Terpeast

Actually I agree with you. The NYC event trended north in the last day or so, putting the max just NE of the city instead of directly over and south of it.

When the models were showing a great pattern over the next 10 days and beyond a few days back, it was showing this system but it was way suppressed to the south because of the cold press. Now that the block is falling apart, the cold press isn't as much, allowing this system to come up north. Hopefully we still have enough cold air to snow if the precip comes up that far.

Seems everything has shifted 10 days later. I have a feeling models will turn colder at day 10+ by friday.

I’ve experienced one just SE of dunkirk where we got 3 ft, it was great. But that was a long time ago and memories are fading. I want more haha

I am envious. When the kids are older, we’ll chase Blackwater, wisp, and tug hill are good go-tos.

You moving there?

After about 5 days of AN/much AN temps, that -EPO takes us back to NN or below by Jan 12.

21 in Ashburn

Yeah that’s a big jump

Yes thats right, but it doesn’t mean phase 6 automatically means warm in the east. Usually when amplitude is strong, which isn’t the case now. Weak/cod 6 during -enso/-aam usually means cold in the east, but not always.

It’s a statistics term that doesn’t mean what the layperson thinks it does. In statistics, significance on a correlation plot doesn’t necessarily mean the relationship between two variables is strong or important. A significance of <5% means a p-value of <0.05 (>95% confidence level), not that the correlation is strong. Two different things.

CMC also goes into 6, while Euro stays in weak 7 (let's see what 12z says).

When I saw the weeklies this morning, it looked like we're losing the Jan 5-12 window, but Jan 12-19 (and later weeks) stayed cold. I was going to wait until 12z to say anything though.

He’ll stay up for 0z that’ll give us only 10” and call it a disaster

That’s a folks worthy beat down!