David Reimer

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I was wrong-

Period.

I didn't think that it had this much intensification left in it.

I'll need to be more mindful of the distance between eyewalls in the future.

Thanks for all of the feedback and advice, guys.....very helpful.

Can't assume an ERC will progress simply because an OEW is present, and the eye is so small.

Never stop learning in this hobby.

To your credit Maria has not behaved as one would expect. I didn't think it would get its act back together so quickly this morning after moving back off-shore. Both Irma and Maria have demonstrated wacky/typhoon-like behavior. 

8 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

TWC seriously sent a reporter to San Juan, PR. Also one of their better reporters, Paul Goodloe. Dumb move by TWC.

They're the weather channel, of-course they sent someone to PR. There are several storm chasers down there as well I'm sure. They know there is a high likelihood that they'll be there for an extended period. The footage should be spectacularly horrifying. 

IR looking an tad better over the last hour with cooler cloud tops wrapping by back around in the northern and northwestern sections of Maria. Eye looking decent as well. I doubt winds are actually remotely near 155 MPH right now, but wouldn't be shocked to to see them respond back up into high-end cat 4 later this morning if pressures can fall back into the lower 930s. An ERC would put a halt to that. Longer we can hold off an ERC probably the better for PR. Hopefully we can time this to where it's undergoing an ERC at lndfall versus coming out of one and into a strengthening phase. Either way PR is screwed by wind and prolific rains in the coming days. 

4 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Bases on a 941.6mb extrapolated pressure, it's in an intensifying cycle once again (vs 945.2 the previous pass)

Wouldn't it be something if it just started right back up right where it left off? Latest vortex reported a 12 NM closed circular eye. Almost makes me wonder if the island's interaction may have 'helped' Maria to avoid an ERC by causing a temporary disruption and helping the eye get a tad bigger. Just speculation and absolutely no meteorological basis to that speculation, but what a fascinating storm to watch. 

7 minutes ago, Coopdog said:

Did Maria wobble farther north over the island of Dominica than expected? Could this possibly help SAN Juan and hurt the Vurgin Islands? Obviously there are many wobbles left but I feel she is further north than expected. 

At this juncture, I'd say the Dominica impact on Maria will be short-term - as in it won't matter in a couple of hours. If anything this may allow Maria to organize again overnight and into Tuesday morning. It maintained a well-defined inner core and that core is showing some signs of organization over the last 45 minutes. Maria continues to be a major hurricane and will remain that way for the next several days. Preparations on the Virgin Islands and in Puerto Rico should be rushed to completion. I'd expect far more substantial impacts in PR - including San Juan - from Maria then what they experienced from Irma. Don't get bogged down on these short-term intensity fluctuations because conditions are quite favorable for Maria to be one bad sucker through the late week. 

8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

17 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

It'll be interesting to see how Maria does now that it is back over the water. Such small cores can be impacted significantly by land interaction - hence the ~20 MB rise in a relatively short period. However, they can also get their act together in a hurry if the land interaction wasn't too damaging to the inner core - which I'm not sure it was based on the fact it only spent a few hours over land. We'll probably find out over the next two hours what the speed for any intensification might be. 
 

Yes, a small vortex/eyewall directly interacting with rugged terrain, even over a landmass as small as Dominica is disruptive. Not surprising to see the pressure rebound. With the eyewall completely back over water now, looking closed and still very organized, there will probably be a leveling off of the current pressure rise. But I would still expect a delay before any reintensification and deepening. Tough to forecast that. Will likley remain at least a Category 4 over night however. It may make another run at Cat 5 given the outstanding upper environment over the next day or two.

Indeed. I wonder if this land interaction may help promote an ERC - as the eye was already fairly small - or if this temporary weakening might actually delay an ERC with the current eye perhaps taking additional time to organize. It's over bathwater and based on Harvey and Irma - I've pretty much come to accept the unexpected is probable, so who knows. Small cores like Irma have been torn to shreds with land interaction, but it is 2017... Anyway, GOES 16 1 hr data shows the eye looking more circular, defined, and comparatively larger on IR (band 13) compared to an hour ago. Cloud tops surrounding the eye are warmer (-65 to -75C versus the -80 earlier) and noticeably warmer in the NW quad. If recon confirms the pressure rises have stopped I'd watch out since this thing could get itself energized again in a hurry. 

