jaxjagman

CFS shows Nina hanging,no sign yet of Nino.We'll see SOI now the last couple of weeks has been the best Nina state since the on set 2018 11 1013.53 1007.10 8.58 2018 12 1013.34 1006.85 8.86 2018 13 1013.79 1008.15 4.86 2018 14 1013.64 1007.75 6.04 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68

Daily SOI 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83

Our severe season in the Valley early season seems to slipping away each day,you thinking the same ?March is looking like a dud right now to me anyways.Don't mean no severe.but..

The SOI is holding firm right now.It's kinda similar of what we seen late into Nov where the MJO went through west of the IDL but the MJO is much stronger by the looks right now this go around 2018 2017 318 1012.76 1007.95 12.28 2017 319 1013.52 1008.80 11.70 2017 320 1013.25 1007.90 15.71 2017 321 1012.80 1007.95 12.53 2017 322 1012.94 1007.90 13.74 2017 323 1012.50 1007.60 12.85 2017 324 1012.41 1007.95 10.05 2017 325 1012.00 1007.70 9.03 2017 326 1011.02 1006.00 13.61 2017 327 1010.68 1005.50 14.63 2019 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 The strong wind burst around the IDL is fixing to leave and bring a Kelvin Wave east of the IDL in time by the looks

Region 4 has taking a dip recently,more the result of the MJO coming through

Maybe a strong Nino next year, but i don't see it right now this year.You want to see those ocean anomalies pillow up west of the IDL then let go like gang busters .There is no real signs of that now,some warming is showing on the Pentad but it's still not earth shattering ,but who knows you might be right,

Jamstec ensemble mean shows Nina not lasting much longer but still Nina like conditions until late spring and going neutral through 2020,though some disagreement with it's members.(MAM) looks BN (cooler) in the Valley

Think it's to early to tell.That would be something else if Nina came back again.There never have been trips,just a couple back to back Ninas,since 1950 anyways http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

NMME/IMME is showing Nina lasting into late spring/early summer Nina has probably just about peaked or has by the looks with warmer waters trying to build up in the depths on the ETA.The last several days there has been some warming in region 1+2.CPC/IRI shows a 50% chance of the ENSO being neutral next fall and possibly into next winter. The BOM thinks Nina will hang on a bit later, Weak La Niña continues over the Pacific A weak La Niña pattern continues in the tropical Pacific. This event is likely to be at or near its peak, with most models suggesting this La Niña will end during the southern autumn. Sea surface temperatures currently show a clear La Niña pattern, with coolest waters concentrated in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Likewise, some atmospheric indicators such as trade winds and cloudiness also show a clear La Niña signal. However, a continuing build-up of warmer water beneath the surface of the western Pacific is a likely precursor to the end of this event. In order for 2017–18 to be classed as a La Niña year, thresholds need to be exceeded for at least three months. Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this event is likely to last through the southern summer, and decay in the early southern autumn of 2018, so these thresholds are likely to be met. La Niña typically brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia during summer, particularly in northern New South Wales and Queensland. However, a weak La Niña will have less influence on Australian rainfall than a strong event. La Niña events can also increase the likelihood of prolonged warm spells for southeast Australia. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. IOD events are unable to form between December and April.

I like severe season also.The only set back to me looks like if there is a SSW event that would throw a wrench in it,but i dont see it right now.Some signs of downwelling into Feb,not sure it will work out,even if if did it could even go on the wrong side and benefit severe season.The Equatorial temp anomaly is already showing some warm areas trying to upwell even east of the IDL,So we basically have seen Nina peak,if it holds on a few more weeks.Severe season looks good to me,especially early season.We should have one more cold snap first of Feb.,then games on ,what it looks to me right now

Meant to post back sooner.When i get back from Chicago i will do this.But you need to help out this time as well with other posters here,this is really time consuming,and i know others can chime in which would benefit the thread as well.We have some good posters here now and it's growing.So everyone should chime in from time to time with thoughts

These are just predictions based on models into late winter into spring.It's not rare various sites fine tune their EMS in the winter time here.There is no threat of severe weather upcoming with the cold established at this time

