mahk_webstah

7 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Hoping you're referring to snow.

I seem to be leaving a lot of openings in my comments this morning. No pun intended. The dumping is over.  It was brief but lovely.

Dumping

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....assuming its placement of synoptic features are right, which is dubious unless you know to only utilize it at close range in warm air advection scenarios. Its a great tool if used correctly. 

Brian often pops my balloon with the nam 

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I hope they all rain down there in the tropics

Don’t be mean George,  everyone should have their fun

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure where the idea of the NAM having a cold bias comes from...

It’s usually the one that puts the damper on excitement because it sees warm layers that others don’t.

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Doesn’t seem too far off from guidance so far. We’re getting some CAA aloft today so that may help dry it out and warm it up into the U30s. Pop a break or 2 and we hit some low 40s. It won’t mean much for the snow Sun night into Mon.

Got a burst a steady light snow earlier that I thought might have come from cold air aloft on top of all the low level moisture 

2 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Favorable trends for my neck of the woods this morning. Starting to think there's a real chance I might be able to shimmy my way up to 10" with some east flow and better than expected ratios. It will take all the weenie magic I have I reckon. 

You are in a good spot in general.  Good elevation, very rural and close enough to civilization.  Great spot for a snow weenie.  Generally true for this part of NH west of 93 and either side of 89.

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure it makes sense, but east of us, unless the whole pattern corrects westward.

Not impossible.  The retrograding could be fun.  Meanwhile the mid Atlantic thread is fun.

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let’s not get too cocky yet. Even though the huge positive anomalies will be in the northern plains this could still break in a way where we end up AN. 

That ridge could also shift north and west by a couple hundred miles and we would be in never ending blizzard loop of short waves dropping out of Manitoba

Well, there certainly gonna be no cutters for a while. Let’s hope we can keep things close enough into the coast.

56 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Helluva way to run a torch

I’ve been thinking 3-6 for about 3 days, but looks like 6-10 is on the table up here.

Just now, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

We both get destroyed in the current runs of both the ICON and the UKMET, if that gives you any confidence, lol. 

Haven’t seen them but while we sometimes lose out on the coastal, it isn’t uncommon to see the north bumps

Sometimes they show up then kinda fade  and wobble and in the end they come back.  She back?

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you were allowed to post anymore today, you could explain why you are so woefully misguided.

I might have to put this in my signature

42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I gotta peel myself away from these models geezus I need help , it’s still a couple days away 

Next I’ll be canceling and moving around personal training clients to coincide with the euro and other model runs 

Some years ago, I got out of a client meeting (worth several K) to not miss a huge snowstorm...its a sickness

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That would crush 128 west.

but of course you are east of 128

16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

in my experience models seem to usually overdue the extremely meridinol solutions , as I’m usually focused on the east side where the energy dives south , i think I recall these more prevalent in the 5-8 day range and  than they become less powerful or “southward diving” or as we get inside 5 days . I wish I could articulate this better 

Is there anything to look for that usually coincides with these actually becoming that meridonal, regardless of wether it tracks perfectly for us 

 

wasn't the "It Ain't Happening James" storm one that had a strong meridional component and we thought the rockies ridge was too far east and it would be out to sea?  Or was that Boxing Day?  I can't remember....

My point being that in extreme meridional set ups, if we get a fairly small adjustment the result can be very different.

9 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Latest HRRR trying to get accumulating snow through pretty much all of Merrimack County. Not buying that.

for when?  looks like the heavier stuff is over?

29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Back to raging sleet. There’s some pockets of better lift in there cooling that marginal layer just enough in spots. These small areas of higher cc are mixing with snow. Maybe another area by Mark now?

Posted in the wrong thread, but just got off a call and had noticed that it looked foggy outside. Open the sliding glass door and it’s light sleet mixed with some flakes. Accumulating on top of the slush now.

22 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

All frozen now, mostly sleet and some flakes.  That made it here fast from Bradford/Northfield.

Yes, surprisingly similar here. I was on a call and it looked like it was just foggy outside but I went out and it’s sleet mixed with snow and starting to stick on top of the slush.

40 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Out getting the chickens setup and we’re starting to ping. 

All rain here so far

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Already down to 32, the forecasted low

And now 37 wtf?

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

HRRR is a sleet fest here

Bullet proof for the warmup that might not be coming.  We see that sleet again in March.

Already down to 32, the forecasted low