Terpeast

We’re close in location, euro gives us 8-10” before we flip

We shall see, but one thing is for sure - we have another threat to track, and we will be doing a lot of tracking.

I also think that cold air will not be much of an issue because of all the snow/ice cover we will have across the country east of the Mississippi

I have a feeling that we’re gonna go another week without much sleep

That big of a change in one run, outside of range? Toss until other models say otherwise.

Unless the synoptics changed drastically, I don't think the freezing rain in the PA turnpike is right. The arctic high is already stronger than had been modeled (1050) and the cold air both at surface and aloft isn't going to go that easily. I can see a flip up to the M/D line by early afternoon, but probably not much further north than that given recent trends.

By tonight/tomorrow 0z-12z we should see NAM start handling the thermals better.

DGZ looks fantastic on the HRRR right before the flip, too. If this holds, oh my...

IAD is close to flipping at 48 (18z) on HRRR. This is probably the time it flips.

Love the HRRR run. Probably out of its range, but see its trying to start a coastal.

Yes thats snow, but probably with some riming. Think this would give us an hour before fully flipping to sleet

That warm layer on your sounding is 5-10kft. Far above 3,000 but plenty of room to refreeze into sleet

If I had to guess where the true northern extent of the 800-750 warm nose, it would be along the darkest blue line instead of that 0 line on this 700 map. Maybe not even that far.

I think the gfs and euro are meeting in the middle, with the cmc joining them. Starting tomorrow the synoptics should be in place, and we’ll start taking the thermals seriously. Hopefully the NAM is wrong today and shifts colder tomorrow. All we need is a 20-30 mile shift to the cooler side at 700-850, and double digits is in play along and west of the fall line.

I don't know how reliable 3k is with thermal profiles at 51 hours out, but that warm nose really punches through at 750-800 mb. One hour prior to this, it was still left of the 0C line.