mahk_webstah

I wanna make sure I’m getting the potential progression right. So we have some sort of event Tuesday night and Wednesday that might be a mix with more snow further north, but probably not a heavy event. Then around Friday we have another event. This event might be a little bit warmer with mixing getting quite far north? Then early next week there’s a chance for a significant storm while we temporarily have a good set up? 

40 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

GIMME

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Oh my, would that be fun

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Phase 6/7 in February should be ok here...they are both torchy for Canada in El Nino, but they are near or BN here with a lot of low heights to our northeast, so maybe we can catch some events in our own corner while upper plains and central Canada are torching.

But who knows....we seem to find bad versions of every pattern recently.....although next week trended better on the Euro...maybe we can actually grba an advisory snowfall out of that,

Is next week one event or two events as modeled yesterday?  Thanks

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What insurance you have?

I love this!!!

Just now, Ridingtime said:

I’m in Boston visiting from Israel. Please tell me some flakes, any flakes, make their way up here some time today lol

Am yisrael chai!

May snow be the only thing falling from the sky in Jerusalem, this winter.

the last time we collectively melted down it led to a disappearing Pope and snow on snow in a lot of New England.  What will the next 2 weeks bring?  

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think the real transition day is Monday. The rad pits will probably be 0° or below Monday morning while the hills are mixed and around +10°. Then we warm up well into the 30s.

our last frozen wafers of the season?

Just now, CoastalWx said:

At some point I’ll show my kids pictures of what it was like to walk around in snow storms. 

You have some particularly great pictures if I remember correctly. Particularly with Bryce in the early years.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ve had the same feeling two winters in a row. Trust me, I don’t like it.  Things will be better up your way. 

Yeah probably. Just being 350 feet higher and 10 miles north of Concord often is enough for me to get good snow. But it’s much more fun when everyone else is in it to be honest. I was checking out a cam in Center City Philly today because I remember how much fun it was to walk around the city and it snowstorm.  At some point this will break and in a couple years. I’ll be walking around with my kids in snowstorms. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Later next week holds more promise for a SWFE I think. 
 

I’m done commenting because it seems to drive people to the Tobin, just not a fan of the look in the long range. Maybe it changes. That’s JMHO.

When you go negative it’s like 10 turds in the Punchbowl and everyone goes running for the exits.
 

when others go negative we just laugh.

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Really is the Pacific that drives the bus....I remember last decade we had a string of +NAO winters and we just kept rocking because of the Pacific....now its the opposite. We keep getting ineffectual blocking with a shit Pacific. That said, some of it is bad luck and yes...CC doesn't help.

Pretty clear this is a multi year pattern. I wonder what will break it? Appear we’ve still had decent snow. Last year higher than average, but very much on the borderline. This year not too bad but slightly behind.  But I’m trying to remember when we had what felt like a cold winter with decent snow that tended to predominate the majority of the season

Will we have to replace ULLR with the Pope and the qqanon queen?

where we go one we go all, to the torch???

Hope y’all are enjoying! When I lived in Center City my favorite Snow walk, was straight across the city into Rittenhouse Square and over to the Schuylkill.  Rittenhouse looks great in the snow. Enjoy it and hope there’s much more to come.

32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I already think it is ...

It's got overwhelming support now in the ensemble synoptic evolution through that period. 

But it's easy to see why it's setting up along the lines of 'synoptic theory'.   We have had an active N branch for the last 10 days ( bringing cold to the middle latitude continent and so forth...), and it abandons, but doesn't retreat fully. It really backs out to about 55 N... but this is a base-line confluence result.   As the +PP structures and moves by to the N, it's going to have to instantiate an isentropic lifting interface where the return flow around the oriented ...  well, fuggit - here

this is the preceding day, the 23rd... you can see the the return flow is likely happening whether this high builds in from the NW or not... *BUT*, because it is... the overrunning is caused by the high obtruding into the region as the return flow is then forced to intersect.  

The next day, ...  boom- it's really the high pressure that causes this to happen... not a low pressure in this overall scenario.

SWFE are fun, and once they’re showing up in the models consistently, they’re very predictable. For us it’s anywhere from a quick 3 to 6 inch all the way up to an 8 to 12 inch or if there’s a lot of moisture or if there’s a coastal low that develops.  Much more easy to track and less surprises than a coastal. If this stays on the models for another two cycles or so, then it’s probably happening.

49 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, Especially Miller A's,  Im not to crazy about them, Better down south for them as there LBSW before here if they even make it up here, But i won't kick a Miller B to the curb either up here.

SWFE are BNBNNE

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think its much more likely you wait, than we wait...

That block north of Alaska solid on all 3.  That is almost always good for us.

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Eh. Never looked that warm here. A lot of NW flow and 30s to 40ish and maybe we knife in a BD colder shot here and there. Probably some snow with the WAA next week but looks like advisory or less right now. I’m just hoping to avoid any big cold. This weekend is cold enough for me. 

The late week one moderate, the early week one light.

And not much of a warmup here?  She back?

On wunderground several inches on the 10 day.  Tuesday- Wednesday and and Fri-Saturday.  Must’ve been some decent overnight runs at least for CNE NNE.  SWFE is our bread and butter up here.

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

One week of winter ends Sunday for the year, no changes

That is a bold statement. Either you are a seer or an idiot.  Hmmmm.  Did you look at another 384 hour EC op run? She gone?

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

i know Ray’s had several 30 burgers so a 25 spot must not make his top 5 but regardless of personal experience, that amount is extraordinary for SNE climo. I mean, i’d do some really nasty things for 25”. I’ve only eclipsed that once in my lifetime…Jan96. 

You would’ve loved the 28 inches I got in about seven hours in December 20 20. Brian got even more, I think 34 inches in the same time frame 10 miles north of me.  it was the most amazing seven hours. Every time I come in from a walk I waited about 15 minutes it went out again with the excuse that I had to shovel the walk. At 6 inches an hour at one point, I really did need to go out twice an hour. I hope you see this sometime soon!

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Sadly…. 
 

above normal snowfall probably off the table now 

In a year where there’s been some decent blocking, which is likely to reoccur, and now with cold air sources near us I think the chance of a couple of decent snowstorms in February is fairly high. One big and one moderate snowstorm puts a lot of people to normal or above.

56 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

3.5” nice wintery appeal but a little underwhelming considering it snowed for 10 hours.  

Didn’t hit the 4”-6” BOX advertised, never really got into the good lift outside of the noon-2pm window. 

Just about exactly the same here in Boscawen

3” in the nose here and radar says we don’t get to 4, but I’m open to surprises.  
 

go Jeff!  Radar looks awesome in ME

NAM likes Midatlantic and NE on Friday?

we have the sref nam and nav - what could go wrong?