MANDA

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 0z EPS shifted to showing more blocking long range. This could mean better rainfall chances and less 95°+ major heat potential later in August. But it’s one of those things that could shift if the WAR is stronger in later runs. 

New run

Old run

 

IF real I wouldn't mind that pattern going into peak hurricane season.  Trof axis around Ohio Valley, dominate WAR just offshore and blocking near Atlantic Canada.  One can hope some semblance of that pattern comes to fruition for later in August.

Few pop ups now over Union and Somerset Counties.  Will be interesting to see if the blossom and unload?

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Numerous flash flood reports coming out of Lakewood.

 

 

And it is not over yet.  More storms developing on the western end of the cluster and destined to train over the already soaked and flooded areas.

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

4" in the Lakewood area

 

 

Was just going to post.  Northern Ocean County getting trained good.  Outflow signature on radar going NW and south from storm cluster.    Northern Ocean getting drenched with likely local flooding.  Not a drop here

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the steering flow under 500 mb is pretty much non existent. So these storms rain themselves out in place. While there could some hail contamination, radar estimates have several areas over 2.00” in NE PA.

Yeah, exactly.  Plot shows it well.  Per radar they are raining themselves out in place and then new ones form.  Places in NEPA are getting drenched.  Not over a widespread area but there are locations that are going to end up with hefty totals and LOCAL flash flooding.   We need to get storms to pop over NJ because the ones in NEPA are not destined to MOVE into NJ.

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

some convection getting going N of NYC and also over the Poconos

Yep and storm motion is slow.  Places likely getting drenched.

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I dont expect widespread drought busting rains til fall or a tropical system but this still looked promising for at least a decent amount over the next 3 days. We'll see, maybe the models will be wrong again

Totally agree.  At this point the hit and miss showers are not going to cut it.  Fall coastal or tropical system will be what is needed to start reversing or fix in one fell swoop (if very wet TS) the negative rainfall departures.   This pattern is not going to cut it.  Only positive I see is if WAR remains dominate and westward enough is that any tropical system at least has a chance to affect the east coast either by coming up the coast of Gulf landfall and then remnants coming up along or east of the mountains.  Nothing happening over the next 1-2 weeks that's for sure.  Lets just hope the WAR can nose west enough to allow for that pathway down the road.  All the clouds this morning are doing the atmosphere no favors in terms of instability today.

24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's pretty incredible how bad they've been and it may turn out that last night was the most active day we'll see during this stretch

Old saying....When in drought leave it out.  Meaning rain out of the forecast in longer range 3-5 day forecasts.  This is a terrible pattern. Some will get lucky with heavier totals next 24-48 hours but not widespread and nothing that is going to end horrible dry spell for large portion of the area.

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I know Euro has been advertising a decent period of rain for tonight, but RGEM and HRRR give us pretty much nothing. Not getting my hopes up for anything.

As well you shouldn't.  My expectations are very low.  The dryness is no joke at this point.  Next several days look to offer nothing and ground will continue to dry.  Tropics are shut down so we're not getting any potential help from there anytime soon.  One big SAL burst after another on top of unfavorable MJO phases.

49 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Pretty sunset tonight. 

Beautiful picture !  Stunning!

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Weird looking watch "box"

 

I think the chances of any meaningful rainfall going forward today across NJ is very low.  Not a good thing as rest of the week does not offer much.  Parts of NJ are almost certainly going to bounce into D1 conditions this week or next.

Just now, hooralph said:

 

This part of NJ has done very well recently!  Had .04" here a little bit ago as fast moving shower moved through.  Expectations for rest of the day are low.

SPS says 80% chance watch box will be issued for parts of NNJ into SNE.  Think anything will be very localized.

Nasty out there.  DP's will get mixed out some as we progress through the afternoon but for sure one of our more uncomfortable days in progress.

Worse combination of temperature and DP I ever felt around here was the July Heatwave of 1995.  Felt nothing like that before or since.  It was just suffocating.

Anyone remember that?  Was incredibly deadly in the Mid-West.  Combination of T and DP out there was as extreme as it has ever been.

So while hot now for sure we're a ways from that brutal heat.

Will be interesting to see some of totals come tomorrow morning.  Especially over parts of Sussex County NJ and NE NJ and parts of L.I.   There were parts of Sussex County that had 2-3" totals as of 8:00 this morning and from the looks of radar some of the same areas have been soaked a few times since then.  NE NJ and parts of L.I. have also been hit several times with torrential downpours.  Worst of it so far has gone around my location.  Had .44" period ending 8:00 this morning and another .60" since then.  That on top of the .25" Sunday morning.  Just enough but not too much.   All going to good use instead of rapid runoff.  Short soakings.

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

1PM Round up:

 

PHL: 92
New Brnswck: 90
TTN: 90
ACY: 89
EWR: 86
BLM: 82
TEB: 81
JFK: 80
ISP: 79
NYC: 77
LGA: 77
 

Heat index readings SNJ just nasty.  Air mass is juiced that is for sure.  DP's mid to some upper 70's. About the upper end of what we see around here.

14 hours ago, MANDA said:

Did well here.  Hail pea to some marble size.  Winds gusts to est. 40 mph.

Not enough hail to coat the ground but hail nonetheless.

Did not go out to read the gauge but has to be .50" to .75" based on how hard it rained for roughly 20 min.

Will check total in the morning.  Thunder and lightning was minimal.

Total was .77".  I'll take it and run!

Did well here.  Hail pea to some marble size.  Winds gusts to est. 40 mph.

Not enough hail to coat the ground but hail nonetheless.

Did not go out to read the gauge but has to be .50" to .75" based on how hard it rained for roughly 20 min.

Will check total in the morning.  Thunder and lightning was minimal.

47 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I'll take anything at this point.  I hope this holds together!

 

 

Fell apart and the leftovers went just to my south.  Oh well.  This was probably my last shot at something "decent" for 3-5 days.

I'll take anything at this point.  I hope this holds together!

12:45 and have been in the parting snow band for about 30 min with moderate to heavy snow and NEAR blizzard conditions.  Current temp 25.5 with vis about 1/4 mi, sometimes a little lower when wind gusts.  

As of noon 2.5".  Tough to measure with the wind.  Will measure once this band exits but believe up to near or a tad over 3" now.

9:30 -  Vis 1/4 mi S/BS small fine flakes but lots of them

29.3 degrees.

Everything including pavement and concrete accumulating.

19 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Big difference in conditions from where you are at elevation as compared to those on I80 to your south.

Yes, my neighborhood rises sharply to north of Rt. 80 and that elevation helps in events like this.

Was the same earlier this past week.

8:00 a.m. - 37 degrees with light to moderate rain.

8:20 a.m. - 33 degrees with sleet and rain mixed.

8:30 a.m. - 32 degrees light to moderate snow

9:00 a.m. - 29 degrees with light to moderate snow.

Accumulating on everything but pavement and concrete but just starting to stick on those surfaces now.  Winds gusty!

2 minutes ago, mannylovessnow said:

What website is that?

https://www.cocorahs.org/

Early look at some snow totals off CoCoRaHs