MickeyTim6533

EURO AI wayyyyy east

isn't 6z gfs a whiff?

Hearing reports of sleet approaching fast per Philadelphia area forum

Thank you sir!

where can I find this? love keeping an eye on this throughout day.

and the "blizzard" for next week is a whiff now

and the "blizzard" for next week is a whiff now

and the "blizzard" for next week is a whiff now

Scaling back of snow totals has begun

GFS finally gave in a bit.

GFS finally slipped a bit

Stolen from Central PA forum, great write up from CTP: Excellent write up by NWS State College in their AFD:“All in all, the probability of snowfall amounts exceeding 12inches has increased to 60-80 percent across much of centralPA. The probability of more than 18 inches ranges from 15 to 40percent. Amounts near 24 inches can`t be ruled out (10 percentchance) especially if the comma head sits over central PA Sundaynight. Always prepare for the worst case scenario and continueto check the forecast as it evolves. Now is the time to prepare.Think snow blowers, re-arranging travel plans to avoid travelduring the storm, what to do in case of a power outage, etc.Remember it will be very cold before, during and after thestorm. Never run a generator indoors due to carbon monoxide.Now if you really enjoy meteorology and want to know *why* weare predicting the most significant accumulations in the past5+ years, feel free to read on through the remainder of this KEYMESSAGE 2 discussion. We`ve had our fair share of cold snapsthis winter season, and tomorrow (Friday) will be no exceptionafter the next Arctic front pushes through. A large factordriving all this cold weather has been the Polar Vortexdisplaced from the North Pole, with a tendency for the vortex tofind itself over Hudson Bay and northern Quebec. Withdisplacement that far south, we`ve gotten plenty of cold air,but it`s also nudged the storm track south of our area for manyof the recent events. If you`ve ever heard people say "it`s toocold to snow", it`s not that it`s physically too cold to snow,it usually just means that the storm track has shifted farenough to the south that we end up under dry high pressure whileour temps are cold.One key difference this time is the influence of a Pacificstorm, located off the coast of southern California thisevening, and a strengthening subtropical jet to its south. Overthe next 24 hours these features will cross the Baja Peninsulaof Mexico and then into Texas. Southwesterly flow out ahead ofthis southern stream feature will pump warmer air into the GulfCoast and Southeastern US Saturday night into Sunday. At thesame time, a northern stream shortwave trough coming down fromwestern Canada into the Great Plains will bring a reinforcingshot of cold air to the back side of the northern longwavetrough. The increasing temperature gradients will result in anoverall increase in wind speed aloft at jet stream altitude, andan amplification of the northern stream trough and ridge. BySunday, the right entrance region of the northern jet and theleft exit region of the southern jet will align to produceenhanced upward motion through the troposphere. Remaininguncertainty in the forecast largely depends on the degree ofphasing of these two jets, the angle at which they align, andhow much amplification there is of the ridge out ahead of thedeepening trough.The very cold air in place ahead of this system also plays othercrucial roles to increase impacts. At 00Z Sunday, modelconsensus depicts a 1040+ mb high over New York State, whichonly slowly moves northeastward across New England over the next24 hours. The deep, cold blocking high to the northeast of awinter storm is a textbook feature that supplies a stream ofcold air down the Alleghenies and provides a cold dome forwarmer, less dense air parcels streaming in from the southwestto ascend over. That upward motion is key to production ofhydrometeors - in this case snow. And then there is the key rolethat cold temperatures have on ice crystal habits. The socalled "dendritic growth zone" exists where temperatures arebetween roughly 0F and 10F. Given low temperatures Saturdaynight in the single digits, some spots might start off with aDGZ that extends from the ground up 10,000 to 15,000 feet whichis pretty remarkable for a large synoptic storm in this region.As long as the column saturates quickly enough, any snow thatfalls late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning could bevery high ratio, fluffy, rapidly accumulating snow thatconsists of many pristine dendrites (SLRs 15-20:1, could beeven higher if the column saturates faster but there is dry airat low levels to overcome at onset). So after a few hours ofvirga, accumulations have the potential to begin with avengeance in the predawn hours Sunday, especially from I-80south.”

I'm new to the boards, are you always this pessimistic? LOL

geez, gfs at hour 228....wow

geez, gfs at hour 228....wow

so the storm is over by Sunday night? seems quick

sorry GFS is a beatdown

yes, I spoke too soon. sorry

GFS drier

GFS drier

got it. thank you sir

does the NAM ever lead a trend?

Nam Drier?

6Z is a crush job

6Z is a crush job