Terpeast

That explains a lot!

IAD got 1.59” qpf with temps at high of 40 low 33, trace of snow. Too late in the season, but pull it up 1 month earlier it would have been a 16” snowstorm more or less.

When I went to take the trash out, I usually walk down a small hill to the bin behind the house. This time I slid down the hill on my feet. What a trip!

16 years between 1987 and 2003, yikes! Thank goodness we had 1995-96.

-PDO relatively pedestrian and close to neutral

Halfway through this winter and a 4th night in a row in the single digits with snowbanks as high as 5-6 feet, I am actually the most optimistic in a long time about the future of our winters. This winter and last winter, we have had a lot of cold and we’ve seen snowstorms to the south of us, and these aren’t winters that were supposed to be favorable going in. I know we’re jealous of Charlotte right now, but hear me out. Growing up here, I’ve seen plenty of misses to the south and bitter cold like this. I’ve seen both stretches of frustrating winters and blizzard bonanzas. We’re also in the middle of a long term drought. None of this is new. It’s as familiar as when I was in grade school. When (not if) the drought breaks and we get another winter where favorable patterns set in, we will get hit again… and hard. I guarantee it.

Makes me think we went through a bad streak of very warm winters, and now we’re just getting back to normal (albeit a couple degrees warmer than the old normal)

And that’s not a suppressive look like we have now. Still a pna ridge but not so tall that it pushes storms so far south

Look at raleigh/durham though

Yep, both ai and nwp euro ens show brief connection then right back to cold. We don’t even go AN that much on the “warmest” day, and 11-15 day forecasts have still been biased too warm

Still a chance. Euro AIFS ticked north a bit. Probably noise, but we’re not out of that one yet

For now that’s not supported by the aifs ensembles, and euro has a well known bias of dumping too much energy west. Least likely scenario

Euro ai takes multiple shots at us. At least one will hit, imho

Both cmc and euro want to bring a clipper next friday, showing precip here on the southern fringes

It would be, and probably the worst case scenario in terms of impacts. With 2” liquid already frozen on the ground, a rainer would induce melting and flooding then a massize refreeze when cold rushes back in.