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dendrite

Administrator / Meteorologist
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Posts posted by dendrite

  1. 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

    True story though, when I measured the snow and told my wife we got 10" she asked "what happened to 1-3?" :lol:

    She said that was our forecast, even though our house was in a winter storm warning. My guess is she was reading the P&C that said accumulations 1-3 inches and missed the Saturday night 4-7 inches.

    Damn. Making your wife get the forecast from the webpage. Couples therapy? 

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    • Haha 3
  2. 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

    its weird how the HRRR  precip maps showed sleet yesterday but soundings looked like all snow.. maybe the soundings were off but showing correctly on precip maps?

    Again in comes down to nucleation in the cloud layer. The profile can be completely below freezing, yet you can still get ZR or IP. Once that dryslot kicks in aloft, if the top of the cloud layer isn’t cold enough for ice nucleation you just end up with water droplets. 

    • Thanks 3
  3. 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

    This one had a lot of flags present, plus we have a long-standing history of knowing how these events roll. Unless you’re into the heaviest banding for a longer duration, go low. 
     

    Once again Bufkit, NAM, GFS, and HRRR (as we got into its range) did a phenomenal job illustrating how this would pan out. Now, bufkit isn’t the holy gospel, if the model doesn’t have banding go over that location say, well then it will be way off, however, that’s something you factor in when making a forecast. Anyways, just like last week, most locations on bufkit literally had 2-3 hours of heavy snow with rates ~1”+ per hour, outside that window rates were barely even 0.50” per hour and hardly even above 0.2”.

    QPF maps have to be used with extreme caution in these fast moving events too. You really have to nail down, of that QPF how much is being maximized efficiently?

    GFS QPF was bong worthy down there. This was your 00z 12hr QPF with the event already underway and then actual totals. 
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    • Like 3
  4. 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

    I literally got 7.5 inches in every spot. I put the ruler in. So that’s a pretty confident measurement. Still very light snow falling but  probably not accumulating much.

    Same here, but there’s so much fluff it’s settling more than it accumulates. 

  5. 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

    I didn’t realize how hard it was snowing until a little bit of light came up and I went outside. 7 inches and snowing hard with the snow growth of our dreams.

    Yeah this is great. Pack must be around 20” now. The table is looking meaty. Still snowing decently although not as insane as earlier. 
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    • Like 7
  6. As for SNE, I wasn’t a fan of the aggressiveness of that dryslot early last night in E PA/NY. It thumped good initially, but it went to hell quickly once the DGZ dried out and the DGZ was wayyy up there around H5-6. You could almost see the line setting up along the S NY/N PA border where in NY you were getting the fronto banding and in PA it was more ragged and showery…and that all translated east quickly.

    GFS has lately been overly juicy too. Looks like it was 1.5-2x too high on QPF in some parts of CT. 

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