Jebman

Mammoth is getting shellacked again! 16 inches tonight!

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

14 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

It'll then move on into Texas, lol

Nope, it will die in the Sierra Madre Mountains. For TX to get rain from a cane it needs to hit Corpus then move a little SW of us, dragging in a nice long multi day feeder band.

For Terpeast's sake I wish for only Cat 1 and 2 canes in the gulf this upcoming Hurricane Season.

But, superheated ocean + Nina + brand new fiery base state

uh-oh Gulf of Mexico romantic coast dwellers, better have your beach house on top of 120 foot titanium stakes

what could possibly go wrong

uh-oh Miami also. This is gonna be one HELL of a 2024 cane season.

26 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I like you Jeb, but no. 

Okay. NO severe canes in the Gulf. I will settle for a Hurricane Matthew hitting Mexico instead.

I hope Nina plus warm oceans mean 240mph canes smashing the Gulf Coast to smithereens!

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

 

I have a good feeling that this will be papered to death by climate scientists around the world. 

 

I want full access! I want them rendered in both Word and in PDF. That is just the kind of stuff I live to read and soak in for millennia!

5 hours ago, MD Snow said:

Weird times. Last week was the best pattern in the last ten years on our doorstep. 3 discreet threats. Today, 19-20 and 23-25. Then the pattern got canceled. But there’s still a pretty decent chance some in the forum will end up going 3/3 with accumulating snow with all three threats. You’d think this board would be hopping with the potential. However, it’s about as as dead as it gets with most looking to the spring.


.

We've learned our lesson. The new base state, Hadley influence and MJO implications of the Hadley influence is what has taught us to sharply temper our expectations. I no longer believe in snow shellackings for the DMV. Those days are permanently over. I do not believe that will ever happen again in our lifetimes, I turn my affections to places like Mammoth Lakes, Palisades Tahoe and Alta, Utah. Those places DO get truly life threatening amounts of snows and also can get blasted by hurricane force gusts! The Hadley, the new fiery base state, and MJO have absolutely NO bearing whatsoever on all of the incredible snows the mighty Sierra will get, especially when atmospheric rivers come to call. Those places average at least 400 inches a season, often much much more. The East Coast is DONE with big snows, except places like Maine and the NEK Regions. They can still get shellacked by snow. Washington should crave for 2-6 inches and start referring to those amounts as HECS, even low-end BECS. This is our new normal.

I still pull for the Mid Atlantic to get snow but today I am far more realistic. We won't get comma heads. We wont get shellacked. That's for places like Boston. We will get our 2-4 inch, maybe 6 inch amounts in the cities and DDweather, PSU and other places up in north central MD will see 8-16 inch amounts, because they have latitude, elevation and better luck than do places like Cleveland Park in NW DC. People like DD and PSU have a decent probability of getting shellacked with say 18 inches than the metroplexes ever will in 100-200 years given the new base state. Unless the AMOC stops. Then it's a whole new ballgame. Places like Allegheny Front will always get upslope snows. They are a special case even with the new base state.

8 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I’ll start by saying I’ll take a nice overnight few inches. Super happy with that option. Friday into Saturday would be perfect for beers, Jebwalks, and acting silly all night in the OBS thread. However, for shits and giggles, how do we wrangle that gulf moisture into play? It’s intriguing. And we’re 3 for 3 in getting things to go our way. So thoughts?

UPGRADE that Scraff Beer Fridge Index! That'll improve the gulf moisture. Also, if Scraff starts the main storm thread, we will be very good. Snow will smash the DMV.

If ONLY we had some genuine Arctic air to interact with that developing Gulf storm. . . . . 

One way to defy the melting is dig snow and pile it way up.  Another is to impose blocks on the hated sun. Set up a tarp or lean to and pile snow real deep on the north side of it. Don't just accept it, DEFY IT! Pile the snow up on the north side of sunlight blocking objects! You could go Midlo about it too! Get a backyard blizzard and REALLY PILE UP SNOW like Mammoth !!!!

PSU said the oceans on both sides are on fire and theres no true Arctic air outside of Siberia. But we dont have to accept this, and we're not gonna take it, any more!

Hope you guys get 4 more. Stack 'em up! Snow on snow is a winner, every time!

Congrats to all on the snow! Some impressive amounts! Happy PSU got 6 inches of snow., DD with 7 FTW!!!!

On 2/11/2024 at 9:08 AM, katabatic said:

The last 3 weeks have been rough. A few days ago, we made a run at 70 (66 IMBY). Been a string of +30 anomalies, especially at night. My husband works at Wisp and I am surprised they have been able to stay open - gotta hand it to them. Mid January was awesome...for a week. All the lifts open, trails in great shape (and employees were getting their fair share of overtime and it was truly a jovial atmosphere there). And like that, the switch flipped which made the good stretch even more painful to say goodbye to. The next week they will be able to make snow at night, so there's that.

