tamarack

15 minutes ago, alex said:

Do they? I thought we were looking at 40s and 2” of rain

Less destructive than 50s and 5" rain, like 12/18.  The 2.3" rain at mid 30s on 12/11-12 only solidified what snow was left.

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Quite bullish i might say,

GYX "most likely" for here is 4", more than most of the clown maps.  If we see 3-4 while SNE has lots of 10"+, good for them.  Looking back to when MA points saw 10-20"+ on 12/19-20/2009, I thought the same way.  However, come February when KUs #2 and #3 also whiffed here, the fun was gone.

Took a walk out the club snomo trail thru our woodlot to see how much damage was done by the Dec. 18 gales.  At least half of the fir 10" diameter or larger were toppled where I could see from the trail and from a short bushwhack, while most of the smaller fir escaped destruction.  Pines on that side of our land were fine, but some of the taller (100-120') pines near the road suffered - 2 were turned into 60-70' flagpoles/masts when the 2nd half of forks broke off, and 2 others lost first halves, making them vulnerable to NW wind.  By far the most tree damage in our 25+ years here.

44 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It stays colder up here so probably would be better then 10:1.

Or 8:1 cornmeal as dry air shrinks already poor dendrites.  All snow is good snow.

45 minutes ago, Kevin W said:

All fixed guys.
I had to re-up a license for a plugin for all the tables.

Soon, I'll put some time in on anything I've missed over the last few months, and fix anything else.

I do not get any notifications from this site, and I've got everything I could possibly set in my settings here, to at least get an email from here, but I don't get anything.

I'll try to check in here more often. (some snow would help LOL)

Happy New Year!

 

Thanks - worked fine today.

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The syzygy storm. I think that’s the one where Tip posted he watched the the ridiculous surf and tide on Cape Anne. 
 

That was mostly paste near 495 too. 

16" at our Gardiner home, 2nd biggest of our 13 winters there.  The event had 2 quirks:
--PWM reported SN about 4 AM but it was shortly after noon before I saw flakes outside my August Eastside workplace.
--It took only about 60 seconds for the rate to go from 1st flakes to 1/8 mile visibility.  Other than Fort Kent snow squalls, I've never again seen such a wall of snow.

GYX morning AFD was a downer for next week - hinting at whiff then deluge. Given the consistency [sarcasm] of the model runs, there will probably be more flipflops in prognoses.
 

December numbers:

Avg. max:    34.5   +3.5
Avg. min:     20.03 +6.3   Only the 2nd Dec at 20°+
Avg. mean:  27.3   +4.9   3rd mildest.   The 3 weeks 12/10-30 was +8.9°

Precip:   9.35"   +4.61"   Wettest Dec by 1.50".  Wettest for any month since June 2009.  The 4.08" on 12/18 trails only Irene's 4.25" on 8/28/11 for wettest day.

Snow:  17.3"   -1.6"    Snowiest day, 7.7" on 12/4.  The 12.4" of 3-5 and the surprise 4.8" on the 30th were separated by 24 days with just a 0.1" flurry.

Avg. depth:  3.0"   -1.7"  Peak was 10" on 12/5, 17 days with 1"+

The storm of 12/17-18 caused major tree damage on our woodlot and cut power for 101 hours, slightly more than the 1998 ice storm when we lived in Gardiner.  Only the 6 days w/o power from the Jan 1953 ice storm at our NNJ home was longer.  The Kennebec, Sandy and Carrabassett Rivers all recorded their 2nd greatest peak flows, trailing only April 1987.
 

Some 2023 numbers:

Avg. temp:  44.06"   +1.81"   Only 2010 with 44.25" was milder.

Precip:  59.33"   3rd behind 2005 and 2008.

 

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

Measured 4.5" from 0.46" LE at 12:45, though I didn't clear the whole board due to wanting a full-storm measurement.  Steady SN continues, and echoes upstream suggest continuation beyond sunset.  Now <2" from Dec average, thanks to bookend storms.  From 12/6 thru yesterday only 0.1" fell.

