SabreAce33

Tough forecast for you over the next 24 hours. Models still call for ~10 inches in SBY, but when does that fall? How much gets knocked down by the rain? How much comes on the back end? Etc., etc., etc. There's a reason NWS is so slow to decide on how to handle us a lot of the time.

I think it's related to the quantity of warm air we're talking about. The low is simply too far inshore for us. But I like that you're keeping the dream alive! Remember, we only need 30 miles.

I believe warm air aloft is a concern with the easterly flow we're expecting.

This will be our problem. I would expect a good thump up front, brief mix, extended rain, brief mix, then snow again at the backend. I would imagine the only accumulation will be a base layer of slush and then whatever comes at the end.

I suspect that's more likely to be accurate. How often do we see bay counties at 14+ inches(obviously throwing out numbers over 24" at this point)? I just don't want 24 miserable hours of cold rain...

00z GFS still likes the 8-12 range for SBY, but perhaps more importantly:

It's going to be an absolute fest over the next few days, and I will be no exception to that. Really though, I'd just like 4+ inches that doesn't end in slush.

Keep in mind, it's probably a convective feedback issue of some kind. Cut it by half and you're probably closer.

11" on the 18z GFS clown map.

18z GFS a touch south, but not as much as the 12z Euro. Haven't checked the pinpoints, but the clown map seems to be showing SBY 8-10" with the 36-40" bulls-eye in Charles County. EDIT: Bulls-eye is actually St. Mary's/Calvert. Hope that sticks for you guys!

Mighty late start here, but it looks like there's a good wallop of precip to come. Definitely not going to make anything close to 6 unless we get a ton of banding.

Snow, sleet, and graupel all in SBY now.

Love a good mesoscale discussion. Just a nasty mess outside right now. Pavement getting slippery.

Now primarily sleet in SBY.

Sleet now mixing in in SBY.

Wakefield went Winter Storm Watch for Wicomico and Dorchester after the NAM: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 948 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 MDZ021-022-042300- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0005.150305T0600Z-150306T0000Z/ DORCHESTER-WICOMICO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...SALISBURY 948 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * AREAS AFFECTED: LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. * HAZARDS: MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW...THEN SNOW LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. * TIMING: RAIN WILL MIX WITH SLEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY NOON THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION 3 TO 5 INCHES...ALONG WITH TRACE AMOUNTS OF ICE. * TEMPERATURES: LOW 30S...DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S BY EARLY EVENING. * WINDS: NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH * IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED BY MID TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND A QUARTER-MILE AT TIMES LATE MORNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING TRAVEL DANGEROUS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

While I'd love to see another 6 inches to finish off the season, my gut tells me this isn't our storm in SBY. I cannot count the number of times I've watched these storms with a tight gradient fail to cool in time for the models to verify on the central/lower shore. That said, there's always the chance that the column cools faster than anticipated and that heavy band of SN on all the maps shifts south by 50-100 miles.

Not more than a dusting in SBY, no decent rates so far.

NAM is doing some weird stuff with ratios. 5:1-10:1 with temps around 20. I haven't looked at any soundings, but I'm guessing there's a warm layer? Here's the Cobb output from the 12z run for SBY: 150216/2300Z 35 28005KT 16.6F SNOW 17:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 150217/0000Z 36 29003KT 16.4F SNOW 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150217/0100Z 37 VRB01KT 16.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 12:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0 150217/0200Z 38 VRB01KT 17.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 12:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 150217/0300Z 39 05003KT 17.1F SNOW 13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 13:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0 150217/0400Z 40 06003KT 17.3F SNOW 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058 11:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0 150217/0500Z 41 06004KT 17.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 10:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0 150217/0600Z 42 06005KT 17.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070 9:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150217/0700Z 43 04006KT 17.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 9:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0 150217/0800Z 44 03007KT 18.2F SNOW 10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 9:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0 150217/0900Z 45 04008KT 19.3F SNOW 5:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 8:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0 150217/1000Z 46 01007KT 20.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087 8:1| 4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59 100| 0| 0 150217/1100Z 47 36009KT 21.6F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 8:1| 5.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67 100| 0| 0 150217/1200Z 48 01010KT 23.4F SNOW 5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 8:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150217/1300Z 49 36010KT 23.6F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 7:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76 100| 0| 0 150217/1400Z 50 35011KT 22.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 7:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77 100| 0| 0 150217/1500Z 51 34011KT 21.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 7:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78 100| 0| 0 150217/1600Z 52 33011KT 22.0F SNOW 9:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 7:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78 100| 0| 0

A brief moment of thundersnow here in SBY. Was taking the trash out and was quite surprised by a flash of lightning to my East.

Eastern Shore welcome here too? I'm in Wicomico. Always a gamble here regarding temps and coastal low location. Curious to see if the Euro pastes us again.