Terpeast

This is a better setup IF the EPS is right. Just a tad too far north and east

Closing the book on November and now enjoying the chilly temps. 37 degrees outside, feels like holidays inside.

The hope is the weaker PV and -QBO tips us more into -AO territory for late dec through Jan. That’s when we should get our chances.

He likes to attribute it to CC and west pacific warm pool and the pac jet being too strong, but while those things aren’t wrong, I attribute it to something much simpler - there is no blocking and no 50/50 low. Get those two in place, that high is staying put.

EPS has it too for next weekend… and an even stronger signal for 12/10. Not often I see something like this more than 10 days out:

It still has something for next weekend. Low coming from the gulf moving NE. Unfor it has the same flaw as the tuesday system, high sliding off the coast too quickly

I think you're good for an inch+

2-4” dc metro (mean)

Looks like models have finally converged on a most likely outcome. A weak strung out wave with marginal in-situ cold air mass for I-95 west. East of the fall line can expect all rain, maybe a bit of sleet at onset. West of I-95 to rt 15 south of I-70, perhaps a coating to an inch with some mix before changing over to rain. West of 15 and north of 70 are in a good spot for 2-3” maybe even more at the higher elevations. PSU, mitchnick, and TSSN should be excited for this one. Maybe Weather Will and clskinsfan sees a couple of inches. Now for the most important question… Will I eat my shoe? Appears unlikely, but the “shoetastic” dish is definitely not off the table yet.

Not enough of a pressure gradient to drive cold air down back south

Interesting it shows an AK vortex but still ridging over the west coast. Probably because it is pos tilted. Orientation matters.

Overall idea hasn’t changed much, but we may get “luckier” with snowfall amounts.

And the SPV will weaken again in mid late dec - might be helpful for early mid Jan too

PSU will be happy too

Back edge upon me, hasn’t flipped from ra/ip mix. But was still fun. Onto the next!