Terpeast

I think it might be later than that, if we even see sustained phase 8.

It looks like this is our first window (I'm on the very very southern edge of it so not expecting much). After this first window, the PNA looks to go pretty deeply negative then rise back to neutral-ish by mid-month. Then we should get another window sometime after that.

The return of the blob? Btw, thanks for posting the model forecast change loops. If you look to the left at the north pacific, notice the lines tightening meaning the models underestimate the pac jet and it gets stronger as it gets closer in time. That nudges north pac ridging to the north and east into the EPO domain, which means more cold for midwest and possibly the east. The SST change map also seems to reflect this tendency.

Yeah, I saw that. It’s actually “ahead” of the euro now.

That's the dream ain't it?

And so is the tropics. Same run tries to brew a hurricane in the Caribbean in fantasy range.

Same page, I'm still thinking January is the cold month for the east. Best chance for MA snows before Feb torch. Dec isn't really in play for us down here imho

Here’s hoping for the best case scenario - current wave propagates east, lays down tracks for warmer surface/subsurface waters for the next mjo wave going well into 8 and 1 in jan/feb, while confining the nina to east based. Could turn out to be a fun winter if that happened. EPS tries to do this, but GEFS has been better with MJO. We shall see

Careful, we don’t want the nina to fade too fast. Winters with a nina that quickly fades to neutral by Jan tend to be less snowy than those that fade more slowly.

As I said, we will also want to see GEFS as comparison, not just the EPS

Yeah, gefs is slower and stronger going into 7, but I don’t really pay attention to what happens after that (the purple part) - too far out to have any real skill. But the gefs hollmover shows forcing weakening over the MC and moving east quickly through the pac basin past the dateline over the next week, and then cycle back to 6-7-8 soon after.

For future reference, based on MJO verification over the last 30 days, GEFS is really the one to watch when MJO is medium to high amplitude. And it’s not even competitive.

For future reference, based on MJO verification over the last 30 days, GEFS is really the one to watch when MJO is medium to high amplitude. And it’s not even competitive.

Same in ashburn

And the lake effect belts should be in for a fun time with the waters still being pretty warm