Terpeast

Fwiw AI GFS doubles down on its 12z look. (It’s a relatively new and untested AI model unlike AIFS)

Back edge approaching. All i got was a few flurries and sleet. This storm sucks here. Congrats to those to the S and E

50 member breakdown: 33 dmv hits, 16 suppressed, 1 incomprehensible so that favors 2/3 odds of a non suppressed hit, and even some suppressed solutions still get us with at least a few inches

Flurries. Microscopic flakes

Based on radar i may get a shot at some flurries

Here’s AIFS ensembles (which has been cleaning up in verification). MSLP mean is slightly south of the op aifs low position, by maybe 50 miles. But better clustering to the NW of the mean position

Just checked - AIFS op has been beating all other op models based on 6-10 day verification scores at 500mb over the past 3 months. Let that sink in. Today’s 12z run:

You can see a secondary swath across the deep south, so its clear that there are a few suppressed members. But still are in the minority. The op just happens to be one of them this run. Would not be surprised to see a very different 18z op run.

Not sure about the ops, but AIFS ensembles have been doing an excellent job at 500mb.

If the weeklies are correct, we’ll be mostly shielded from the canada torch and then winter ends on Feb 23 (unless march does something crazy)

Just looked at all ensembles this morning. Nothing really changed. Jan 22 never had support. Jan 25-28 window is what they are keying on. I think the warmer rainy cutter scenario is the least likely. Snow/ice storm most likely, with the likelihood of a suppressed system somewhere in between closer to the lower end.

Big fat zero here

I noticed gfs is trending that wave faster. Agree we need it to slow down a bit

Nothing really. Just the usual

Got a point there. This mornings WWAs came a little late for northern MD