Buckethead

The 12z gfs has no accumulation below the mitchell/yancey line.

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The 0z gfs continues to barely have any nwf at all...

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And the 18z GFS says almost zero flow snow.   

And that goes back to your previous post, doesn't it? Is that just due to the lower resolution, you think? Or is this another instance of the nam suckering us in?

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 161445
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
945 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

Northwest flow showers and gustiness are expected to relent briefly
Monday morning before cranking up again later Monday and especially
Monday night, as a potent short wave trough digs through the
southern Appalachians within NW flow aloft. With snow level
plummeting in the wake of this wave, ingredients will become
favorable for accumulating snow showers near the TN/NC border during
this time frame, and it currently appears that a solid Advisory-
level event could be in the offing. Otherwise, gusts will become
quite strong...at least Wind Advisory-level...in the downslope areas
along/near the Blue Ridge escarpment late Monday into Mon
night.

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Just popping in to say this ULL is our first real chance of the season.  Someone could get hammered very quickly.

Always good to see Hunter post...that's when you know the threat is real.

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Yeah I'm not surprised and the Euro isn't even close to this solution.  Euro barely has any rain for us at all. Still a lot to figure out but hey something to track.

These borderline scenarios are always fun to track if you go in without expectations. Right now, I'm just expecting rain, but I did notice my forecast from gsp...


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Looking good this morning out front!

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It's a beautiful morning!

If this keeps up, Buckethead and Tyler will have to add a 23-24 line to their signatures.

Just updated!

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17 this morning with flurries. There's a solid sheet of ice under the snow.

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24 with light snow. I've only picked up another quarter inch or so. The wind has been howling out of the sw for the past ten minutes.

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2" and still going in Wolf.

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If this keeps up, Buckethead and Tyler will have to add a 23-24 line to their signatures.

Over an inch now with heavy snow and 27.

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Grass is covered in wolf already, beginning to stick to the road above 4000'.

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32 and snow now in Wolf at 4000'. 39 in Grandfather.

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33 with wet flakes beginning to mix in at my house. Still 44 here in Boone on Southgate.

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35 now in Wolf.

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I really think yall score tonight. It’s going to be an absolute thumping when it comes down. I’m just curious to see how quick the temps can crash. 
 
we’ll need some live reports [mention=2505]Buckethead[/mention]

I got you man. I'm still up in Boone atm but it's down to 37 at my house.

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Down to 37.4 at my house in Wolf. 45 just west of Boone where I'm at currently.

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NCZ033-049-050-102100-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0007.231210T2300Z-231211T1700Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss,
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine,
and Poplar
310 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches,
with isolated 4 inch totals at the highest peaks and near the
immediate Tennessee border. Northwest winds gusting as high as
45 mph at times.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey and Mitchell Counties in western North
Carolina.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty winds could
bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures falling quickly into the lower
to middle 20s overnight may lead to black ice formation and very
slippery conditions even where snow accumulations are more
limited.

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0z gfs improved as well.

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The sref has been steadily improving the past few runs as well.

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The 0z RDPS increased totals from 18z.

18z
0z

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18z Nam looks great again!

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This is actually the 12Z NAM

Youre right, that was 6z. My mistake.

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