SACRUS

67/51 off a high of 93 yesterday. Clouds pushing into the area from NYS. Cooler 60 hours before warmer/humid and some unsettelled weather moves in Tue (6/21) through next Fri (6/24) as ridge refires into the Plains and we are fringed. Euro cut off a ULL in the weakness along the east coast and its onshore city for 72 hours next week while the low meanders near the coastal Carolinas and we have onshore/clouds and storms. That bucked the prior trend of pushing the heat in for 24/36 hours on previous 6/17 12z guidance. We'll see where we go today but the seasonal tendency would argue another battle with onshore along the NE and EC. Beyond there next weekend 6/25 look to see flow go flatter and some of the heat come through. Plains ridge is a bit flatter as we open July on the longer range guidance so normal/bias warm would be the call as it stands now for the open of July.

We'll see but today's guidance looks similar for next wed (6/22) and Thu (6/23) as today with a blast of heat.

6/17 PHL: 96 ACY: 96 EWR: 95 JFK: 94 BLM: 93 LGA: 92 New Brnswck: 91 TTN: 91 TEB: 90 ISP: 90 NYC: 88

6/17 PHL: 96 ACY: 96 EWR: 95 JFK: 94 BLM: 93 LGA: 92 New Brnswck: 91 TTN: 91 TEB: 90 ISP: 90 NYC: 88

1PM roundup time : clouds have cooled off here 90 down to 86 PHL: 93 EWR: 92 ACY: 91 TTN: 89 BLM: 89 LGA: 88 New Brnswck: 88 TEB: 88 NYC 86 JFK: 83 ISP: 80

10 hours of summer heat then a taste of cooler weather this weekend. Next week the Plains / MW ridge rebuilds and tries to make eastward expansion Tue (6/21) through Sat (6/25) but a weakness and tendency for onshore flow and storms firing around the periphery of the ridge should limit heat in the period. The flow does look to flatten some by next weekend (6/25-26) and may allow for a blast of heat. Beyond there into the final week of June 6/27 and open of July we'll see if the WAR can push west and link to send a longer period of heat into the region.

Rainy days and Monday's / Here's that Rainy day playing on the radio. Showers, some storms moving through N - S the next couple of hours. Much cooler and a somewhat kinda gloomy today where we are likely locked in clouds beyond the rain into mid/late afternoon before the surge (brief) of the Plains/MidWeest furnace blasts through the area Friday (6/17). Most will see near or low 90s, could be a few stray md 90s in the hot spots. The weekend while cooler for sure looks great (California Style) sunny both days NYC/NJ metro highs 70s Saturday near 80 Sunday with lows 50s / 60s. A bit warmer by Mon (6/20) but still looks splendid. The models build the ride east but again (cooler mid range) as onshore influences and weakness into the northeast create rain / onshore tendencies through 6/24. We'll see if things trend warmer again and we can see some heat in the Wed - Fri period. Beyond Fri (6/24)- The heat is building into the plains and Mid west and longer range now showing the blast into the area Sat 6/25 - flatter flow / higher heights end June into July. We have seen many (most) Junes with limited (2-5) 90 degree days, some had none and then a heat surged the last 3-4 days and into July so this isnt anything unnormal from the past 10/12 years of so. EWR June 90 degree daya: 2021 : 13 2020: 5 2019: 4 2018: 5 2017: 5 2016: 3 2015: 4 2014: 2 2013: 4 2012: 6 2011: 4 2010: 13

Could go Rick Astley or Beach Boys with multiple hits between 6/22-6/25

Weekend looks marvelous upper 70s / low 80s day and 50s/60 night. Monday too. Change to warmer and hooter coming Tuesday seems to be the progression. Still need to work out ridge axis and any storms.

New Brnswck : 84 yesterday.

Buffered from the strong heat the next 36 hours (6/15-6/16) before a quick fringe blast on Friday (6/17). The weekend (6/18 and 6/19) looks fantastic with sunny /dry and temps near 80 and lows in the 60s and cooler inland. Monday (6/20) will remain on the normal/cooler side before a transition to warmer / hotter by Tue (6/22). Euro brings in strong heat through the 24th/25th with further eastward expansion of the ridge.

