Terpeast

MJO 7 is a transition phase which is usually a precursor to our biggest storms (but not always of course).

Good news, both ens and op models are pushing MJO into 7 by the 20th to 22nd. That will help us later in the month into Feb.

We should root for a slower wave. Cmc trended slower last 3 runs, and 6z gfs (what we want) is slower than 12z gfs. Too fast, and the phase is missed and or too late

Big miller a coastal at 10-11 days out. Borderline rainer verbatim, but it’s something. Very promising Euro more of a miller b skipper

It snowed on my son’s birth date.

Yep. At 8-10 days out, it won’t take much. We’ve seen way bigger changes at upper levels at less than 5 days out. Unlike some certain folks, I don’t care what the surface shows at that range.

HH gfs still trying some shenanigans on the 15th. Big -NAO block. We’re not out of this yet.

Cue the grandpa Simpson door meme.

that's because the 500mb wave is positively tilted on that one. Need a neutral or neg tilt. But at this range it won't take much

That should help us later when the PNA goes negative after a brief spike into + territory.

I'm starting to worry that the Jan 14-17 window is getting can kicked a bit since the 6-10 day eastern trough is getting less strong and the ridging over it is stronger. But the good news is MJO is starting to curve into 7 around day 15. So the pattern change after the 18th is probably real. Still not counting us out for the mid-Jan system, but there could be temp issues east of the BR.

And a lot of misses, still. Looks 50/50 or 40/60 to me.

It seems for now we have two discrete threat windows on the dates you said. I know some are really down on January because the ens snow means are so low, but I'm not. We have chances. Not saying they'll "definitely" pan out though.

Both gfs and euro take a few shots at us after Jan 11. Ensembles look fine.

12z eps / 18z gefs both have a retrograding +pna that becomes -epo. Did this happen a lot in 2013-14, or in more recent la nina winters before 2022? I wasn’t around much except for 2016