The spot cleared for the above measurement had 0.9" when I took a core on the undisturbed part of the board about 3:30, but that area topped out at 4.8" due to settling, with 0.59" LE.  Had very light stuff, mostly frozen, after that.
When the SNJ part of the family was getting unstuck in Jay, they were advised to not take Rt 133 but go a slightly longer way Rt 2 to Rt 4.  Good thing, as 133 had several accidents, from tractor-trailers in the ditch to car rollovers.  Last we heard, 2 hours ago, they were in CT so well into NJ by now.

Measured 4.5" from 0.46" LE at 12:45, though I didn't clear the whole board due to wanting a full-storm measurement.  Steady SN continues, and echoes upstream suggest continuation beyond sunset.  Now <2" from Dec average, thanks to bookend storms.  From 12/6 thru yesterday only 0.1" fell.

12 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

The best places in the US to experience totality during the April 2024 solar eclipse (yahoo.com)

Nice that the "3 best places" for Maine are far from the Rangeley area.  Maybe that will temper the hordes heading that way.

On 11/25/2023 at 7:07 AM, Kevin W said:

Good to know!

I need to update season pages to include last season.
I'll do that when I run through the data to make sure there aren't any stray entries from this year into last year's data.

(later today, or tomorrow)

I got this message when I tried to look up some past records this morning, and the same when I tried looking at my own data.  Temporary glitch?  Something new?

Thanks

Error
You are trying to load a table of an unknown type. Probably you did not activate the addon which is required to use this table type.

16 hours ago, dendrite said:

I looked back at the historical monthlies of CON, BOS, ORH, and BDL and couldn’t find an instance of it happening. There is a nonzero chance of it though considering all of the sites have had Novembers with monthly means that were colder than some of the warmest December means…just not in the same season. 

Warm bias or not, ORH is threatening it this year, but will likely fall short. They are 38.5° after 29 days and November finished at 38.8°. 

Dec 2015 in NYC was 2.5° milder than the 2001-30 norm for Nov.  However, Nov 2015 was +4.5, so no overlap.

Surprise SN this morning, 1" by 7, another 1.5" by 8 and now north of 3".  The grandkids finally saw some snow during their week here, ironically at the worst time for driving south.  Their van has good "all-wx" tires (scare quotes mine) but needed some wood ashes to get up our driveway, then got stuck in 4" when off the highway to pick something up at Beans Corner Baptist.  Fortunately, a farmer friend living 500 feet away brought up his tractor.

Edit:  GYX forecast for New Sharon.  It's been quite a while since having that kind of good bust.  Approaching 4" with only 1" before sunrise.

19 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Irate month.  Just smashing household items.  Leon can kiss my ass lol.

Thru Jan 15, 2014, temps here were 5.0° BN, we'd had 3.46" total precip and 2.1" snow.  That's a near impossible trifecta.  Finished at 4.1° BN with 3.77" precip (0.55" AN) and 5.1" SN.  The Farmington co-op recorded 130 Januarys 1893-2022, and Jan 2014's 4.0" ranks 129th.

Three days of water-torture mank, total RA 0.86" thru 7 AM and still dripping.  Last 2 days' temps 37/30 and 36/33.  Average here for those days is 29/11.

15 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I saw one total eclipse in my life.  Traveled to Aruba.  The most awesome thing I have ever witnessed as far as nature is concerned. Better than the 2 tornadoes I once saw on a tornado tour I went on.  Tell your boss you want the day off.  I know that Colebrook NH is planning on 30,000 people.  If it looks like a nice day the interstates going north are going to be jammed so plan ahead.  I live about 35 miles south of the path of totality.  I know many of the back roads going north but of course will wait.  If it there is a departing storm and it looks better in NY State we will just head that way the day before and sleep in the car if necessary.

You HAVE to be in the path of totality.  Even if your location has a 99% partial eclipse that 1% screws it up.  I heard an expression about a total solar eclipse regarding the path of totality.  It is like almost being dead to really being dead.

