Terpeast

Going to bed now, y’all bring the euro around. Counting on you!

I don’t hate this run. These storms like to tick north at game time, and we’re right on the edge 4-5 days out.

Hang on, we need it to pivot and turn north. Let’s see

Less connection with the tpv

Precip shield developing in TN/KY

Better changes, s/w digging more west and higher heights east of it

Quick note about 0z data ingest… it’ll most likely take a few runs for the models to gel after that. It won’t be an instant change at 0z. More like a trend from 0z to 12z, then we should have a better idea of the track.

Still 4-5 days out. Close is good.

Model reshuffling in progress… and I don’t think we’re done yet! The NS wave practically has to do a full lap around the hudson bay and phase with a piece from the GOA/Alaska vortex. Very complex and very volatile. So far 18z (and 0z NAM) jumped our way instead of the other way.

18z already in? I don’t see it

We’re not out of this yet.

may be hopium, but I remember bluewave posting a year or so ago a 3-run animation of the Euro that had a 2021 (or 2022? can't remember) storm 1000 miles OTS in one run, and then a NYC bullseye hit 2 runs later.

Thought it’d be today, but…

Its a jump west, not enough to hit us but it could be a reversal of its ongoing east trend. Maybe just meeting in the middle?

Crazy how GEFS and EPS are trending in opposite directions. We don't usually see that.