djr5001

Have 8” on my deck and 6” in the grass and that was measured after it had been raining for about an hour.  Today turned into such a mess I think because the plows were likely waiting to start plowing/treating the roads but then schools/businesses/etc started closing and roads turned into total gridlock before plows could do anything and now it’s too late.  Now that it is raining it is going to be messy for a bit and hard to clear.

34 minutes ago, canderson said:

There are going to be a lot of people sleeping in cars around Harrisburg tonight. 

Holy F what a disaster. I can’t remember traffic this bad. 

Took me 2 hours to get home but I made it - took me over an hour to get across market street bridge

1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

Haven't heard anything about Mkt street

It was backed up into the city - I walked to my car, cleaned it off, walked back to my office 

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

My wife just made it home from Hershey. Do you still work off of Cameron Street? A co-worker said Cameron at Elmerton is at a stand still and 81 going across the GWB is not good either

I'm downtown and was hoping to get to west shore via Market Street Bridge but not sure how conditions are there

3 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I thought people just didn't remember how to drive with all the wrecks, however i'm hearing from multiple sources roads are trashed. 

still snow+  at 29 degrees here in Harrisburg

my wife barely was able to get home - I can leave to head home but not sure I want to with the way it seems roads currently are

Don’t forget to report obs on mPING today! I use RadarScope app to submit any that I do.

7 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

I just called CTP because I was confused and thought the same thing. They told me that when it comes to WSWarnings, there's a gray area with a mix of snow/ice where they can use their discretion to issue a Warnings or Advisory regardless of what the hard-lined all snow vs. all ice scenario criteria say. Their discretion in this case is factoring in that Dauphin, Lebanon, Cumberland, and Perry counties are more traveled than other counties. So while the amounts will be slightly higher than Advisory levels, the higher population and timing is being factored because it'll be more impactful. 

 

Oh, and hey guys! Winter is BACK!

I contacted them too and was told its due to it being first storm of season, healthy amount of sleet (though I don't think there is ever an amount of sleet that is healthy), and accumulations of freezing rain as to why the Warning and not Advisory

edit: haha just saw that you saw my tweet to them

3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

LMAO warnings for ummmm no warning criteria.

something seems strange to me with the text data - the exact same snow and ice forecast is in some of the warning areas and the advisory area

Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Including the cities of Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon,
and Carlisle
340 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch are expected.

Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
340 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of
  an inch are expected.

Hey all - just a few interesting items of note that I have for this event.  First one is that I am curious to see how "modeled vs actual" obs are going to play out for the temperature profile as surface temps are going to be running about 20 degrees below normal during the day during the initial thump at the start of the event tomorrow.  Models running a degree or two warmer than what actually occurs due to influence from climatology could be a difference in surface p-type for some spots (thinking snowfall total gradient sets up around Susquehanna River except for splitting York Co. with increases in totals to the west).  Second is that Harrisburg has had totaled 4" or more (just picked 4" based off of higher end of some forecast totals around here) in the month of November 14 times on record (2018 makes 130th November on record) with most but not all of those 14 months have had that fall in one event.  Last time Harrisburg reported 4" or more in a day was back-to-back on November 10 & 11, 1987.  Fun stat about November 1987 is that it was Harrisburg's snowiest month of the season totaling 9.7" as December-January-February-March had 3.6", 9.6", 2.8", 1.0", respectively .  Third and final, for now, precipitable water values are looking to be north of 1" for most of us which is crazy high for around here when at least a wintry mix is involved.  With the right dynamics that is a ton of moisture for a deformation band to feed off of for some crazy rates if temps cooperate!

My rain gauge is sitting at 1.62” since 7am but it was coming down so hard it’s not accurate because it was over flowing 

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

That first cell skirted the city proper - it rained but we’ve had heavier - but it appears our luck(lol) runs out soon,

I have only lived here about 7 years but I’ve never seen water come down the hillside where I’m at like it is right now 

11 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

That's an ominous line and it doesn't look like it will be moving through very quickly...

I’m in it now and this is the heaviest I have seen from this whole event 

38 minutes ago, canderson said:

Latest forecast has the Susquehanna at 19.1” in Harrisburg which is good news. 

I don't like that they keep lowering crest forecasts only to bump them up when new rainfall occurs later in the day.  They dropped Swatara near Hershey forecast crest down to 14.6 feet yesterday afternoon and it is now sitting at 16.48 feet as of 1PM today which is now 2nd highest on record (1st is September 2011 and record only since 1975 though).