Jackman Maine may have a pile of folks, too, with nowhere near the facilities or viewing sites to accommodate them all.  Depending on wx (if it's overcast, maybe; serious snow - forget it), we may try the parking lots at Saddleback - farther from the center of totality but better chance for a parking space and for viewing.  Nearby Quill Hill has a better view but limited space.

Power returned 5:05 last evening, a few minutes shy of 101 hours.

And IIRC, CMP had called in ~200 out-of-state crews before Monday.  The rain, warmth (unfrozen ground) and long duration wind did the damage.  Change any of them and the results would've been less catastrophic.

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Whats funny is that 1969 has continually showed up as an objective analog on the ensembles. That year did have a huge turnaround that started with the Xmas night storm (though it wasn't good for a chunk of Maine because they got warm sectored)

That was a weird storm, though a nice one at our NNJ place - 8" with a thin ZR cap.  We used to listen to Roxy Rothefel's ski report back then.  No one in the family skiied but the north country wx was interesting.  For that event, the report was lots of RA in Maine/eastern NH, big ice for the rest of NH and huge SN in VT.  I later read of 30-foot drifts in the Greens.

Two straight sunny days in late Dec - not all that common.  The bare ground even less so.

10 minutes ago, radarman said:

Dec 2015 was the second warmest on record at INL (soon to be 3rd).  Also featured well BN snows.  Figure some additional amount of climate warming, plus the (solar max related?) AO spike the last 2+ weeks, with a particularly hostile pacific and here we are.  Certainly smashing a record by that much is noteworthy, but the cards appeared to be stacked against them from the get go this December.

Farther east Dec 2015 smashed the warmth records in most places.  It's tops by 2.3° at my short-term records, but far more extreme at NYC.  That month was 11.4° above average and 6.7° milder than the 2nd mildest Dec (2001).  In fact, that 50.8° average was 2.5° above the 2001-30 norm for November.  They recorded 3 CDDs on 12/24 that year - AC on Christmas Eve?

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

This is 2020…in Allagash Maine…this was what I meant, when I said this crazy crap happens. 

2020 is the near twin of this year, but worse because the Grinch arrived on 12/25, but less damaging as wind wasn't much of an issue inland.  Also, that was 1-3" RA rather than 4-6".  Almost no one lost power in the 2020 event, but we're still on genny, about 4 hours beyond our outage in Jan 1998.  Only the 6-day dark from the Jan 1953 ice storm in the hills west/north from NYC was longer.

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Yea I know this is a controversial topic, on the order of politics and religion around here...But thinking of these as coyotes is set up to get surprised in a bad way on your home turf.

Seems much smarter to have in your head that these are small wolves, and adapt to that. 

For one I cant see a coyote taking down deer; especially the large ones around here. A small wolf, sure...Sounds alarmist, but better mindset.

And how do i know they're hunting deer? There's nothing else to eat, especially not on order to sustain a pack of animals that size. Deer has to be #1 on the menu this time of year.

Coyote "packs" are usually just nuclear family groups, unlike wolves which often have multi-generations and packs far larger than the coyotes.  Studies in northern Maine showed that deer are the major food only in late winter into spring, and a good portion of that diet is carrion, especially right after snowmelt.  Snowshoe hare was tops in the summer (and in 2nd place at all other seasons), fruits/nuts tops in autumn.  Coyotes are the classic opportunists, rarely taking adult deer without benefit of deep snow, but it can happen.  Back when I lived in Fort Kent (76-85), coyote researchers in July saw from the air 3 adult coyotes just beginning to pull off skin from a big buck lying in Five Mile Brook, a shallow stony watercourse 30-40 feet wide.  By the time they reached the site, only a half-eaten deer remained, with no pre-attack damage noted.  They found coyote tracks up and down both sides of the brook and guessed that the predators happened upon the deer crossing the brook and chased it up and down the bad footing until it tripped.
 

