Terpeast

500mb closed low pass north of us. Can’t say I didn’t warn about this.

I know that street. Lived in that neighborhood for a semester and walked to class through there.

Yes. This has both glory and heartbreak written all over it.

We better keep that 500mb low at the latitude it passes. Can’t afford any further shift north.

Still better, energy at 500 more south

Yes its a miller b with high bust potential. Best we can expect is 3-5” for many on the forum, 1-3” for others

Cape storm looks better consolidated this run

Nugget of support for Jan 24-26 potential

43 after a midnight high of 50. Looking for it to drop later today.

On a serious note, SER being muted in 11-15 day ensembles. Sticking with persistence for now. And a little SE ridging ahead won’t hurt if there’s a big one approaching.

Basically said the same thing lol

It’s also nice that it was the euro that showed this. If it was the gfs, we wouldn’t have blinked at one of its yet another goofus antics

Cmc is a missed/failed phase. Plausible scenario

Good hold by the gfs. I like the h5 vort being further south and west of previous runs, temps be damned. This is the path to victory

And there is a flip side to this, how infrequent that may be. Jan 2024 gave us a pair of NS storms that dropped 2-5” across our area. Ens means were an inch or less up until 24 hours before the event - in both cases. BUT the lack of ens support is a red flag that we can look back on if this event fails to materialize for us.