burrel2

Actually I lied, it was feb 17, 2015... lol. Time flies I guess. 

The last Over performing cad for my backyard was 2018 when all the hi res models had me dropping to A min of 32/33 the night before the the event and had no chance of sleet in the soundings. I wound up hitting 28.3 for a low the next day and got 90% sleet with a little freezing rain at the end and temps never made it above 31 during precipitation. 1 inch of liquid total. That one was a very dry air mass. 

This wasn’t a storm that typically bust in our favor for cad. Those are storms with an eroding wedge(models erode too fast) or an anonymously dry air mass.

waiting on cad to kick in is usually delayed compared to what models show, and often doesn’t work out. Especially without cold dry air already in place across the region.  

Here’s the icon from yesterday morning. Shows the dry slot well.

16 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Absolutely horrible. It’s insane how they can be so far off .... we may as well just go back to checking barometric pressure and guessing off a telegram sent from DC 

All the global models depicted this dry slot fairly well...

The freezing rain in Louisiana makes our wedge look like child’s play. They’re getting over an inch of liquid with temps in the low to mid 20s

Texarkana got 8-10 inches with the last storm and are going to get another 6-8 inches tonight... all with temps in the teens and 20s. Why????

It does look like there will be two bands of higher totals and a minima area in between. Most models have the first band west of the mountains and the 2nd band east of the foothills. 
 

not sure how much that will matter though Bc it probably just means most of the 1/2 inch of liquid freezes instead of getting 2 inches of liquid where lots of it runs off in the downpours.

Nam is warming Athens, Georgia  from 31/19 Wednesday morning to 49/33 under north East winds. I find it odd that the wetbulb Would rise that much with a northeasterly feed. I could see things verifying dryer/colder Wednesday for wedge areas. Something to watch 

Actually for northern NC it’s close to a snow sounding through 7am. Hope it’s right with the Lack of a warm nose push for you guys. 

Hrr soundings support freezing rain, not sleet. The clown map is bogus. 

13 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Can you provide some guidance on how you read that sounding and how you know it is sleet?  The warm nose looks awfully warm and thick.

 

Thanks in advance.

TW

Yea that’s freezing rain fo sho. 

The retrograding block paid out in the end, just so happened to be every southern state but ga, fl, sc, nc. That nws advisory map makes me want to cry. 

I’m about ready to throw in the towel. Looks like no chances through at least feb 25th.  

Models in agreement that Dallas, Tx will get heavy snow Monday morning with a surface temp around 10 degrees. Face palm

The southern wave really trended good for us to get a winter storm but that sorry p.o.s Canadian vortex that never made it in to the US is now progged to leave a little lobe behind which wrecks high pressure development out ahead of the southern wave. We can’t catch a break. 
 

I won’t complain too much though. Got one decent snow this winter at least. 
 

still a little salty that places south of Dallas, Texas are getting like 4 different winter storms over the next ten days and they got one earlier this winter too.

It’s is pretty locked in that eastern Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas are going to get an major winter storm. Must be nice.

Improved from  00z but still on amped/warm side of 12z guidance. Clear as mud. 

if I had to guess right now I’d bet on an average outcome where we get a miller b and ice for the traditional cad regions. Have the edge of ice from say Athens,ga  to greenwood, sc , to Charlotte, and just west of Raleigh. Who knows though. 

Feel like this is a huge euro run coming up. If it trends towards the ukmet/icon then I’ll be feeling pretty confident in a major winter storm. If it spits out a run similar to 00z or the 12zgfs then it’s still anyone’s guess with a slight lean towards rainstorm for Tuesday, imo. 

The ukmet is a major hit. 

0 degrees in lake Charles??? Lmao 

12z ukmet matches up with the icon at 5h.  Gfs para is a little faster with the southern wave but still a major winter storm. 12z gfs is more amped than other models with the southern wave and too warm for most, it appears to be on an island with that with the 12z runs. 

I personally don’t mind negative/pessimistic people being on the board. Probably a good thing to be honest. But if you’re gonna be negative have a little thicker skin than that.  My comment was in jest. 

6z icon would have been a major hit. At this point what’s most critical is the remnants of the Canadian vortex ejecting East Quickly for optimal high pressure placement. We can score a major winter storm even if the surface lows runs west of the apps in that scenario, with the classic high placement you’ll still have a locked in wedge and lower pressures along the Atlantic coast 

Euro is still an absolute classic cold air damming scenario. The combination of squashing/dissolving the Canadian vortex quickly as it ejects East and over amplifying the southern stream wave leads to a warmer outcome in the mid levels... but would be a catastrophic ice storm as depicted for cad regions of nc/sc. 

the models will waffle on the strength of those two features but they all are in agreement on the perfect placement of the damming high and timing of the southern wave. If they’re correct in that timing we will get a major ice storm.