Terpeast

Yeah. I get it. Really do. But this is a la nina. Adjust expectations accordingly.

I feel like many are chasing a 20”+ big dog and anything less is a rug (even something close to a 4-8er)

I’m thinking the same. But i’ll take anything before the 10th!

Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think the Dec 29-Jan 5 window favors EC snowstorms (apart from lighter snows that don’t pop up in modeling until less than 5 days). But once the +PNA develops after Jan 5 (if it does), all bets are off.

Yep, that’s all we can take away at this moment. Jan 5-12 is still what I’m cautiously optimistic about, and the pattern still looks good after. There may be a couple/few days where we relax or warm up, but we have not lost this yet.

Gefs 18z a bit better than 12z, more like 06z

The 18z gfs wasn’t that bad. A “disaster” run would be a torch with 5 to 10 C 850s with a constant stream of western cutters. This one always had the boundary close or just south of us with some shots at us. A couple of those shots were a bit warm, but at that range, it wouldn’t take much at all. 500s look good.

All ensembles slowly build a +PNA ridge between 240-360 hrs. AK vortex quickly fades and retros west

I echo this sentiment. Lots of good analysis in here.

We already had a Jan 2025 last year, so let’s roll the dice with Jan 2026

Hopefully it’ll improve the mood in their subforum.

I’ll let Ji handle this one

I don’t usually start paying attention to thermals until less than a week out. Models don’t do as good a job with low level temperatures compared to 500mb beyond a week. It’s a well known warm bias with the euro weeklies.

Weeklies trended even colder 2nd half of Jan, held for the first half.

We do now have a few trackable events in the Jan 5-12 period (plus the NYD clipper). Even though they’re not showing what we want right now, there’s a lot of time for these to trend in our favor. It’s definitely not a shit the blinds pattern, but we need some luck on our side.