That table of Fort Kent snow depth on 12/21 doesn't agree with the data for the co-op that I've downloaded from Climod.  For instance, 12/21/21 is shown with 5" at the co-op, not one.  Maybe a different site in town?  Though the co-op is at the water company right next to the Fish River, only a few feet higher than the St. John.

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Last year it was the same, and in 2020 the same. And in 2019 too. Decembers can be very fickle there. 2021 I went on the 26th, but it was lean.  And it’s been back and forth like that for the25 yrs I’ve been going sledding just after Xmas.  2016, 17, and 18 they had the snow the day after Xmas.  But it’s a some yrs yes, and some no. 

I'll give you 2020, as the mega-Grinch took the co-op down to zippo.  All those other years they had 2"+ and 14", 18" for '16 and '17, respectively.  The Christmas snow in 2017 only brought 2" but they had gotten 8" on the 23rd.  (Their data has it on the 24th but their obs time is 7 AM.  CAR shows that snow on 12/23.)  '19, '21 were likely scratchy, especially in town and along the St. John, probably better above 1000'.  Worth noting that the Outdoor Center is more than 400' higher than the co-op site, and seeing nothing but a few scattered patches on a north slope speaks loudly.
Nearest cocorahs obs is PQI and they reported zero pack this morning.  

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…well I don’t know if I’d call it desperation.  December is always a crapshoot, even up there.  They’ll start piling it up so very soon.  We were gonna head up on the 26th, but that’s scrapped. I’ve kept track of the Decembers Ive been able to go, and the ones I couldn’t, and it’s been the same for 25 yrs…pretty much flip a coin.  Some years it’s a go, others not so much. 

In Fort Kent, where they host world class biathlon meets based from that outdoor center, it's desperate.  Maybe one year in 50 they'll look like that 3 days before Christmas.

I expected low singles for this morning, got low teens.  Hit -8 twice shortly after the early month snowfall; bare ground equals mediocre cold.

77 and counting here.  Longest by far since 1998, which was 95 hours - thankfully, nothing broke in the 400 feet from house to Brunswick Ave back then, or it would've over 300.  We're 2,000 feet from power this time.

12 minutes ago, George001 said:

I mean it’s a driver (especially given the well AN ocean temps), but is it the main reason why I’m not getting snow this December? No. I’m not getting snow because I live on the coastal plain and our climo sucks in December and it’s a borderline super nino. The +10 anomalies in Canada? It’s one of many drivers. Honestly I would say AGW was a bigger culprit last December. This is just a classic Nino December, and strong nino Decembers tend to suck. 8 consecutive AN winters though? Yeah, that’s AGW related.

Only a short (May 17, 1998 on) POR here, but we've done better than that - temps as compared to the entire 26 DJFs.   Average for those 8 winters is +1.6, fitting a warming climate, but 16-17 (-1.9), 17-18 (-2.6) and 21-22 (-0.3) prevented a shutout.

44 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m not denying that we can get snow. It absolutely can snow with AN temp anomalies in New England, but you aren’t building a snowpack with this post 2015 temp profile. 

It certainly lowers the odds, even for NNE, but last January bucked the trend, with our mildest Jan of 26 (9° AN), 29.9" SN and the 8" on 1/1 became 22" by 1/31.  Of course, when we got 12" early this month, I thought we'd keep pack into late March or April.  6.5" RA took care of that.

23 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

My wife has reminded me we should have installed an on-demand LP genny, but we bought a Honda 7000IS inverter few years ago. Was pricey, but runs like a champ. In eco mode, I'm getting about 14hrs on ~4gal or about 0.29gal/hr. At $3.11/gal, that's costing us $0.90/hr. If we were using LP at an avg 1gal/hr, that would be $3.75 based on most recent tank fill. I know there are lots of benefits to on-demand, but I can't see spending 8-10K on such a unit for the convivence. 

We went for the on-demand because we just got tired of camping out in our own house.