mahk_webstah

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A little less conversation, a little more action.

But talking is SECsy 

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro was pretty decent this event. Solid front ender. Low end warning criteria for many in SNE. 

Redeveloper?  
high end advisory low end warning for most of the region was what I am envisioning in the title of the thread.  The kickoff/gate opener to a nice run that follows

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Was just kidding around. 

Get back in here and clean up your mess!

I had thought originally when I started this thread that this was a redeveloper, not just a straight warm air advection Southwest flow thing. You know, sometimes they lose the original idea, but then come back to it as it gets closer.

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This can’t be synoptic snow in Japan. Must be lake effect type stuff . This is wild 

https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1886740762546581968?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1886759214665576452?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

48” in less than 12 hours is what danbury New Hampshire had in that December 2020 storm. We got most of our 28 inches in about a six hour period. I think Brian got 34 inches in the storm and Danbury is another 10 miles north if that.

One of the things I watch overtime is the snow totals in the 10 day on Wunderground.   I think it’s some sort of compilation of models so it does give you a good sense of trends.  For Thursday it’s almost always been between four and 5 inches and it is still there at 4.6. For Sunday it’s gone anywhere from 5 to 7 inches and right now it’s at 5.4.
to me, this shows some caution with Sunday, however, there should still should be a solid storm. I think we will vacillate until perhaps Wednesday night or Thursday

What’s been interesting about next Tuesday and Wednesday, for what it’s worth, is that it suddenly has jumped to almost 7 inches From about 3 inches overnight.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

For all

Less risky when your snowpack is what ours will be by Monday.  And with more cold looming 

1 minute ago, MaineJayhawk said:

With the way recent years have gone, I'd think any snow would be exciting

Back to back 3-6 in 3 days is basically 6-12

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It doesn’t have to be big. But if that craps  out and then a risk of cutting as it reshuffles after, it’s back to how great H5 looks. Just my take.

That is the risk especially for SNE

Well it’s only Tuesday morning 

According to GYX this storm has more dynamics but maybe that’s changed.

A cold front will cross Thursday night and Friday for a drying
trend and cooling trend into Saturday. This cold air will set
the stage for the next system that will cross the area late
Saturday night and Sunday. Early indications suggest this system
will have better dynamics and more moisture to work with that
will lead to higher snowfall amounts where precipitation stays
mostly snow.

54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What a crazy arctic configuration by mid month 

It looks like perfect alley for storm to come up the East Coast or across the Ohio valley and tap the cold air to the north

7 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Fun

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Fun

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

Yup and you should post that in the February 9 thread

I guess it’s a question of whether it’s gonna tend to correct in one way or another way

17 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Will gladly take another 2-3" to replace what we melt today.

Pack ho

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EURO colder again.. 2-5” away from the south shore 

Caving to the GFS? Or maybe our compromise, but in favor of the GFS?

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man, you obsessed with pack.

I’m not the only one. When you live where I live and you take long walks in the woods every day, and the pack is really something fantastic in the winter. So yes, I like thick long lasting pack. When you live in an urban environment, it’s different. Within two or three days the package is dirty and you just want fresh snow.
 

Also, when you have a good pack out here in the country, even a walk in a 2 inch snowfall feels like you’re in the middle of a big storm

7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

You should really start a thread for this.  It's never too early.

I assume that is a comment about the thread I started. In my defense, you don’t think there should be a thread for an event that is less than a week out with good potential for the whole region… I’m surprised no one else started it. And we could definitely have a Tip type of thread for the 12th which is inside of 10 days and has been a strong signal for several days.

I don’t believe the bad juju nonsense about starting threads. That’s just voodoo.  
You start  a thread when there’s a reason.

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Why? It’s not a gain in pack density. 

Well, if some of it liquefies a little bit, doesn’t it freeze into a harder surface? Particularly if it rains a little bit later?  I would think it would make the pack last longer, but you are more the expert than me.

12 minutes ago, Layman said:

Is this slated as a Thursday morning event?  I'm heading down to the metropolis of Methuen mid-afternoon on Thursday and would prefer rain over ice/snow for the drive.  

Be prepared to not get what you want.  
sorry for the inconvenience

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Probably mid 30s around CON. 

Soften it up and freeze it hard.  
 

18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Only 96% off if you want to be literal, but there are things that go into the HREF that are part of their super ensemble.

For reference, inside 3 days you get the Euro op and 25 ensemble members, the GFS op, GEFS mean, and 10 GEFS members, 10 GEPS members, a SREF mean, and then some combination of the HRRR, NAM, FV3, NMMB, ARW as available.

Preachin n teachin

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ll be happy if I grab 2” and then some sleet/ice before the dryslot. Most guidance does seem to triple point this over the cape/SE MA or thereabouts which would keep interior cold. 
 

But this doesn’t look like a big snow producer really anywhere. Even up north it’s prob mostly advisory to perhaps some low end warning in a few spots. 

That was all it was supposed to be I think.  Somewhere around .5 qpf.  But up here it is very good pack builder and thickener.

the next one is the door opener for many.

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Don't let Kevin know that every max expected amount map he posts from BOX uses WPC.

Sometimes the KFC gets it right, especially when it’s spicy and extra crunchy.