op models and ensembles. How many times have we seen the ensembles move en masse with op models? Answer: A lot. This far out it makes sense to look at ensembles for threats but the fact that any op run is on "the fringe" of an ensemble suite doesn't give me all that much confidence that the ensemble is informative with regards to outcome. Watch - if/when NWP shifts further east with op runs - the ensemble will follow. Would it have told me anything? No.

CNY slots in the 00Z GooFuS scenario. We toss.

yeah they do. Not often but they do. I point it out every few years when it happens.

I'd love to see a vertically stacked low in the NY bight...would be mucho goodness for our entire forum...

FYI, that yellow section of the temp (red) line is the Snow Growth Zone, or DGZ - Dendrite Growth Zone. You want to see the temp and dewpoint lines about merged as you go up in altitude (near saturation) AND have the upward vertical velocity (UVV), air motion, which is shown by the horizontal bars on the LH vertical Axis, aligned with the DGZ. This sounding is sh*t for any precip as the column is dry in an arctic airmass and what little UVV there is, isn't well aligned with the DGZ. So...upshot...effin cold and low humidity. Edit: this is more for @sferic

It does make me want to throw up my mouf a little bit.