Snowncanes

Just a hypothesis, but maybe since they’re partially based on analogs, they tend to “moderate” things. We saw the same thing with the strong HP last storm. The physics models are allowed to run wild with whatever dreams they want to come up with and the AI are held back by their data ingested.

Euro AI looks like gfs with the upper low. Looks to be a good run incoming!

Regular GFS closes it off in Illinois at hr 66. Looks to be fairly similar if not slightly east of AI. But still a great look

AiGFS has the low closing off further north like the RGEM. Dives it down through extreme NE Alabama. Neutral to slightly negative tilt too. Looks like a great run

I just looked at the point forecast for RDU, and if my math isn’t failing me thats 11” and still snowing lol. Also 20mph gusts through the height of the storm. Crazy.

So we have the far west RGEM and the far east ICON with pretty much everything else smack in the middle.

Should mean the Canadian looks nice. I just wonder if that upper low is going to close off that far north. A pretty far outlier right now versus everything else. But not impossible I suppose

Dives down into N Alabama before working its way east. May give our GA peeps a little something

RDPS closes off the upper low all the way up in Iowa… way earlier than everything else

Who doesn’t love an 84hr NAM clown map? Obviously still snowing at this point (for presumably a while too)

Hr 72 is a good bit more east on the 5H and slower to cutoff and go neutral/neg. Not sure how this impacts the downstream yet

10:1 euro map

precip shield looks weird on this run. Would imagine it fills in as we get to hour90. H5 looks decent, not as good as gfs but still trending well for us I think.

It’s quiet… euro running. AI out to 36 looks the same

Canadian. Hopefully this appeases the NW trend worriers

Canadian weenie run inbound. H5 almost the same as the gfs. A little south.

Another run for the weenies. H5 cutoff low exactly the same spot at 18z Sunday.

Well I guess his forecast is changing drastically now then lol

Man the GFS has actually been the most consistent the last day and a half. Trying not to let it suck me in lol

Whiff again at the surface. Need a little less interaction with the 50/50 low in order for it to close off I think. Trended west early on, Didnt close off. Pick your poison

ICON a little stronger and more west with the northern stream energy at hr84-90 but doesn’t look like it closes off as early

KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence is increasing in the potential for a coastal low to bring a period of snow and bitter cold to central NC sometime between Friday night and Sunday, though details on timing, amounts, and impacts remain uncertain. Medium-range guidance and ensembles continue to signal the development of a very favorable synoptic pattern for a coastal low developing late this week into the weekend. A mid/upper level trough will dive southward across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys before cutting off just west of the Appalachian mountains. This would support a surface low developing along the Gulf shore, then sweeping across northern Florida, and deepen off the Carolina coast on Saturday bringing precipitation to Central NC. Recent model trends favor a slightly farther west track of the upper low and surface cyclone, which has increased chances for snow inland across central NC. With the Arctic air mass already in place, and forecast soundings showing no warm nose aloft, precipitation would fall primarily as snow, with no sleet or freezing rain mixing in at this time. As the upper low moves across the region Saturday into Sunday northerly flow should help keep the cold air across central NC through the weekend during the precipitation. While this Miller-A storm setup is one of the more favorable for snowfall across the area, significant accumulations are not guaranteed. Snowfall amounts will depend heavily on the location, timing, and interaction of the northern and southern stream flow. Another major factor in play is the location and proximity of the coastal low offshore. At this time, confidence is highest for frigid temperatures over the weekend mixed with a chance of wintry precipitation as early as Friday night through Sunday morning. However, it is too early to pinpoint where the heavier snowfall will fall and where the narrow deformation band would be most likely. RAH seems fairly bullish

500 level trended slightly better. A little more southwest. Just not quite soon enough for a full bomb, but it’s close.

6z euro AI looks a few ticks better at 5H. Goes neutral a little earlier and negative a little further SW

I don’t have the kuchera but here’s 10:1