Terpeast

@psuhoffman I mostly went toward the cams for the usual fall line, but leaned towards the euro for well N and W. *on baby duty rn, can’t explain my reasoning in detail. Sorry

Another 3 hours perhaps? Then pixie dust first hour or so, and the rates increase. At least that’s the plan…

Gefs look good on this threat. Nice signal. Next event to track. (Also that clipper in between)

Doubt it. I’ll go with what LWX is saying, if not an hour later. Next hrrr run may show something different

Recent hrrr tries to start us earlier, but has us fighting dry air and doesn’t get us going in earnest till 7z

18z 3k nam doesn’t start precip in dc metro till 6z. LWX has us starting at 3z

Starting to fall, 17/-6

Holding at 19/-6 in Ashburn

That is very very good news… not from a “potentially snowier” weenie perspective, but in terms of perhaps less impacts/power outages/accidents.

Mix line on 18z nam most similar to 12z yesterday at the same hour (06z Sun). That run doesn’t flip DC until 14z

Nowcast comparison for 19z: Decent agreement, good initialization for HRRR

Looks colder than 12z nam for the same times

Looks like 5-7” thump for dc metro

16.9/-6