Terpeast

Gefs showing a signal on Jan 11-12 for a post-cutter wave that could work for us. Spacing needs some work though

Congrats!

I apologize if I came off as model bashing in the general sense, that wasn't my intention and I can see that my statement was a bit unfair. We've seen incredible advances in modeling both physical and AI, and seeing 0.6-0.8 correlations in 500mb anomalies from 10+ days out is an incredible feat. I only meant that their performance have collectively taken a hit lately in the 11-15 day range especially in the past 5-6 months. In the grand scheme of things, on a global scale, they still perform better than 10+ years ago. But regionally, they have been struggling with the trough/ridge placements such that we're seeing wild swings in our forecasted sensible weather in our back yards. Again, sorry about that.

Wow. 11-15 day model forecasts have been terrible this fall/winter. Terrible.

That would shorten the torch to just 5 days instead of 7-10+ like previous runs were showing.

More than that.

Maybe I wouldn’t say “the best” but it did very well. Top 3

KIAD had 26.6” in 18-19, pretty solid winter

Vaguely recall PSU mentioned going skiing somewhere around this time or something

Looking ahead to the second half of the month - with a map like this after the ~5 day torch in the near-medium term, Jan might finish a couple degrees AN. But if those last two weeks come to fruition like this, we could have some interesting events to track without the suppression risks. Not the time to bail on this winter just yet.

Yes, the pattern is very progressive and volatile. Anything could happen. Before, we’ve seen these 60 degree days turn into snowfalls the next day or two. This could happen here.

EPS shows NN temps (at least at 850mb) starting Jan 11 onwards. As a reminder, our Jan climo 850s are at -3 to -4, so it can still snow (or mix) if 850s are slightly AN. GEFS/GEPS is warmer and more borderline, and delays the cold by a day or two. We want to root for Euro to be right.

As would I

Don’t encourage him…

New 12z gefs trending for more NS interaction on the 4th. New run Old 12z run yesterday