Terpeast

Still looking good for Jan 5-12 give or take a couple of days. PNA and NAO ridges building out west towards end of all three dynamic model ensembles. They won’t pick up on discrete threats to track at this time. Smaller and moderate events often don’t show up until within 5 days. And Merry Christmas to all!

This warm up was projected to be more central/east, and ended up further west.

Just saw the euro weeklies this morning, basically a hold from yesterday. Starting to think our best timeframe for a coastal storm is the second week of January (more like Jan 5-12 ish). Nothing trackable yet, but something for us to watch, particularly precip anomalies across the Gulf South through our area to the NE along with ample cold air.

I was looking at the ensembles yesterday, and I agree the Jan 3-8 timeframe is one to watch.

I also remember us getting a clipper after the Jan ice storm, narrow band of snow across the dmv. 2 inches of dry fluffy snow on top of the skating rink. My dad tried driving up the hilly driveway, and he only made it halfway before sliding all the way back down. Wild times then

Once that trough axis moves to just west of us, crazy things can start to happen... watch out for some trackable events then.

Still uncertain though, because the weeklies have been flip flopping. Few days ago, they were hinting at a colder pattern, then they flipped warm the next day. It looked like a zero hope shut the blinds torch through and through. Then they again flipped colder yesterday, and doubled down again today.

At least Webb admitted to the L. I’ll give him that.

I agree with this sentiment. We'll have good and bad windows (we're in the middle of a bad one right now) in this volatile winter. Expect the unexpected seems to be the theme here.

Markets moving on today's euro weeklies. Still would like to see them being more consistent to go all-in on the cold east for Jan.

Today's euro weeklies now popping a +PNA with colder trends for the east for the entire forecast period. We'll see if this holds...

Today's euro weeklies now popping a +PNA with colder trends for the east for the entire forecast period.

Low of 18, great radiational cooling that overperformed.

He is lucky to have you!

If these trends keep up, there will be a lot of pissed off wives come Christmas