For those wanting an awesome site for data - check out the RealEarth site from the University of Wisconson. 1-minute data from GOES 16 for Maria is available under the mesoscale sector #2 - band #13 (enhanced color) - http://re.ssec.wisc.edu/. You'll want to use band #2 once we get back to daylight conditions. 

EDIT: IR showing +12C temperature in the eye compared to about +1C an hour ago. Let's see if recon will make another pass through, but I would at least expect to see no additional pressure rises, and wouldn't be shocked to see it a tad lower. Let's watch it over the next hour or two to get a 'trend' set on it being steady-state or resuming an intensification trend. Regardless I'd expect winds to have come down fairly substantially for now in response to the land interaction. If pressure starts falling those winds will probably ramp back up in a hurry. 

It'll be interesting to see how Maria does now that it is back over the water. Such small cores can be impacted significantly by land interaction - hence the ~20 MB rise in a relatively short period. However, they can also get their act together in a hurry if the land interaction wasn't too damaging to the inner core - which I'm not sure it was based on the fact it only spent a few hours over land. We'll probably find out over the next two hours what the speed for any intensification might be. 

6 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

thanks, ive have been following TC's for decades.

but please feel free to tell us every time it fluctuates. super useful.

Did you forget to take your medicine that keeps your ego in check? Take a chill pill.

GOES 16 has proven mighty useful this year. Already has paid for itself with the valuable data collected from Harvey, Irma, and now Maria. It is collecting one minute snapshots. The loops will be amazing!

6 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

raw T is straight weenie crack

Most of the time, but not with an RIing system. 

That discussion had many similarities to the 10 PM CT of Wilma a few hours before the special 2 AM advisory. One for the books. 

986 MB measured by dropsonde. NHC estimated it was at 994 MB. Peak FL winds in the NW quad just under 60 knots. 

10 hours ago, bjc0303 said:

You're going out for this? 

 

I probably will...perks of living near the typical dry line position..

12 hours ago, brettjrob said:

00z 4 km CAMs unanimous on an intense but slightly elevated supercell streaking across south central OK tomorrow evening.

I can recall an event around this time last year with some similarities and a similar consensus (over NW OK and S KS) where the CAMs said "just kidding" by late morning the day of, so nothing's assured. The SBCINH is awfully formidable even right at 00z, and I have little doubt it will require a mesolow with localized enhanced convergence to pop off a storm at all. Fingers crossed for a nice mothership at sunset dumping some baseballs and putting on a highly visible light show for awhile after dusk.

The benefit of living in Norman is one doesn't really have to "go out" per say. Just chill at home till 3-4PM. If it looks like storms may pop, drive an hour. Otherwise, continue on your day.

Sunday is crap. High signal from CIPS of severe from OK up to IA, but the tornado output is almost completely blank. Another good day to sit at home (or near it). Veered LLJ, marginal moisture return in terms of depth, and timing issues. 

Cold core in SC/SE KS tomorrow looks good enough for me to chase ATM. 

It'll Ben interesting to see what impact, if any, the very warm GOM SSTs have on moisture return. 

My concern level is going up for this evening in the Big Country into North Texas. Several high-res models start popping off storms near the warm front. If the HRRR is correct the highest threat will be around the D/FW Metroplex in the middle of a playoff game. Others are a bit further south and west. 

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

12Z model suite is friendly to the SPC Day 5 valid Sunday. Low CAPE high shear severe is not limited to Dixie Alley at night. Recent studies show such events as frequent or even more frequent in the Plains all times of day. Sunday looks like robust speed shear with adequate directional shear. Dewpoints are just-in-time, a concern in spring but just the way it goes in winter. Figure helecity will be locally higher on the lifting warm front. If it is not going to snow for Christmas, why not severe?