Wisp and snowshoe are getting in on some good snows.

Congrats to all who get snow. Hopefully it piles up but good.

5 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Ellinwoods first call

What Ellinwood is saying to us with this diagram is, So much snow has accumulated, that the diagram looks bluish gray. So, Ellinwood is the Jedi. He's the one who is willing the storm south.

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If you’re referring to tonight into tomorrow, it’s looking better.

Bet you were certain the niners would win also

The Niners fought well. They fought hard. Damn those chiefs to hell!

Meanwhile, in other news, there's a meltdown goin on in the NE sub over the ukie. It's nothing short of Glorious!

Need to determine  if the bad fortunes in the NE sub may indeed be a piece of this Hadley cell/fiery base state thing. If so, could be lookin at a deb playbook fifth rule. Lucy's doing her thing in the NE/SNE as well.

We might be southing this thing with willpower after all. Someone here has got 20000 medicloreans, massive Jedi in the making. Reverse March 2001 in progress. NE forecast for 20 inches, Washington wakes up to couple feet snow instead. Might be a deb on Boston.

Encouraging typhoon tip commented posters in ne sub acting like they are on the spectrum. Good times!

On 2/9/2024 at 11:17 AM, psuhoffman said:

We really did crack the code. But we have to use this judiciously. With great power comes great responsibility 

Welcome all to the Mid Atlantic Panic Room.

We get teased by epic patterns 360 hours away, every day from Oct 1 to April 1.

Here you get to be debbed nearly to death.

There is always a perfectly rational reason we didn't get the deep snow the epic pattern advertised.  There is always a perfectly irrational reason we didn't get the deep snow the epic pattern advertised. Lucy is in wonderful Superbowl form! And speaking of superbowls, the Niners lost so this is where we really stack up the bonuses! The Superbowl failed us, since we love the Ravens and we wanted the Niners to smash the chiefs, but the chiefs won. So not only do we get to be Lucy'd, we will also get Torched into the bargain! Abandon ALL hope up in here!

On 2/10/2024 at 5:50 AM, yoda said:

Fine.  I can't wait for the posts over the next few weeks trying to explain how these awesome looking pictures somehow failed us

1. Fiery hot base state.

2. Fuckin Hadley Cells. Hadley messed up the MJO.

These two features are why we got epically Lucy'd after seeing those incredible model runs for weeks.

BTW, this is basically the Deb Playbook Rule No. 4.

On 2/9/2024 at 7:14 AM, EastCoast NPZ said:

Permanent ground hog day here.  Every morning you wake up and see an amazing pattern 2 weeks away.

Aaaaaaaaaaaannnndddd..............

That's the Deb Playbook Rule No 3.

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Anyone wanting a fun Super Bowl, this has been a great one. What more could you want!?

The Niners to win.

Damn. So hard-fought. Those damned chiefs always come from behind. Damn damn DAMN!

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I’m waiting until the 18th to call it. If that event fails, and the models are still trending warm all the way into march, then I’m going to start wrapping this thing up and looking at potential winter destinations for next year

Palisades Tahoe, Alta Utah and Mammoth Lakes are all definitely worth your due consideration.

They never let you down. The base state never applies. Many of those places sport snow year-round! Hadley Cells dont mean nothing there. It always snows, you get snowed in bad and you will ski your legs off.

You got the immensity of the Pacific, incredible orography and the Sierras! it just does what it wants there all the time, and that is, IT SNOWS AND SNOWS AND SNOWS! In feet!

Your heart will never break ever again. You wont have to wait 8 years for real snow. Take one gander at this webpage! This place is my DREAM!

https://blog.palisadestahoe.com/operations/how-we-report-snow/

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Talk to me goose.  WTF happened.  Those epic “wow” GEFS runs.  Never before seen runs….seems to be imploding.  

Don't think, just DO IT Nino!

South that SNE bliz back here in the DMV where it belongs!

C'MON Niners, smash HELL out of those damn chiefs!

Just now, stormy said:

I will be brief with an answer before deferring to the C.C. Thread.

You obviously misunderstand the premise.

This study suggests that the Glacial-interglacial cycles are not germane anymore because of our CO2 transgressions.

The climate gurus at the U.N. said 5 years ago that it would be more than 300 years before the AMOC shuts down.  Now, many scientists are saying with the AMOC at its weakest in 1,600 years, it could shut down completely between 2025 and 2095.

That's serious stuff. But we would all get snow