Terpeast

Low of 4

Drove around today and the snow banks and piles make it look like we just got 20 inches. The snowpack will harden and stick around for the rest of the winter. I’m certainly not gonna complain about this winter.

Verification scores coming in for ai-gfs and its ensembles, ai is doing better than their dynamic counterparts. But that’s not saying much. I’d say its middle of the pack on par with op euro and geps, with ai euro leading the pack.

Agreed. Also if this weekend’s coastal ends up weaker than currently forecasted, way end up with less confluence to the NE and allow next week’s minor event to come back up north. Again, minor is the operational word. Upside was never very high with that one. The Feb 10-15 window is another to keep an eye on.

Fair. I just never really bought into the northern track because I wanted to wait until it got within 100 hrs. Sure I got excited for a brief moment when euro shifted NW, but I wanted to wait until it showed the same shift for 3 consecutive runs. It didn’t this time. Next week is a weaker event that goes on a more W-E trajectory, a different type of event that isn’t really comparable to this weekend.

We may get closer to seasonal, but still cold enough to support snow given the right storm track.

Low of 5 right now, could go lower

For now it looks like a minor event just like it appeared a few days ago, but I'm waiting until D4 lead time to make any statements with confidence about it. That's when the models seem to be locking in the best.

Also I'm not buying the warmup shown by some AI models in Feb (the warmest ones have been the worst performers). I think we remain cold for at least the next 2 weeks, probably 3. We'll get our chances, some of which the models may not be showing at this time.

Wild that y'all are giving up on this event next week. There's still plenty of disagreement among models, and most give us something. That coastal miss this weekend really got to you, huh?

Euro AIFS shows a weaker and further south track than the AI GFS.

LWX casual mention of the event next week. KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance of light snow mid next week. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A shortwave-trough is fcst to dive from the Northern Plains into the mid Mississippi River Valley Tue afternoon into Wednesday. This feature is then forecast to become a closed low and induce sfc cyclogenesis across the Southeast. The Canadian model shows the weakest and most southern solution while the ECMWF the strongest and a more favorable track. This latest 00Z EC solution is a significant break in continuity to prior runs that showed a weaker solution and snow amounts between a trace and one inch. The EPS and EC AIFS suggest that the deterministic Euro is likely overdone and show a much weaker solution. The EPS shows the probs of 0.01" of QPF in the 60-70% range and of 0.1" QPF in the 30-50% range across the area in the 12Z Wed-00Z Thu time frame.

I think AI-GFS did okay with the last storm here, it was almost in lockstep with the Euro AIFS. So I won't kick it out of bed with that precip depication...

Feb 4-6 is looking more like a minor event, hope we can tap into that. Otherwise Feb 11-14 looks like something with more moisture to work with.

It's yours. Are you gonna deliver?