I could give you several societal reasons, one of which being we had enough folks die last 12/26 in D/FW from post-Christmas tornadoes. Such desires tend to wane in a hurry after an event like that happens in your backyard. Luckily this upcoming event will likely only feature a few strong wind gusts in my coverage area (Texas). 

6 hours ago, Chinook said:

Severe thunderstorm warning was issued for Norman before the Ohio State- Oklahoma game started, I believe, as people were waiting for the game to begin. (or during the game?)

Storm rolled in about 75 minutes before scheduled kickoff. Game was pushed back 'till 8 PM. Storms quickly moved east and skies were clear and sunny by 6:45 PM. Second round of storms arrived at about 2:30 AM. 

1 hour ago, bubba hotep said:

The models are basically always wrong at D10 when showing something interesting for DFW but this would be fun in January or February!

 

 

This scenario would probably result in a decent severe weather threat for parts of Dixie Alley. 

10 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

Is it just me or has this site really shifted to just being the Mid-Atl & NE sub forums? There are only a few posts each day in our sub and then Earl couldn't even muster up his own thread on the main page

It used to be the same way back on EasternWX many years ago. Not much to talk about in the summer. 

I'm considering making the drive up to North Dakota for Friday's setup - but I'm still iffy based on the potential for things to be north of the border and iffy convective initiation potential. Its a 13-14 hour drive up to Grand Forks from Norman so I'll have to decide by about 8 AM this morning to get in position. 

Several reliable storm chasers reported a brief cone tornado near the Potter/Oldham county line around 820 PM. 

Perhaps instead of cluttering a thread that will undoubtedly go in the archive with an off-topic discussion on sheltering practices, it would be better to just create a separate thread for that?

I was around for May 4, 2007 when the Greensburg, KS Tornado struck. I remember seeing an image of the Normalized Rotation (NROT) in 3D and thought it couldn't get any more impressive then that. I was wrong... This is as the tornado was passing over Tuscaloosa. I've never seen such a violent, deep mesocyclone indicated like this before using this product.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 808 AM CDT THU APR 28 2011

...UPDATED FOR JEFFERSON AND TUSCALOOSA COUNTY SURVEYS...

IN REGARDS TO THE JEFFERSON AND TUSCALOOSA COUNTY DAMAGE...SUBJECT MATTER EXPERTS FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY WILL BE ARRIVING TODAY TO ASSIST WITH SURVEYS...AND DAMAGE RATINGS WILL BE PROVIDED AFTER A THOROUGH ASSESSMENT IS CONDUCTED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS TODAY WILL BEGIN THE TASK OF ASSESSING THE DAMAGE FROM A TRAGICALLY HISTORIC DAY OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THERE WERE TWO WAVES OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE FIRST MOVED THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SECOND WAVE INVOLVED NUMEROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND PRODUCED LONG LIVED... STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH WIDESPREAD AND CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

AT THIS TIME...STORM SURVEYS ARE BEING PLANNED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

TEAM ONE: MARION COUNTY...THREE POSSIBLE TRACKS INCLUDING HACKLEBURG. WALKER COUNTY...THREE POSSIBLE TRACKS INCLUDING CORDOVA.

TEAM TWO: BIBB COUNTY...TWO POSSIBLE TRACKS INCLUDING EOLINE. SUMTER COUNTY...GIEGER.

TEAM THREE: TUSCALOOSA COUNTY...TUSCALOOSA. JEFFERSON COUNTY...PLEASANT GROVE...PRATT CITY.

MEDIA INQUIRIES CAN BE DIRECTED TOWARD WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST JOHN DE BLOCK AT 205-664-3010...OR METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE JIM STEFKOVICH AT 205-585-8635.

A MAJOR CONTRIBUTION TO THE SUCCESS OF OUR SEVERE WEATHER WARNING PROGRAM IS THE RECEIPT OF STORM REPORTS FROM ALL OUR CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. IF YOU WITNESSED OR ARE AWARE OF ANY STORM DAMAGE DUE TO HIGH WINDS OR TORNADOES...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE...OR CALL OUR STORM REPORTING HOTLINE AT 1-800-856-0758.

$$

JD/02