Terpeast

Your guess is as good as mine. It’ll be a narrow band only 10-20 miles wide. Either we’re in a good spot for it or not. We’ll probably know the answer to this early tomorrow evening when it begins to form.

I think there’s a limit to how far east it’ll go as the sfc low track is pretty much locked in +/- 30 miles, and most models have had the norlun from HGR - W loudoun - Fauquier though it shifted east by maybe 10-20 miles on 00z. I don’t think it’ll shift further east by more than 10-20 miles, and certainly not to bmore unless the storm actually changes track

36/31, ticking down

Gfs shifted that norlun east every run over the last 6 runs, while keeping the ccb and slp largely the same. Interesting

It wants to put that norlun over us

38/30, dropped two degrees in the past hour

Just now catching up - had company over today so was quiet. Looks like the ccb may not get far enough west here, and I don’t want to gamble on the norlun, I’m thinking the local min may be imby or close. Running out of time for bigger changes. Should be a great storm with double digits E/NE of DC, and maybe someone lucky will see 10” from the norlun (and I don’t think its going to be me). Historic for DE/PHL/NJ/NYC/BOS, though! Fun to watch from a met perspective. PS. i’m at 40/29. Tad warm, not sure what the models had me at for this time.

Soundings have us at 33-34 at 18z tomorrow. Other runs/models were 35-37

Thats what the western suburbs need! Slp is 10-20 miles NW but the precip shield is way west and heavier because of better H5 as you showed in your pbp

More energy from trailing vort sucked into the main one

Yeah, it doesn’t match climatology of past storms like this.

I would adjust bmore up to 7” and also winchester is probably way too low

Nice! I can see something like this happening if the lows tuck west and throws the ccb further west into nova/81. Let’s see if 18z/0z models start showing this

That’s how I would do it. It’s not a 3” fluffy powder WWA type of event. It’s a 4”+ heavy dripping wet slush that will weigh down trees and limbs and power lines.