Terpeast

Its a jump west, not enough to hit us but it could be a reversal of its ongoing east trend. Maybe just meeting in the middle?

Crazy how GEFS and EPS are trending in opposite directions. We don't usually see that.

The clustering of sfc low positions gives better info than median, while median is better for looking at scalar variables like temps/QPF/snowfall amounts. You can see lots of western clustering to the left of the mean low

True, and euro has a bigger difference. Very low confidence situation, but if I were a betting man, I think GFS will eventually cave to Euro

GFS and Euro suites are going in opposite directions. Just checked CMC to see if we have a tiebreaker, but it's too waffly.

Funny but true

Reached a low of 6

Next window of interest feb 5-7

Agreed

Looking at 6z euro at 54, it looks like it's gonna get harder to get that neg tilt

Not a good sign if the Euro shifted away. Still giving it a day or so, though. With such a delicate setup and lots of moving parts, a lot can happen in shorter lead times.

Well well. Get ready for the “model reshuffle” tomorrow.

Thanks for sharing. Reflections like these are what makes you a better meteorologist after the storm than before, even though it may not feel like it right now. We all take our lumps and then we do it again for the next one, and so on. I don’t do enough of these self reflections in part to lack of time, busy with work/family, and honestly a bit of burnout from model tracking. But it’s good to do so once in a while, and it’s also good to just go outside and enjoy the snowfall (or pouring sleet) for what it is rather than what we hoped to get.

Well there are two main pieces. First one is the northern stream wave currently over baffin bay, this one is supposed to retrograde to the hudson bay (thanks to the GL block) and do a loop-a-loop there before it swings down into the conus. The southern piece is now in the midst of a fast pac jet just west of the aleutians. It’ll become a new GOA low, but a piece of it will break off, enter the conus tomorrow or Wednesday, and become the southern stream s/w that eventually phases with the northern piece. Clear as mud?

We don’t need a huge shift west. Just a small one.