I mean this is life at d7-10. Most of these models have relatively similar physics and schemes. A slight change in time with s/w spacing/strength and your consistent bomb becomes a weaker event or vice versa. We had storms seemingly coming out of nowhere Feb 15. But people have to expect guidance to change as we get closer no matter how consistent modeling is in the LR. So it really comes down to expectations. There’s multiple threats on the table so making a specific storm thread a little early isn’t a bad thing…it cuts down on the confusion in the monthly disco thread.
I don't think it will matter much with melting. It's not like the soil is 45F vs 30F. When it starts melting it's ice water anyway and the surface hangs around in the low/mid 30s depending on solar. My 4" and 8" soil hasn't been below 33F all season and it still takes forever to melt.
Insolation and temps/dews determine most of the melting. 45F and March sun don't care how deeply cold your ground is.
1.8”/0.31” in the latest sample. Didn’t see much sleet in it either so it was really a rimed, dense snow. 3.9”/0.47” as of 630am, but over 4” now.
20.2° -SN and dropping steadily