2 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

The guys were just up your way a little bit ago for another tree down.

If any of these storms later today produce any wind it will be trouble for sure

13 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

What's more worrying is some mets are saying that this same pattern might set up sometime next week. If that happens then I think things could get a lot worse.

Yea and that is what got us in trouble in 2011 with it being so wet for much of that year that when Lee got here things got bad quick. 

13 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I was under the impression that after today we would have 4 or 5 days of dry weather before the next trough approaches next week. Now it looks like strong to severe thunderstorms Friday PM? 

No looks to remain active and wet for quite a while after a much needed dry day Thursday with another cold front Friday and dry for the weekend followed by another disturbance with more rain coming early next week

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

Interesting that Camp Hill/City Island have about 1.5" more - what weird totals. You have any issues with basement flooding or anything? 

If anyone around HBG needs help, just shoot me a PM and I'll do what I can to help you out. 

FWIW 322 is likely to close today going toward Hershey, and 422 as well. 

Yea I have been lucky enough to only get clipped with a few heavier cells that hit south/west/east of me yet still hit 8".  I have had water come in from events in the past but somehow the area it comes in is only damp.  As bad as it is getting around here we are lucky the water table underground and the river/creek levels were likely low enough at the start of the event or it would be much worse than it is already.  Part of the concern too with the Susqy reaching that 21-22 feet mark is a lot of the main roads in and out of the city start to get flooded when it reaches that stage.  The roads that don't flood cant handle the extra traffic.  Will be interesting to see where the heavy rain sets up today and how the river level continues to rise.

My daily numbers since Saturday are 3.06", 1.13", 1.81", and 2.07" for a 4 day total of 8.07" and its crazy that even 8" is not close to the top reported numbers in the area. 

On 5/21/2018 at 6:33 AM, sauss06 said:

i know the NWS went up to the Mount Holley area, but i can't believe they didn't come to East Pennsboro twp. to survey the damage. 

Hey did you see NWS issued a statement on Friday saying it was an EF1 just a few houses down the road from me? Crazy but I believe it based on the tree damage around here - hate I wasn’t at home when it hit to be able to describe what was happening. 

17 hours ago, sauss06 said:

Northeast Cumberland County got smacked. My department handled over 30 incidents for service, which we received in about 10 minutes. I'm sure djr will report in ( not sure if he has power) his road had about 20 trees across it. My nephews house ( which I built and lived in for 10 years) had a tree go through his roof. Pretty crazy storm. 

I wasn't at home when it hit but I have sticks, branches, leaves everywhere - leaves even stuck to my siding.  I had yet another tree fall (uprooted from ground being so saturated) and take out at least one other on its way down.  That is now at least 4 trees I have lost since the wind storm last October.  With the rain forecast the next few days if we get another round of strong winds there will be more that fall in the area.  Surprisingly my power only dipped a few times, never lost it completely.

12z Euro continues norther trend - I can't post the maps I have but it is interesting that again the kuchera map is showing ratios greater than 10:1.  York/Lancaster/Harrisburg mostly in the 7-9" range on kuchera with State College even getting some love compared to 0z.  It's a big difference from 0z for DC so you can imagine how well that's going over somewhere else lol. 

Last 8 runs of the GFS ending 18z Saturday (same as what I did with the NAM)

12z NAM a bit north of 6z that has snow for a bit of PA (rain to snow the more south and east you go) but event still near tail end of its range.  Timing on this run is late Friday into Saturday morning for most.

I have to imagine that this only helps to support the thought that a track a little north of what models have had is possible.  That is a lot of precip through Indiana/southern Ohio that I mostly cut off for this image in just the last 7 days for late March/early April (not sure if this has all of yesterdays data yet so may edit later).

8 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

PAWeather, those maps comprise both the Saturday event and the Tuesday event.  Can you comment on approximately how much of that total is from Saturday and how much from next Tuesday?  Or, show a map that only covers through Sunday so we can subtract to get Tuesday?  Finally, does TT offer maps using Kuchera instead of 10:1?  Kuchera is most likely 33% less than the 10:1 totals show.  (Just trying to be a realist, not a downer.)  Either way I agree with you that's it's pretty exciting to be tracking 2 more snow events over the next 7 days.   

It should be this time of year but the 0z Euro Kuchera actually shows more for DC and west than the 10:1 map lol