Looks like an early severe threat into the Valley and possibly later on into the spring time.Enso looks like a transition from a more Nina pattern into a more Nino pattern in the summer,could be a crap year into the plains the way it looks right now.Either way winter time into spring time is showing some potential as it looks right now

Nice pics !!That was just so cool to witness.Wish we could do it again tomorrow

CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z AUG18 TOTAL BNDRY LOW MID HIGH CONV 6 HR SFC CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD QPF RHU (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (PCT) FRI 12Z 18-AUG 75 53 39 31 0.00 98 FRI 18Z 18-AUG 83 30 0 75 0.01 54 SAT 00Z 19-AUG 0 0 0 0 0.00 71 SAT 06Z 19-AUG 13 0 0 13 0.00 76 SAT 12Z 19-AUG 11 0 10 2 0.00 87 SAT 18Z 19-AUG 28 21 18 0 0.00 53 SUN 00Z 20-AUG 8 0 3 6 0.02 84 SUN 06Z 20-AUG 0 0 0 0 0.00 95 SUN 12Z 20-AUG 76 76 0 0 0.00 93 SUN 18Z 20-AUG 35 13 2 24 0.00 42 MON 00Z 21-AUG 11 0 4 8 0.00 72 MON 06Z 21-AUG 35 0 0 35 0.00 83 MON 12Z 21-AUG 2 1 1 1 0.00 85 MON 18Z 21-AUG 5 0 5 0 0.00 39 TUE 00Z 22-AUG 16 0 15 1 0.00 68 TUE 06Z 22-AUG 73 0 3 72 0.00 80 TUE 12Z 22-AUG 5 1 2 3 0.00 85 TUE 18Z 22-AUG 25 18 17 0 0.00 50 WED 00Z 23-AUG 75 0 25 69 0.03 72 WED 06Z 23-AUG 11 0 4 7 0.00 88 WED 12Z 23-AUG 47 29 19 25 0.01 93 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CSV LAT= 35.95 LON= -85.08 ELE= 1880 12Z AUG18 TOTAL BNDRY LOW MID HIGH CONV 6 HR SFC CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD QPF RHU (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (PCT) FRI 12Z 18-AUG 62 53 36 9 0.00 98 FRI 18Z 18-AUG 33 30 1 4 0.02 64 SAT 00Z 19-AUG 1 1 1 0 0.00 78 SAT 06Z 19-AUG 63 1 0 62 0.00 85 SAT 12Z 19-AUG 10 0 10 0 0.00 85 SAT 18Z 19-AUG 10 0 8 1 0.00 49 SUN 00Z 20-AUG 20 7 15 3 0.00 81 SUN 06Z 20-AUG 13 2 0 11 0.00 90 SUN 12Z 20-AUG 1 1 0 0 0.00 89 SUN 18Z 20-AUG 17 15 12 0 0.00 43 MON 00Z 21-AUG 2 2 1 0 0.00 83 MON 06Z 21-AUG 1 0 1 0 0.00 81 MON 12Z 21-AUG 6 0 0 6 0.00 76 MON 18Z 21-AUG 18 0 0 18 0.00 36 TUE 00Z 22-AUG 4 1 2 1 0.00 79 TUE 06Z 22-AUG 20 1 3 17 0.00 67 TUE 12Z 22-AUG 5 0 1 4 0.00 85 TUE 18Z 22-AUG 19 12 15 0 0.00 52 WED 00Z 23-AUG 32 4 27 7 0.01 77 WED 06Z 23-AUG 22 0 10 14 0.00 93 WED 12Z 23-AUG 74 72 4 4 0.00 95 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z AUG18 TOTAL BNDRY LOW MID HIGH CONV 6 HR SFC CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD QPF RHU (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (PCT) FRI 12Z 18-AUG 97 73 41 92 0.00 92 FRI 18Z 18-AUG 36 17 30 1 0.05 70 SAT 00Z 19-AUG 11 11 3 0 0.02 80 SAT 06Z 19-AUG 2 2 0 0 0.00 90 SAT 12Z 19-AUG 14 13 0 2 0.00 89 SAT 18Z 19-AUG 16 0 2 14 0.00 50 SUN 00Z 20-AUG 8 0 5 3 0.00 84 SUN 06Z 20-AUG 34 1 1 33 0.00 92 SUN 12Z 20-AUG 31 31 0 0 0.00 93 SUN 18Z 20-AUG 18 4 16 0 0.00 46 MON 00Z 21-AUG 6 0 3 3 0.00 79 MON 06Z 21-AUG 0 0 0 0 0.00 85 MON 12Z 21-AUG 10 3 0 7 0.00 84 MON 18Z 21-AUG 28 1 20 9 0.00 47 TUE 00Z 22-AUG 11 0 8 4 0.00 79 TUE 06Z 22-AUG 6 3 4 1 0.00 87 TUE 12Z 22-AUG 8 0 1 7 0.00 84 TUE 18Z 22-AUG 18 0 8 11 0.00 51 WED 00Z 23-AUG 16 5 15 0 0.00 75 WED 06Z 23-AUG 48 1 13 41 0.00 86 WED 12Z 23-AUG 27 14 4 14 0.01 92 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 12Z AUG18 TOTAL BNDRY LOW MID HIGH CONV 6 HR SFC CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD QPF RHU (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (PCT) FRI 12Z 18-AUG 89 25 24 84 0.00 96 FRI 18Z 18-AUG 55 26 15 36 0.01 58 SAT 00Z 19-AUG 0 0 0 0 0.00 68 SAT 06Z 19-AUG 15 0 0 14 0.00 84 SAT 12Z 19-AUG 25 25 0 0 0.00 92 SAT 18Z 19-AUG 15 1 2 12 0.00 42 SUN 00Z 20-AUG 31 0 22 11 0.00 62 SUN 06Z 20-AUG 15 1 4 11 0.00 86 SUN 12Z 20-AUG 16 15 1 0 0.00 91 SUN 18Z 20-AUG 16 12 10 0 0.00 41 MON 00Z 21-AUG 2 0 0 2 0.00 60 MON 06Z 21-AUG 0 0 0 0 0.00 78 MON 12Z 21-AUG 7 0 0 7 0.00 83 MON 18Z 21-AUG 32 0 32 0 0.00 37 TUE 00Z 22-AUG 23 1 22 0 0.00 63 TUE 06Z 22-AUG 3 0 3 0 0.00 78 TUE 12Z 22-AUG 1 0 0 0 0.00 86 TUE 18Z 22-AUG 23 1 23 0 0.00 44 WED 00Z 23-AUG 70 4 19 65 0.01 72 WED 06Z 23-AUG 48 0 3 47 0.00 90 WED 12Z 23-AUG 15 7 3 6 0.00 92

