Terpeast

I’ll take a blend of euro and gfs for mby

Good points. For the last few months, these modeled warm ups got muted or vanished as they got closer in time. I do think this upcoming one has legs, it’s just happening about a week later than I originally thought (mid-dec).

Good analysis. We want to see heights rise a bit to the east so we can get some moisture and lift up over our area. Hoping to see this trend continue a bit further.

It was my first winter back in the area since 2016, and that jan blizzard was still fresh in mind when I was telling my wife what to expect from the winters here. Maybe I jinxed it

Funnily enough, the last time we had a really cold xmas was in dec 2022. Torchapalooza afterward. So if there is going to be a torch, I’ll take one before prime climo.

You’re not the only one

Lots of cold air lurking just up north. This warm up won’t last long. Unfortunately it may happen right at xmas

As I said in the MA forum yesterday, it won’t take much to shift that wpac warm pool slightly east to favor MJO 7-8 instead of 4-6. MJO 7 has sometimes shown to be a precursor to our biggest storms. And while the warm up is getting more aggressive on the models, my overall thoughts have not changed about 1) Neg WPO, 2) cold air source in Canada, 2) MJO waves into 7 and 8, and 4) increased chance of blocking due to stratosphere activity. These will increase the likelihood of a cold January moreso than a warm one.

It won’t take much. We need it to move to phase 7 because that’s the precursor to our biggest storms. Ideal scenario is we get the standing wave on 7, and periodically we’d get incursions into 8>1>2, and then rotate back to 7.

My thoughts about the long term pattern and late month warm up:

You‘re right about that, this doesn’t seem like a typical La Nina, even though cold decembers do follow the nina pattern. We have three defining features right now: 1) Stratosphere activity 2) MJO activity in phase 7-8 and/or split forcing 3) Strong -WPO Even with a warm up this month, the models maintain all three features and in conjunction they lead to a cold January based on historical analog matches. If - and a big IF - we lose ALL three features by January (strong SPV, MJO 3-4-5, +WPO that scours cold air out of Canada), January will torch like 2006 and 2017. But right now, I don’t see us losing any one of these features.

Went down to 12! Now 20

Congrats central and S VA folks! Enjoy it!

After several 11-15 day warm ups have failed to materialize in the past few months, I remain skeptical of such warm ups in the near future. Of course that will change, and my guess as to when the next extended warm up will be is february. We may get mild for a week or so mid-Dec, but I think its only temporary. I drew in green below the next mjo wave to get out of the MC. There is a hint of this even within the 5N-5S band (its stronger with 15N-15S and thus more influential). So I wouldn’t be surprised to see that hint strengthen into a signal that’ll eventually play out and bring us back to colder weather in late Dec into Jan.

12/5: 1.5” (based on spotter report picked up by LWX, not by my own measurement)