psuhoffman

And may I suggest for those that NEED a snow fix...start chasing. My ski hobby helps a lot. For the last few weeks I have been way less worried about the day to day ups and downs of our snow chances here partly because I have been focused on what might happen up in northern New England. Same earlier in the season when I was focused on out west and not worried about the fact our pattern here was going to shit. You don't have to ski... set aside time for one or two trips to a snowy area each year and focus on that instead of it snowing here. Just a suggestion, it helps me, but everyone is different.

Yea... but since I'm not going to uproot my kids and take them away from their mom and walk out on a really good job 12 years from earning my pension...just because I love snow...that isn't happening anytime soon. I will probably move to south central Vermont when I retire and the kids are both out of the house. Until then... I just have to accept what it is. The kids love snow but they aren't picky...as long as we get a couple good snows a year (and they define good as like 3") they are happy and we still get that most winters at least. I have been frustrated the last few years by a couple (mostly stupid) factors...one being I had not come to acceptance with the reality yet. I was still stubbornly holding out hope that MOST of our troubles were just bad luck or cyclical and that things would bounce back. I still think things might bounce back some, eventually the PDO will improve...but truth is things are not what they once were and I need to just come to Jesus about that. The other was my stupid tendency to argue with the people that want to be "less than objectively scientific" about this. I need to let that go. At this point I just hope the trends slow down...I hope that once the PDO flips it stabilizes things. Because if things keep warming in the eastern US at the same rate it has been the last 30 years...truth is there won't be much of any winter at all soon...we "joke" about us being SC but truth is we are only 10-20 years away from that actually being true if the current warning rate continues. I am NOT saying it is going to, I think we are in a spike due to the 2016 Nino and the PDO cycle in tandem...but just saying...if things don't level off soon in that regard there really wont be any true winter or hope of much snow at all anymore very soon.

That map included the last +PDO cycle

Unfortunately I think the fact the boundary layer is warming faster is the simplest most likely culprit of that. Same reason the more elevated parts of our region haven’t suffered as much the last 8 years, and I mean compared to average, obviously they will always get more snow. But places with some elevation in our region are closer to avg over the last 10 years than 95. Also you’re adding heat from the gulf. That’s probably some of it too. But neither of those factors is going to change.

Someone remind me…we want to be on the southern edge of a snowstorm at day 6-10 right?

They did. No one is arguing with you about that.

That isn’t even that good a look. Implies the amplification happens too late and north.

I actually went the other way. Absent an arctic airmass, which we just don’t have, I was thinking we need NS involvement. Without a phases bomb not sure how we cool the boundary layer enough. I hope we get a test case for our theories.

Trivial is right. The point is the same.

Most of our big snows have an inverted trough feature to their west not a high. That’s often what caused the extreme moisture transport needed to get big snow totals. A high being directly NW of the storm is actually pretty rare.

Serious question. Do you think a STJ gulf storm with the associated heat that would come with it can work this late? I was thinking our only chance would be a NS wave that amplified extremely far south due to the blocking. Like the 18z AI euro showed yesterday. I know normally we want stj dominant waves but that’s in winter. This late would the boundary layer be able to get cold enough?

At this point I don’t even care about a powder day. But after a low snow season and the last few weeks of extreme heat there was a risk there wouldn’t be much of an April spring season. That’s being alleviated by a cold snowy second half of March.

Looks great to me!

Remember what I said. Give me 2 conserving runs where more than one major global shows snow and I’ll pay more attention. I will accept the AIFS in that.

No it’s a perfect track for a 95 snowstorm if it wasn’t late March. I posted the mslp animation. Go through the KU book. You’ll find plenty similar tracks. Problem is it’s March in a warmer climate. You’re east of the bay. Your ideal track is east of 95 and frankly you want a track that would fringe me. That track is inside for you. But if this was winter with a normal colder airmass that is a perfect track for a big snow along 95. Maybe it mixes with sleet as is common along 95. But as you said it’s not mid winter it’s late March. Thing is 95 doesn’t want a further east track. That wouldn’t help. There is no low level cold anywhere. We want a tighly tucked bomb. We just need it to be even more amplified. 975 maybe! 970? Yea that’s crazy but that’s what it would take to overcome the time of year and low level crap air mass.

Boundary is pretty scorched on the op too

Even for my area it’s 35 during the height. It’s definitely snow but I doubt much accumulation at those temps. Places at or above 2000 feet sure!

But in seriousness @Ji the low is 985 off OC and it’s 41 in DC at the height of the storm. It’s not even close! It would need to be a ridiculously anomalous event to overcome the temps

I’m excited for the possibility of urban street flooding.

There could be some instability in meso banding. We could even see localized thunder rain!

Look at this beautiful rainstorm we get destroyed by heavy CCB rain! Stormy will be very happy

Drought buster

Control has a perfect track rainstorm too

My forecast was worse than yours because let’s be honest snow is what most care about! No one is more critical of my mistakes than me. The whole point of my participation in this thread is to analyze what happened so I don’t repeat the same mistakes. But you’re off base with the model worship stuff. Go back and read my winter forecast. There is nothing about models. It’s based on analog and pattern recognition. I messed that up just as bad as the models did, but that’s my fault. I valued the wrong variables and miscalculated some factors. This thread has had almost nothing to do with models. The long range thread often is. And we probably do rip and read day 15 crap too much. I think this has become a nasty habit born out of the fact nothing inside day 10 ever looks good recently. And I don’t feel like analyzing fiction range nonsense so I’ll engage in posting unicorn maps for fun. But we all know those day 15 maps are not likely to actually happen. And there is good discussion not model based too. Pattern recognition and analogs. And you should just contribute what you want to be disused. If something’s being missed add it. Participate. Add that value. I have no issue with your point of view. I don’t agree with some of it but so what. But why the attacks? You can make your case without them.