Terpeast

The shaded colors illustrate it well. I think its an offset and they cancel each other out

So about the same strength and a tick further back. If nam is ingesting the new data, this hasn’t really changed anything imo. All comes down to the NE wave now

I’m also starting to think that the new data from the southern piece may not even change things all that much. Everything comes down to what’s going on over Canada. Hope they ingest data from up there.

Less phasing, more confluence (TPV up top that wasn’t shown in 12z)

Hopefully they’re just narrowing things down and meet in the middle or even closer to Euro’s side, then we’re fine. Unfortunately it’s a bit of a forum divider in terms of mixing.

Yeah west Loudoun stays all snow this run verbatim. I flip for a bit, but not before 14” (again, verbatim)

This is after 12 hours of snow, 6-9 hours heavy.

700mb temps - 0 line briefly touches DC on one panel then collapses south.

When looking at the 00z runs tonight, pay attention to the difference in both waves out west between 0 hr in the new run vs 6 hr forecast in the previous run. That might give us clues IF there are any differences that stand out.

Dangerous to buy into the NAM trend, but it was within its range (60hr) when it spaced the NS and SS waves apart and strengthened confluence. We'll see if other models do the same and backtrack its NW trend.

My mom just asked me how much I think we're getting. I gave her a conservative estimate, 6-12" with some sleet. She lives closer to dc proper than I do, so for my own backyard I'd bump that up a couple inches.

Well, that's kind of extreme. I'd disagree with him in that Chicago is getting the goods while we mix/ice. Certainly won't rule out some sleet here, but I'd put the snow max along the spine of the Apps through central/northern MD.

That being said, I don't think the CMC is right in driving that strong low into the OHV with an arctic airmass in place like that.

Model reshuffling in progress. At least CMC gives us 10" before topping off as sleet. If that's the "worst" case scenario, well...

You're right. There are more overamped EPS scenarios, but the goal posts are still pretty wide.