pondo1000

8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

the snow amounts in the snow shield are so randomly placed, I wonder if that has to do with temp issues.  It's not just the nam either

Yeah, noticed that. Southeast Ohio gonna hav trouble staying all snow I think.

29 minutes ago, buckeye said:

just keeping it real but hoping for that small bump west in the last 36 hrs that often happens especially in a setup like this.   if there was an arctic high behind it pushing in id be more concerned with an east bump.   

but we'll see

Was I right about 12z Goofus being a tad west w/ heavier precip at least. Maybe a tighter gradient?

12 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

Boom potential is definitely there with the right band placement. We still convincing ourselves ULL's hold on longer before transferring compared to models?

No idea, but to my untrained, dumb eye, 12z Goofus went a tad west?

37 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Although we're riding the edge in Columbus, we are pretty likely to get our first 2+" snowfall of the season.    We're going to continue to go back and forth because of where we are situated.   We're not just in the game, we'll be going into overtime.

As far as the HRRR, it's not just a joke beyond 12 hours, it's typically a joke beyond 3 hours.    That said, it shows a 985 low over the eastern panhandle of WV, I'd take that any day.

Beggers can’t be choosers but nonetheless disappointing. Hopefully we are in for a nice surprise though 

18 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I'd say overall very slight changes for better today.  Biggest disappointment was the ggem which was a near miss east for central OH and a small jump east with all the 500mb features.   

Sunday morning the closed low will be over the southern states.  Gonna be a nailbiter the next 2 days.  Have to dust off all the mesos and issue a radar hallucinations watch...conditions will be favorable.

Was the 500mb jump east just w/ the Canadian?

10 pages gonna be a distant memory by Sunday!!! LOL

18 minutes ago, buckeye said:

For who?   Indianapolis? , yes which sucks because they have been screwed worse than us and I have a soft spot for our I-70 brethren.  For Columbus?....maybe if your idea of the game is getting the brunt of a storm, but for me, where we sit now IS what the game is all about.   48 hours out and riding the western edge of an incoming storm from the south with a positive nao heading neutral and no fresh arctic air mass pushing behind it during a la nina....   I'll take those odds.   

I think we at least get some accumulation, I'd be really surprised if Franklin county is relegated to smoking cirrus, but who knows, the game ain't over yet.    

 

 

Glad we still have the optimistic Buckeye on board! 

13 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I was wondering what jb was thinking.   I actually don't have a subscription.  I'm sure he was using March '93 as his analog.  

I don’t have a subscription either but you can read his posts on Twitter. A few days ago he mentioned March ‘94 but I think he meant ‘93 unless there was something in ‘94 too?

5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I know the nam 48+ and the icon are the Larry and Mo of the model suites but it's interesting that they both came dramatically nw for the same reason ...better phasing with the northern stream.    Have to wonder if some new data is involved and a legit trend or just another head fake.

Speaking of Larry, LC said this was an apps runner a couple days ago. FWIW

Just now, buckeye said:

Also, I've been following these boards for 20 years.   99% of app runners start off modeled as an eastcoast snowstorm....including March 8.

They also never get the lead time that the coasters get.   Usually the concensus comes in the final 48 hours.

let's just say I topped off my half empty glass 

A 2022 resolution nonetheless! 

4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I don't either.   Think of it this way too, this is the second phase of the hybrid storm in the main thread....there still isn't really good model concensus on that.   Kinda puts things in perspective.  We need to let this playout for another 48 hrs (when it starts to take shape over the gulf states). 

My goodness what did you have for breakfast today?! Good day in the Buckeye house!!! LOL

3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

This is not 24, 48, 72 hours out, it's 90 hrs.   Take a deep breath and enjoy the chase. 

How did GFS compare to its last runs? Naked eye, stopped the SE bleeding?

7 minutes ago, buckeye said:

you guys remember in the 'olden' days  when being on the northern or western fringe at 84 hrs with a system coming up from the south was a great place to be?   

