burrel2

i'm gonna need a cigarette after the 18z gfs run. whew!

3 minutes ago, rduwx said:

12z euro was more strung out and tilt wasn't as close to neutral.  Just one run and lots of time for this to change but these are things we need to see improve moving forward  for more qpf imo.

Sorta like that look 6 days out. It seems like these systems always tighten up and amplify a little better once we get inside 72hrs. 

The cmc control run Clown map must be a beaut. 

Well this escalated quickly. I was a little optimistic this morning with the euro showing it on consecutive runs. Now we have gfs, ukmet, and icon showing a perfect setup for the upstate. Very excite!

Climo hasn't change in my back yard for snow. I've gotten between 2-4 inches nearly every year since 1990 with the exception of 2010-2011 when I had 7.5 inches total(spread across two events).  There were 4 or maybe 5 winters where I've gotten nothing but trace accumulations or less across the last 30 years and they've been evenly spread out within that time frame.

Also, take a look at the Arkansas/Texas region last year. They got a once in a 100 year type snow/cold event last winter. Pretty much the entire state of Arkansas got 12-20 inches of snow that stayed on the ground for weeks. 

For entertainment only, but the 384hr gfs panel is showing the coldest outbreak in modern history for us. Fun to look at anyway. 

Looks like nice potential late next week. Maybe an overrunning event? 

Not even one semi-credible fantasy threat inside 7 days for the month of December, including mountain regions. Woof. 

NAO looking great in the long range. Nice to have a least one thing trending  in our favor for a change. 

She’s a beaut Clark!

December looks like a complete dumpster fire. 

Unfortunately,  there’s also lots of sporadic single wide trailers in those paths, especially around Calhoun falls. Hopefully everyone made out ok.

Looks like they’re finally loosening up. They both traveled a solid 20-30 miles before weakening though. Curious to see the damage reports. There’s not much for structures in their paths. Mainly just timberland and national forest. 

Pretty serious debris ball in abbeville county. These two couplets haven’t been cycling at all the last hour. They look great on every scan.

Significant damage reports coming out of Elbert county 

That couplet moved right over my 300 acre timber tract and rental house in Elberton... doh!

https://fb.watch/4PZrBIwU51/Incredible video of the Seneca tornado. Can someone tell me how this tornado was only rated max of 90 mph winds when it had enough speed to lift a car off the ground? 

My dad lives on Delphi drive. Path missed his house by 100yds. 

Confirmed ef1 tornado in Seneca yesterday. No warning ever issued for oconee county

Tornado touched down in Seneca, sc today. Flipped a car upside down and moved several others in a parking lot near bounty land.

no warning from the nws for this cell as it dropped a tornado. 

3 miles north of clemson,sc.

2 inches of Snow. no freezing rain or sleet. 

That ensemble mean looks nice. Next weekend’s setup has monster potential if the northern stream can phase in with the southern wave. 

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

How about this trend of warmth in SE as a global warming hotspot? I always thought in the early 2000s, it would be +PNA warming, with above average everywhere and average in the SE... It seems now even in favorable patterns for SE cold, it just doesn't happen. Alberta clippers stopped sometime in the late 1990s. What's the correlation with melting arctic sea ice and Southeast, US temps? Get ready for a dead period in the 11-15 day. 

February is running -4 degrees from average at GSP. We haven’t torched. 

I think the eastern escarpment in northern NC could get some snow on Friday. Especially with some elevation 

Puke