NC US Geological Survice

Eastern one now a pumpkin.

Doesn't have its act together. I'm buying all the shares of OTS. All hail the A.I. modelz. (AND Icon/Ukie) Edit: i know there're a lot of solutions on the table. Just following the evening hype train right now. Til tmrw folks.

I've been telling people at work, "This could be South Carolina's Florence". Do you think that will verify?

T-storm consolidation south of Hispanola now, in the Caribbean.

TriPol, Humberto doesn't kick so much as the other system escapes. Deepmind 18z suggests the position of 94L relative to Humberto, once 94L reaches about Nassau, is the key to its landfall prospects. At 26-27°N, if it's a little faster and north of due west from Humberto, some members reach SC as early as Monday night. Slower members get no farther than 28°N (about Cape Canaveral's latitude) before getting sucked toward Humberto and OTS. To my eye, it looked like a 50/50 split. Here's my take: if Humberto becomes a major east of the Bahamas, and it moderately scoots NW while growing in size, whatever 94L becomes after getting over Hispanola is gonna put on some brakes due to Fujiwhara. That's why I don't see the low making a CONUS landfall in the cards; for us in the SE U.S., the effects are then limited to coastal erosion from the two systems and maybe several inches for whoever sits along the Carolina coasts nearest the low as it gets yoinked east.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the Linc...rough. Not as rough as that former Eagle's fumble tho!! Haha

Mods, time to throttle this guy. We are likely within 10 days of significant effects to land in the NW Atl Basin. The seriousness has elevated and the maturity in the thread needs to step up.

14/10/2

00Z (eastern Gulf) and 06Z (western Gulf) also have development between the Yucatan and Cuba, June 6-10. Euro has a weaker storm in the western Gulf.

May need to zoom in but here's the run.

I believe the 18Z GFS has fired a first shot over the bow.