wthrmn654
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About wthrmn654
- Birthday 04/05/1988
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11 pm update is it's only moving north
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Erin is about the water not so much the wind.
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Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so, and Erin could become a major hurricane again tonight. Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to remain a hurricane into the weekend. Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 41002, located west of the center, has reported sustained winds of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h). The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches).
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The waters are freaking high everywhere
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2 hours ago: Unfortunately, Hurricane Erin's storm surge was too much for NC12 tonight. We will be CLOSING NC12 from Oregon Inlet to Hatteras Village at 6:30 p.m. Conditions are too unsafe for people to be driving in. If you come across any flood waters, turn around, don't drown. #ncwx
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I'm now under coastal flood warning. Well this storm has escalated lol
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We now have a fairly decent eye again
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I'm part of the NWSChat stream now and i essentially just asked them about the impacts especially coastal flooding as this storm track keeps being shifted north/ west. If that will increase areas not under costal flood watch, eastern long island for example, and other risks. I await to see if I get an answer.
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For anyone wanting a super amazing zoomable interactive any model know to humans viewer, https://nhc-display.ral.ucar.edu/nhc-display/ It's so wowing.
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Looking at the nhc model viewer for 06z run, it would appear only 2 models showed it at the most recent position, both i believe are hurricane models,.
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And, looking at the track the most recent positioning is more west versus the past few plots, maybe a wobble, or new center who knows.
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Looking at 6z model plots versus storm position the storm is west of models at its 12z position, interestingly. See photo Looking at the consensus and offical tracks north are north and west cost to when it is nearing its north east turn. They said they didn't change the forecast track but looking at the wind graphic, it's very much changed as parts are the most east long island etc are in the 5%chance now for tropical storm force winds now. I
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Buoy 41047 which was east of Erin, I think had instruments destroyed or is batteries are in bad shape.... it stopped sending wind speed last night bearing 70knts but still was sending wave and pressure readings. Waves at 40 feet might i add and a pressure reading as low at 29.15mb
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The eye is at 73W and just under 28N That seems kinda west of the last 2 eye passes from plane no?
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moderate vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence. Much of the intensity guidance suggests the hurricane should strengthen during this time, if the spread-out wind field can become more concentrated near the re-formed eyewall. On the basis of this happening, the new intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the first 36 h. However, an alternative scenario is that the central pressure falls considerably without a lot of increase in the winds as the hurricane grows larger. After 36 h, increasing shear and the start of extratropical transition should cause weakening, and Erin is now forecast to become an extratropical low by 96 h.
