Buckethead

Yeah, I don’t know what to make of it. Hoping for the ground to remain white at this point. Appears all of the NC border counties are getting blanked right now

I've had steady moderate snow all day at my house (elev 4360) so far about 1500' into NC. 28 up there. Elevation is everything though, 3 miles away at 3100 it's been almost nothing but rain and 32.

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Moderate snow now down to 3100'.

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31 with light rn/sn mix at 3100. 28 with heavy snow at my house at 4360 in Wolf.

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Moonhowl you just stay put lol.

Yeah, if we keep this up, I'm just gonna be talking to myself when Thomas is busy lol.

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29/28 here. Maybe some precip will make it this way!

Radar sure looks promising upstream!

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The pavement is completely covered here down to 3300'.

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Waking up to light snow falling woth about .5" of accumulation and 28° in Wolf Laurel.

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Light snow and 26 in Wolf.

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HRRR seems to be underestimating the southern and eastern extent of precip, along with intensity.

It initiated 10° too warm here. Im at 24.

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Currently overcast at 24.8/21 at 4360 in Wolf.

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Are there any reports of this reaching the ground? Because this onset is way early.

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Via mping

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Are there any reports of this reaching the ground? Because this onset is way early.

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In the TN thread.

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1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Your work is appreciated though man! Always look forward to your updates. 

Agreed!  It definitely wouldn't be the same on here without you.

Yeah sometime this evening. Trying to get my thoughts together and see what the radar shows. Sometimes I wish I could just enjoy it and just watch the window haha.

You know you love answering 200 imby questions lol.

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Lots of moisture in Northern Mississippi developing right now. HRRR doesn’t show anything over Tupelo for another 4 hours but mping is showing frozen precip.

Are you doing a video/map today?

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56 now. You can see why those models are shifting north. The front hasn't made enough progress South. 

That's nuts, I'm 30° colder, down to 26° and clouds beginning to build.

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Well personally I'm pretty much done with the model watching.  Time to look at the radar and out the window. 

Check out mping too. Snow is being reported down to Waco TX currently. And I saw someone in the TN forum say whiteout conditions are being reported in Arkansas.

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14 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Hell I'm pretty dang excited.  If I only get an inch ill be happy with that. 

A half inch gets me to double digits for the season.  Having said that, I'm hoping for 2-3".  

You’re the man. And hey it’s showing a beaut for late week lol

And a stout nwf with a GL connection!

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Maybe I’ve been asleep at the wheel but I’ve seen a ton of folks on weather twitter talking about the new AI models. Has anyone seen them? How do I even access them?

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-mslp-wind850?base_time=202401140000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401140600

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Maybe, wrt to precip outputs, the model thinks moisture isn't quite making it into the DGZ. I clicked on a sounding on the HRRR in that ZR and it was 10 degrees and sub freezing through the whole profile. 
 

That's why there p type issues per KGSP's discussion this morning. My forecast high Tuesday in Wolf is 21 with freezing rain.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1218 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

...In addition
to onset ptype questions, there is also the possibility that mid
level drying will occur and cut down on ice nucleation later Monday
night into Tuesday morning. This could lead to a transition back to
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain over the NC mountains.

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28 here. The wind finally died down.

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Boom! Great look for Several!

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And the nwf behind that should be a good one.

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Flurries at my house in Wolf currently.

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I was expecting to see the sun this morning. Instead, we're clouded in with rime ice on the trees and 16 currently.

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