Terpeast

I don’t think the STJ is dependent on the north pac sst field, but rather diabatic heating from enhanced convection east of the dateline over the el nino regions. That forcing increases upper level divergence and, because angular momentum has to be conserved, the STJ has to accelerate- and that happens regardless of npac ssts

So if the cold arctic summer pattern is in place like the last two winters, and PDO is now rising, those are promising signs for this winter then.

I think you’ve hit on the million dollar question that papers are no doubt getting written about. It may influence storm tracks through the strengthening of ridges and weakening of troughs. I don’t think it will materially change the el nino expectations of a STJ and cool south, but whether we will have enough cold air is an open question. I did a crude study a few years ago where going from 17 to 24 degrees while replaying a previous noreaster track would juice the totals even more (assuming the same storm tracks, which is a questionable assumption to make). But if starting from a higher baseline temperature, things would fall off the cliff. We just have to hope we get cold enough air well timed with a STJ wave, and that’s partly luck.

Now there it is, that’s what we want. I hope the bad look is more confined to December. We’ve lost too many februaries in the last several years

That’s going to be too warm for “all snow” storms along i-95. If we could get that GOA low a bit west, the NA ridge a bit north or east, it’ll make room for a stronger and better placed trough over the SE with a pathway for cold enough air. It’s close to something good, but not quite what we need

Mostly in the southern hemipshere, STJ down there is insane. We’re not quite there yet in the NH but should couple better in the next few months as it cools.

Couple things to watch for is the source region as the STJ will almost be a given. If canadian temp anomalies are more than +20 (with Minneapolis +15 or Syracuse +10) it won’t be good for us. But if the temp anomalies are more moderate, we’ll still be in good shape for some opportunities.

Its possible, but the least likely outcome as psuhoffman says. It happened in 23-24 when that nino didn’t fully couple. This time it’s going to be even stronger and the PDO is rising, should be a well coupled event.

There’ll be two camps. Some will go warm and snowless, and others will call for at least one HECS event. Toss up, but I may go the former and then later root against my own forecast.

Let cape mix for once, bring that death band a bit west

Odd, it seemed to have backed west

0.92” with driving rain and strong wind gusts. Probably around 50 mph

Yeah he generally does better than the hype-y social media mets, and he still has a strong following. Amazing. If we get a blizzard this winter, he will triple his follower count for sure!

I agree with this. Although its getting warmer everywhere on average, we’re also seeing a lot more variance with wavier jet streams and stronger ridges that act as a double edged sword - bringing extreme heat underneath, and pulling down colder air from the upper latitudes of the ridges. This is a well researched and documented artifact of AGW. If we get periods of -AO/-NAO during this super nino, they should be very interesting.

0.91”. Missed it, was in a meeting and it got dark in my room