EWR is influence by a "cooling" southerly flow component from Newark Bay. LGA and other places saw their temp reach the 90s those times and EWR was stalled in the 80s those days. In recent years as the WAR built in this occrured. Bluewave pointed that out when LGA had the stronger positive temperature departures.

Good reference 93 had some flooding too https://ftpgeoinfo.msl.mt.gov/Documents/Projects/Yellowstone_River_Clearinghouse/Events_Occurrences_Final_Report_111708.pdf

2013 had that tremendous surge with the W Atlantic RIdge in July then petered out beyond there. 2009 / 2004 in the 20 year expansion as well with 2003 also kind of below the norm. The signal for that ridge being anchored into the Plains and GL/MW is more reminiscent of the warmer ones where chuncks of the heat come east in longer durations as the summer progresses.

EWR number of 90(+) days in June back to 2010. Friday should notch the 2nd and between 6/22 and 6/30 would be the question of how much heat can bleed or push east from the west. But even in 2016 with 3 the summer turned in July. EWR: June: 2021 : 13 2020: 5 2019: 4 2018: 5 2017: 5 2016: 3 2015: 4 2014: 2 2013: 4 2012: 6 2011: 4 2010: 13

Clouds today may break this afternoon and warm things up into the mid 80s. Onshore flow Wed and Thu keep the furnace to our south and west before a brief intrusion later Thu overnight (6/16) and through Friday (6/17). Trough digs in Saturday (6/18) through early next week Tue (6/21) making way for what appears to be dry and very pleasant and one of the coolest fathers day in a while. 70s. Beyond there height rise and the ridge pushes the trough out. While the hottest/core of the heat looks to mainly stay south and west, the period 6/22 and into later next week looks hot and perhaps the first heat wave for the area.

Thanks Don - Needed to hit refresh :-)

6/13 EWR: 92 New Brnswck: 88 BLM: 87 PHL: 87 TTN: 87 TEB: 87 LGA: 86 ACY: 84 ISP: 83 NYC: 83 JFK: 79

6/13 EWR: 92 PHL: 91 New Brnswck: 88 BLM: 87 TTN: 87 TEB: 87 LGA: 86 NYC: 85 ACY: 84 ISP: 83 JFK: 79

Rainy Sunday but slowly clear after noon. Onto the week we should see temps near normal but Tue (6/14) - Wed storms (6/15)ahead of building ridge and eventual transient heat 24-26 hours Thu (6/16) -Fri (6/17). Next shot at 90s as strong ridge and heat build into the GL and Midwest this week. Onshore flow will limit heat west of the coast but west flow could force through ahead of the cold front on Friday. The brief heat will be followed by a cooler but drier Fathers day weekend as it looks now but its a but unsettled with trough into the Northeast Sat (6/18) - Wed (6/22). Beyond there the ridge is building into the Rockies and Plains pushing east by Tue 6/21. Next signal for warmth would be Th 6/23 as it looks in the long range. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

Warm day ahead of the next portential soaker later overnight and into Thu (6/9). Then trough swings through Fri (6/10) - Sun (6/12). Ridge does build east transiently by the middle of next week Wed (6/15), and pending on onshore flow, some areas could grab a quick 90. Beyond there the ridge looks to build into the MidWest and setup outer edge of the ridge into the area with potential storms and easterly flow around the ridge into fathers day weekend. Beyond there heights and a piece of the western / MW heat ejects east and pushes a more westerly flow towards the 20th. Overall near normal temps with chance at some heat 6/15 (inland) and after fathers day weekend.

Another gorgeous day on tap - lots of sun filled blue skies and temperatures in the low 80s. Should see more clouds building in at some point on Tue (6/7) and an bit unsettled the period through Sat (6/11) with rain chances and maybe a soaker in beteeen Thu or Sat *6/11). Beyond there moderate back to warmer and guidance hints at a heat spike ahead of fathers day weekend / Wed (6/15) for a day or so as heights build east with a piece of the western heat. We'll see how it evolves, until then what a day along the EC.

I have tried but most links have moved away from animated GIFs. Still working on it!