Terpeast

New euro doesn’t come out until 5th of each month. Tomorrow

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Cue the snarky data centers comments on Jay’s Wintry Mix page

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It will be interesting to see how the negative PDO interacts with the east based nino. Historically east based isn’t good for us, especially if the PDO is positive because too strong of a GOA low would flood the continent with mild air cutting off any polar flow. How will the negative PDO interacts with that is the big question. GOA low still amplified with a stronger jet further north? Or weaker and further west low that allows polar air to move south? I think we’re in uncharted territory and the analogs can only do so much here.

At least its showing up on modeling, now lets see if it actually verifies.

Differences are PDO (97-98 was super +PDO so careful what we wish for) and 1965-66 was low solar (we’re high but descending). I think a blend of these will land us close to what’ll happen this winter - milder and wetter than normal with elevated big dog potential. Other than that, not a whole lot to parse. Key thing to watch is where and how strong the Canadian ridge is. Too strong and too far east, storms either suppressed or rain. More west, we get colder air with a still active STJ.

If it makes you feel better, my top 4 analogs: 1997-98 2015-16 1982-83 1965-66 I’ll let someone else make a blended map of these and draw similarities between 3 out of 4 of these.

Those cansips 2m maps are probably wrong for the northern tier, where 500mb shows ridging in those areas. BN temps probably confined to tennessee valley and south, with us being NN or a couple degrees above.

I’m thinking +3 or so DJF for the mid atlantic, but with plenty of shots at a KU. Same page?

We just need to get Chuck on board

I’ve been thinking given how east based this super nino is so far, how will the marine heat wave off japan influence or interfere with the aleutian/GOA low? will upstream N Pac ridging further amplify the GOA low, pushing it further east and flooding the conus with mild air and cutting off cold air for everyone. Or might it destructively interfere with the aleutian/goa low, weakening it relative to what its strength should be with this nino’s strength - possibly pulling it west. Maybe both at different points in this winter?

Oh i could never be a politician. I’m too honest for that

True about the models, but I don’t think that was a real can kick. If October is abnormally dry though, I’ll concede

I think the easiest answer is the marine heat wave off japan. +5-8c anoms are going to have an effect there. But once the NH cools, that will get chipped away slowly but surely. Like it did the last couple of years, it may take a few months but we have time