Terpeast

And the SPV will weaken again in mid late dec - might be helpful for early mid Jan too

PSU will be happy too

Back edge upon me, hasn’t flipped from ra/ip mix. But was still fun. Onto the next!

GEFS did well a month ago when the MJO was still in 6. But EPS is now catching up in forecast performance since we went into 7. And don’t sleep on the AIFS ensembles for mid-latitude 500mb at 6-15 days out. It’s been wiping the floor lately.

Hard to believe it’s not even december yet. Feels good to have frozen and be tracking multiple threats. Sleet continues, 33.8

Temp getting interesting. 33.6 and dropping, dewpoint 29. Might end as snow before precip moves out? (Ashburn VA)

Didnt see anything faling, but deck shows that it had snowed and sleeted. Calling it a trace. Edit: still sleeting

If you compare the 500mb maps they aren’t all that different. The block west of alaska on aifs ens is further west on eps, but eps shows more western US ridging. Both show a TPV in canada with a eastern trough and a -NAO. Biggest thing is how the Alaska domain is resolved, as that will have big effects downstream.

Euro/eps doing best with general pattern, but not sure about thermals. Could turn out to be flatter/weaker but warmer like gfs/nam.

I think euro is the only model showing such a depiction. Either it will cave, or all the other models will cave to the euro. I think we will know with tonight’s 00z runs.

Fwiw both aifs ensembles and EPS have been cleaning up with verification scores at 500mb over CONUS. Other models aren’t even coming close.

Euro gives me a 6 hour thump before flip. If it’s correct, maybe my shoe will be on the menu……

The mid month warm up was to be expected. However the +epo is projected to wane at the end of the 15 day forecast period.

I think those who were saying less amp called it, and gfs took a step in that direction. Not saying its gonna snow, its too warm for the lowlands. Still thinking coating to 2” slop far NW of fall line.

Agreed. Even 2-3 weeks later, a carbon copy of this system will give most of us some snow down to the bay.