WPC: Detailed Summary:Diagnosing Henri this afternoon, the storm is feeling the effects of northerly wind sheardisplacing the storm's most intense convection just south of the low level circulation center. Thisbout of vertical wind shear will keep the storm from intensifying through the evening hours, butthe storm's westerly movement will soon lead it into an area of diminishing wind shear on Friday.At the same time, an upper level trough over the east-central U.S. will aid in the development of ahealthier poleward outflow channel that will continue into the day on Saturday. Combined with thestorm remaining over very warm water, Henri is forecast to intensify on Friday and continue to doso into Saturday. Henri's track remains highly dependent upon how intense the storm is, the amountof "tugging" it feels from the upper trough over the Mid-Atlantic, and the strength/position of theridge over New England and Quebec. Most guidance has come into a little more agreement on the stormslowing down on Sunday, weakening as it tracks over cooler waters, and coming close to a pivotanywhere from just east of the Massachusetts Capes to as far west as Long Island. How strong Henrican become over the next 24-48 hours will play a critical role in its resulting track and what typeof hazards it produces over New England.Speaking of hazards, ensemble guidance coming into a little better agreement on a track closer tothe Massachusetts Capes increases the odds of seeing significant coastal impacts to the region.Most notable hazards along the southern New England coast would include battering surf, resultingcoastal flooding and beach erosion, tropical storm force winds, and torrential rainfall. Batteringswells from Long Island to northeast Massachusetts are also likely until Henri substantiallyweakens Monday into Tuesday. Inland flooding (both flash flooding and river/stream flooding) wouldbecome increasingly problematic should Henri track farther west or more inland, especiallyfollowing the heavy rainfall from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred in recent days. However, thesituation and forecast track remains fluid. Henri could still stay further offshore and reducepotential impacts such as high winds and heavy rain, resulting in mainly coastal impacts due tohighs surf. The opposite could also be true; a more westerly track would lead to increased interiorflooding potential and more detrimental impacts to more populated areas north and west of I-95. Insummary, residents in the Northeast should keep a close eye on the latest forecast information fromthe National Hurricane Center in to the upcoming weekend, have a plan of action ready, and followthe advice of local officials.
