hazwoper

Actual surface temps are still quite cold even if air temps (2M) are not. EDIT - also, as noted below, dews are still pretty low And then of course there is this from Mt. Holly: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Continued concern for significant icing across portions of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey through Tuesday. After examining the latest global and hi-res model runs, no significant changes were made to the forecast, with a slight warming trend leading to slightly lower snow and ice totals. Nudged temperatures up a touch with the early morning update. Some scattered rain and mixed precip showers are moving across the region, but this hasn`t amounted to much at this point. Expect precip to gradually fill in as the morning progresses, though the main event still arrives tonight. One interesting observation has been a slight cold bias across much of the guidance tonight, which is curious given the appreciable snow pack across the entire region. Temperatures yesterday tended to also climb a degree or two above model consensus. This bias was closely taken into consideration with the latest deterministic model forecasts. One major discrepancy is that the global models, namely the CMC and GFS erode the CAD quite quickly tomorrow afternoon and evening while the NAM, HRRR, and ARW keep the shallow cold air wedge across the Lehigh Valley and NW New Jersey. I tend to side with this given past performance in such events. The placement of the dominant surface high to the north across Canada is not completely favorable for persistent cold air advection down the lee side of the Appalachians. Forecast soundings from some of these hi-res models lead to me to suspect this wedge wont erode until later Monday night into Tuesday morning for these areas, especially across the Poconos and Sussex County, NJ. Went with a highly blended approach with PoP and QPF grids but the output seems quite reasonable and discussion with surrounding neighbors increased confidence in the overall thinking. With that, expect a gradual transition from sleet at the onset today to freezing rain and then to plain rain from the I-95 corridor east. Rain will gradually build northwest through the night Monday night as the CAD erodes with stronger warm advection ahead of the surface low. There appears that there will be two rounds of precip with the first this morning and afternoon being the lighter of the two, and confined mostly to areas west of I-95. A brief lull will see another round of precip move into the area associated with the main surface low and associated shortwave. This will be where the greatest icing occurs as temps hold steady and we lose the solar component overnight. The resultant ice and snow grids were lowered slightly to account for the aforementioned details. Again, no headline changes were made with the feeling that impacts continue to warrant the need for a warning even if exact ice accumulations don`t completely reach criteria.

I foresee a ton of dead Ash trees coming down this week. Or at least pieces of them.

What is your current temp?

You’d have to be one cold SOB to excrete ice

Stupid iPhone

Anyone from SNJ have any reports on ice excretion?

Again if it’s below freezing and it’s raining you would be getting ice excretions unless it is extremely light and evaporated or the surfaces have been treated ofcourse if it is raining heavily then you could have latent heat that keeps it from ecreting

Stopping at Italian people’s bakery for some fresh sandwich rolls

I am at Maple pointe middle school with light rain and my car shows a temp of 23°. Still people are driving like idiots

UGG Olive Garden. Not my choice my wife is a big fanUGG Olive Garden.

Agree completely but if it’s not coming down hardly at all evaporates on the surface. The roads when I was out earlier we’re completely dry even though it was drizzling slightly now in Newtown it is raining at a decent clip and the roads are getting wet but not icy because been salted

I’m out driving right now inNewtown Bucks County on my way to Levitown to pick up dinner. Rain is freezing to my windshield. Of course this is happening where I’m getting into heavier precipitation rates not where is barely coming down

Guess the sun angle is no issue 200 miles to the south of us. Lol Some of you on this forum are not very bright

Better yet just go look at MA forum. My god some people in here.....

You’re clueless

Look at webcam over last few hours in Vineland NJ and tell me that have no excretion. Lol https://www.webcamgalore.com/webcam/USA/Vineland-New-Jersey/7869.html

Dude you don’t get it....I was out driving I can assure you if we had slightly higher rates we’d be in trouble

Has nothing to do with sun angle in this case. Good lord

How do you expect to get ice excretion with barely any thing coming down. I was in the freezing drizzle earlier and as my wipers wiped the rain it froze immediately on the edge of my wind shield

It’s freezing rain if your temp is 27. Remember streets have a ton of leftover salt on them

that looks wayyyy different on Tidbits....

Why are you evening looking at the 84 NAM? Those thermals alone are waaaayyyy off.

I don't see the big flood threat, at all. There is no massive warmup shown anywhere, and it would take one along with far more rain then presently projected to cut through what we have on the ground at present. I think you're overstating the concern.

I drove through the aftermath heading to Montreal for Valentines day. it was 1998. Large utility power line structures crumpled to the ground under weight of the ice.

I was in college in Shippensburg, so all I really remember in 94 was having classes shutdown for the week and getting wasted.