Williamson County is still having school Monday.Now by all reports i've read, 1M-1.5M is being predicted to flock into Nashville.I think i'm just going to give my kids a eclipse day "no school".I can't imagine the traffic. Just checked my deck out and the sun is right on top of us basically.Going to have the "Happy Water"chilled .Gonna just stay put.

Cold front dropping down think our area in Tn might be ok,it's not written in stone THOUGH.I'd be more concerned for our folks NE GA and SC.Below map is total cloud cover,Euro

Euro today shows a system getting into the Yellow Sea,Korea, possibly the Sea of Japan.There's going to be a ridge in the SW.Pulling for Jeffs forecast ,by the looks on how fast the pattern moves could very well be the 22nd

Hope you're right.Still looks to me though we could be in a more S/SW flow,maybe more diurnal?.Not sure of the tropics but by the looks the CCKW in the GOM and or Caribbean seems possible before hand

GEFS is now is now in the range today,long range though looking at Asia.Maybe a clean FRONTPA right now as you mentioned above,but right now looks to be extended into the Korea Bay which would be N of the Valley which would possibly put us in a more S/SW flow.Might not be bad though with more diurnal driven late afternoons stuff.To early to tell but if that CCKW kicks off something and that makes it into the GOM,we'll be inundated with clouds possibly if it does

Looks like a strong CCKW upcoming,gonna dampen our spirits?

Starting to get into the ensembles range but much to me depends on what the tropics do in this time frame and where the MJO is.Right now to me looks like the heights are rising into Mongolia and China long range,this would be good news to me with a trough into the east mid month followed by some sort of ridge possibly,but its kinda moot right now,its the GEFS