I still feel that way.  Leaving out my bias and this particular storm, if someone asked me on a any given day would I rather be riding the fringe or the rain/snow line on a setup like this, I'd pick the fringe everytime.

I couldn’t agree more!!!

5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

If we get screwed, it's looking like it most likely would  be due to a miss east.  BUT, this is the type of set up that things can change drastically in short term with all the moving parts that are still far out there.   The final solution will be a result of what happens with the northern stream energy and the southern stream, how they interact, speed, strength, timing etc.   

This is a set up that can lead to a lot of headfakes and headaches in the short term.    Still about 4 days out.   

Um, I think I like pessimistic Buckeye better. LOL

1 hour ago, jaf316 said:

Gfs goes SE, Euro goes NW... Gonna be a long few days... 

Big swing & and a miss on 12z NAM

49 minutes ago, buckeye said:

This can only go so far west but I would imagine the western extent of possibility would still have precip issues for us here.   

12zeuro showed how this comes west.   It has started to phase the energy dropping in from the northern plains on the backside of the 500 low.  If that is a real 'trend' we definitely won't have to worry about being whiffed.

 

Why do I have this sinking feeling that I’m going to wake up tomorrow morning and check on this & see that the 0z suite is giving us a rainer? Ahh, the joys of living in central Ohio. LOL

15 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Keeping my powder dry on this one.

You can seriously come up with good sound reasoning as to how we could get whiffed or how we could get dumped on, or how we could end up sweating precip type.

For the latter there are a couple of gefs members that bring the low to Cincy.  For the argument of a whiff, less phasing, flatter western ridge, more confluence to the northeast could all lead to the bowling ball not gaining latitude and ending up on the Carolina coast.

Kind of online with what Jay mentioned, there is also going to be an ugly dry slot somewhere although that and the worry of a quicker transfer could all be grouped with the  too far nw concern.

I have no idea or feeling about this one.  It's still pretty far out there relatively speaking.   The thing to watch is the 500 maps, and see what the trend is on everything.  

So here's my official first guess:

33% chance of a smoking-cirrus whiff

33% chance of slop or change over

33% chance we have our first big dog in years

1% chance the Steelers beat the Chiefs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ll take those odds at this point. LOL

Just now, snowlover2 said:

LOL! The Euro cannot be discounted so it’ll be interesting to see it’s 12z run. 

1 hour ago, Dustin said:

The different between the ECMWF and GFS at 0z is downright disturbing.  We're talking 20in discrepancies near the MO boot heel (Poplar Bluff).  I'd hate to be a forecaster for that region.

That being said, there's good reason to buy the GFS solution but there's also be pretty solid ensemble support for the Euro solution.  Gonna be a fun couple of days.  

Seems like when the Euro doesn’t favor our area we lose. Also seems like when the Euro does favor us we still lose. It’s a real lose, lose. LOL

1 minute ago, jaf316 said:

Big step in the right direction. Though at this rate, by the time it gets here it'll be raining up to Michigan 

Seen that movie before!!!

Just now, snowlover2 said:

18z GFS is not terrible.

It’s 18z unfortunately but nonetheless nice to see. BUT….loooooonnnggg way to go!

6 minutes ago, buckeye said:

4 days out...

we can do this guys!    start suck'n in!

LOL. Come to Butt-Head…

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

maybe we should be rooting for this to keep diving in further west to give it enough space and time to allow the piece behind it to phase in.  Meanwhile the northeast confluence weakens, the SER flexes, the trough goes negative over the gulf states, and a monster emerges. 

Although what would actually happen is another MECS. 

Um, cue the 12z GFS? 

5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I choose the ggem this round.   Also the gefs is much further east then the gfs op.

There's my glass half full.   Pondo gonna be proud of me 

Man I love optimistic Buckeye!!! LOL

All seriousness, long way to go on this. 

11 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said:

GFS showing nothing for next 200 hours...as of 18z

Good!!!!