Terpeast

Bring it. Good time to put netting over my fig tree so the squirrels don't steal all my figs like they did last fall.

On a CWG post on facebook I saw a quote from Wes Junker saying that the atmosphere doesn't really support a storm here, the models are "overcooking" it rn. Upside is only a dusting and maybe a few lucky inches. He's one I respect and knows what he's talking about, so that dampened any remaining enthusiasm for tracking this (not that I had much to begin with).

At least maybe we go straight into severe wx tracking

Probably the last trackable event of the year. If it comes to fruition, it may get me to my median climo. Once again, I’m waiting until lead times of 84-96 hours or less to really buy in.

Definitely more than I got. Think my location was a bit unlucky with the last one. It all melted by 3 pm the next day.

We’re not in an el nino yet

Great post, thank you. We’ll keep an eye on how the nino develops and how much it strengthens. I don’t know how we will end up categorizing the type, but I don’t think we go higher than moderate based on RONI.

Evolution of nino usually starts as east based then broadens to basin wide and ends as modoki as coastal South America cools/upwells. This time we should probably use RONI for the strength of el nino because the tropics are also warm across the board.

East based isn’t always great for us. We’d prefer modoki or central basin

He lives in NM or something like that? East based is what he wants, I think

Yeah. If the PDO doesn’t take its annual nosedive this summer, we may have a shot at more +pna now that coastal storm tracks seem to be coming back, and we may also get more blocking up top. Couple that with storms (both tropical and midlatitude) getting more intense with more moisture than in the past, we may have an above normal shot at a MECS if the nino doesn’t go ape. I don’t think it will because the WWBs have been struggling and the SOI is still positive, and subsurface is only mildly AN. If this was gonna be a super, we’d already be seeing +6 subsurface with a negative SOI by now.

While an el nino makes miller a coastal storms that drop copious amounts of qpf over us more likely due to a more active STJ, it is no guarantee we get a MECS+. It could just be rain, like 97-98. We could get nothing, like 72-73. Or we might just get a couple of NS systems and the rest is torch, like 23-24. It does increase our chances, but we need cold air, blocking, and polar jet and all the ingredients. Active STJ is only one of many ingredients.

Damn it, I’m getting pulled back in. Wife is gonna be mad at me

Winter storm tracking burnout is real

Yes that’s what I believe. We just saw it happen in NE. Powder keg